Transfer Portal for Universities?

[BlinghamptonVol]

My guess is Oregon and Washington are the next to follow USC and UCLA to the big 10. Stanford also tries to follow.

I think the big 12 looks at Colorado, Utah and the Arizona schools. I doubt they just sit back and allow their teams to get picked off like the pac is doing now. Kansas could go to the big 10 bc of basketball.

The ACC’s only hope is for ND to join them.

I expect UNC, UVA and Duke to look toward the big 10. BC and Ga Tech will try to follow, similar to Stanford, saying their academics should get them invited.

FSU, Miami, and Clemson approach the SEC. SEC thinks about NC State and Va Tech with the new markets.

If the big 12 falls, where does Okie St go? Pitt opens up a market for the SEC, but, Pitt? Louisville isn’t needed market-wise in the SEC and would the Big 10 really want them? I could see them moving to the big 12.

Syracuse and Wake are done.

Or everyone one of those guesses could be completely wrong.

 

[SpookyAction]

Big 12 and Pac 12 better unite into a formal East-West Conference, at least in football. They can't each survive alone. Fox Sports will probably be working to facilitate this with a priority to keep Oregon and Washington in the league.
I just don't see the B1G taking Oregon. Population and tv footprint is too small (4 million population). Washington state population is 7.5 million. That is a big enough tv ratings prize to attract B1G interest.

I think Washington could be an attractive addition to the Big 10, but I think Oregon gets left behind, Nike endowment and all.

 

[SpookyAction]

My guess is Oregon and Washington are the next to follow USC and UCLA to the big 10. Stanford also tries to follow.

I think the big 12 looks at Colorado, Utah and the Arizona schools. I doubt they just sit back and allow their teams to get picked off like the pac is doing now. Kansas could go to the big 10 bc of basketball.

The ACC’s only hope is for ND to join them.

I expect UNC, UVA and Duke to look toward the big 10. BC and Ga Tech will try to follow, similar to Stanford, saying their academics should get them invited.

FSU, Miami, and Clemson approach the SEC. SEC thinks about NC State and Va Tech with the new markets.

If the big 12 falls, where does Okie St go? Pitt opens up a market for the SEC, but, Pitt? Louisville isn’t needed market-wise in the SEC and would the Big 10 really want them? I could see them moving to the big 12.

Syracuse and Wake are done.

Or everyone one of those guesses could be completely wrong.

The best scenario for the Big 10 would be UNC, UVA or VaTech, and Washington. They all fit culturally and academically and deliver ratings. UVA is a distant second on tv ratings to VaTech in the VA/Washingotn/Baltimore tv markets, but UVA feels like a better fit. VaTech is a better rated school than some Big 10 schools (Nebraska, for example). There is one place the SEC might make a move to keep the Big 10 from getting VaTech. I am realizing VaTech is good enough to make the academic cut for Big 10 Membership.

UNC is the other school the SEC and Big 10 will both want.

BTW, I am not thrilled about an even bigger SEC. If it expands, VaTech and UNC are the top prizes.

 

[Brave Volunteer]

That's where I saw the league goin⁰g a year or two ago.

But the USC & UCLA move this month put us past that. Pretty clear the PAC and B12 will both fall into Group of 5 level mediocrity. I think we're headed to two super-conferences. Maybe the ACC will hold out as a third. Maybe not.

I think the PAC 12 could be ok if they retain who's left and maybe add a BYU, a couple of the Texas teams like Baylor, TTU, and Houston. Maybe add Kansas (for basketball). The Pac 12 should rename their conference to something like the PCC (Pacific Coast Conference). I could see the ACC picking up Cincinnati and maybe Central Florida.

 

[TNnative]

ND would be a nice get. Love to see TN on NBC.

Notre Dame? A nice get? Ha! Maybe back in the 70's and 80's, but they are a shadow of what they once were. They are like SMU, but falling just a little slower.

 

[Okie]

Stumbled onto gold with two QB’s that were 1st round draft choices.

So those don't count?

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

The ACC is our one-stop shop for the next stage of expansion, I think. Forget Oklahoma and the left coast. Instead, we'll probably take the heart of the ACC: Clemson, Florida State, Miami, UNC, Duke, NC State, (maybe Wake Forest if the NC political leadership get involved), Virginia, and Virginia Tech.

For some of those, you gotta think beyond football to basketball. Adding Virginia and Duke may not move the meter a whole lot on the gridiron. But it adds to the prestige of the conference between December and April, for sure.

Go Vols!

Hopefully Georgia Tech, it would strengthen them at UGA's expense and we used to have a good rivalry with them back in the day.

 

[woodpusher]

I don’t think so. The buyouts will be unthinkable. And the revenue spectacular. I think you see the Big 10 and SEC expand to 24 a piece. Teams are pledging allegiance to their futures with their current moves.

With 24 schools in a conference, I don't see how you can fairly determine a conference champion without semi-finals and finals.
I would think this would limit any playoff expansion to no more than 8 - they might even stick at 4.

 

[cardvolfan]

Stumbled onto gold with two QB’s that were 1st round draft choices.

They “stumbled” onto much more than 2 really good quarterbacks.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

With 24 schools in a conference, I don't see how you can fairly determine a conference champion without semi-finals and finals.
I would think this would limit any playoff expansion to no more than 8 - they might even stick at 4.

Yeah, I think this exactly. Conference of 24 with two divisions of 12. Top two in each division play each other to get to Atlanta for conference championship game.

CFP could stay at 4, with two automatic tie-ins, the Super-SEC champ and the Super-B10 champ. Other two slots are open to the best two remaining teams in the nation. Could be from Super-SEC, or Super-B10, or one of the lesser conferences.

Would maintain an undisputed national championship while recognizing that the super-sized SEC and B10, with 48 teams between them, rule college football.

 

[Brave Volunteer]

I dont see the SEC and Big 10 adding anyone else for quite a while, unless one of them can get Notre Dame. I really believe any further expansion will be attempted by the ACC and the PAC 12 in an effort to catch up with the other two conferences.

I still think the most likely scenario is Notre Dame officially joins the ACC and one other school goes with them from the Big 12 (I'm thinking West Virginia or Cincinnati).

People think the PAC 12 is done for but I dont think so. They still have very strong, championship and/or Heisman Trophy winning programs like Oregon, Stanford, and Washington. Plus Utah is a very good program of late. Cal was once a great program and can be again. The PAC 12 could also raid the Big 12 with the addition of a BYU, which would be a great in-conference rivalry for Utah. Some of the Texas schools could join the PAC 12 like Baylor and Houston. Plus I still think Boise State from the Mountain West could be a good candidate for the PAC 12. I really do think the PAC 12 survives. The Big 12 is who ends up being the "sacrificial lamb".

I also can see more FCS programs moving up to group of 5 conferences. I think Montana is a great candidate for this. I think Deleware could move up as well. South Dakota State is another. Jacksonville State is another potential FCS program to move up. So is UMass (they're division 1 but currently independent).

 

[The Original Fade]

At this rate, what’s the point of even having conferences?

 

[Brave Volunteer]

At this rate, what’s the point of even having conferences?

Call me foolishly optimistic but I really do think this eventually stabilizes. I think the Power 5 consolidates down to the Power 4 with the dismantling of the Big 12 and there will be some current fringe power 5 programs that get relegated to group of 5 conferences as fallout from the consolidation.

 

[Okie]

At this rate, what’s the point of even having conferences?

Guaranteed money from TV contracts regardless of how well a team plays.

 

[LWSVOL]

With USC/UCLA move to bigX, seems like there may be a need for a “new” transfer portal to provide some sort of common rule set for the ongoing re-alignments. With presumably UW, UO, ND, and perhaps some random ACC schools not wanting to be left out of the big boy club, I’m thinking a possible next step in the conference evolution may be for a school to “buy-out” an existing conference member school (especially once the new TV deals are made).

ultimately, there are going to be universities get out of the athletic business. its going to be more of a headache than some academics are going to want to deal with.

there are already rumors that California and Stanford will give up athletics if the other P12 schools head to B12 or other conferences. I've not seen their names mentioned anywhere on going to another conference.

 

[willinhf]

That's where I saw the league going a year or two ago.

But the USC & UCLA move this month put us past that. Pretty clear the PAC and B12 will both fall into Group of 5 level mediocrity. I think we're headed to two super-conferences. Maybe the ACC will hold out as a third. Maybe not.

Yep, agree with this....I saw a 4 conference power league prior to USC and UCLA.....once that went down, the PAC12 is likely dead. That gets us to 3 conferences (ACC, B1G and SEC). SEC has to make a move now. They will raid the ACC and B1G will likely follow suit on that.

New D1 landscape has SEC and B1G as the two kings of the land.

I am expecting SEC to go after (in no particular order):
Clemson
FSU
Miami
VT
UVA
UNC
Duke
NC State
Ga Tech

Several of these are to keep the B1G out of those markets/states (FSU, Miami, GA Tech).

Some are for football power (VT, Clemson, FSU, Miami)--some are just historical powers more than present day but do have name recognition

Some are to increase media market (UVA, NC State)

Some are for basketball power (UNC, Duke)

 

[willinhf]

With 24 schools in a conference, I don't see how you can fairly determine a conference champion without semi-finals and finals.
I would think this would limit any playoff expansion to no more than 8 - they might even stick at 4.

Conference semi-finals and finals for B1G and SEC would essentially be the CFP. That would be 4 in SEC and 4 in B1G playing for the conference championships, and the overall CFP championship would be the winner of the SEC vs winner of B1G. and that makes it an 8 team playoff.

 

[woodpusher]

So you're going to put ~82 schools in Division I-1.5A? (I'm hearkening back to the days of I-A and I-AA).

That's quite a few. Maybe the pie will be big enough for the 48, maybe it will continue to shrink.

 

[VAVol85]

I dont see the SEC and Big 10 adding anyone else for quite a while, unless one of them can get Notre Dame. I really believe any further expansion will be attempted by the ACC and the PAC 12 in an effort to catch up with the other two conferences.

I still think the most likely scenario is Notre Dame officially joins the ACC and one other school goes with them from the Big 12 (I'm thinking West Virginia or Cincinnati).

People think the PAC 12 is done for but I dont think so. They still have very strong, championship and/or Heisman Trophy winning programs like Oregon, Stanford, and Washington. Plus Utah is a very good program of late. Cal was once a great program and can be again. The PAC 12 could also raid the Big 12 with the addition of a BYU, which would be a great in-conference rivalry for Utah. Some of the Texas schools could join the PAC 12 like Baylor and Houston. Plus I still think Boise State from the Mountain West could be a good candidate for the PAC 12. I really do think the PAC 12 survives. The Big 12 is who ends up being the "sacrificial lamb".

I also can see more FCS programs moving up to group of 5 conferences. I think Montana is a great candidate for this. I think Deleware could move up as well. South Dakota State is another. Jacksonville State is another potential FCS program to move up. So is UMass (they're division 1 but currently independent).

I think ACC survives with the addition of ND and perhaps some others (Cincinnati, WV, UCF). I am not so sure about the Pac12. Football playoff could be automatic bids to 3 conference champions and an at large team.

 

[Brave Volunteer]

I think ACC survives with the addition of ND and perhaps some others (Cincinnati, WV, UCF). I am not so sure about the Pac12. Football playoff could be automatic bids to 3 conference champions and an at large team.

The next few months are going to be interesting indeed. There's word now that North Carolina is actively seeking to get out of the ACC and join the SEC. If the ACC can convince Notre Dame to join, that MIGHT be enough of a carrot to keep NC in the conference but I dont know. I'm guessing that if the SEC takes NC, they'll have to take NC State as well. Then what happens? North Carolina is a huge TV market and would greatly devalue the ACC if they left. What about Duke? What would happen to them?

 

[VAVol85]

The next few months are going to be interesting indeed. There's word now that North Carolina is actively seeking to get out of the ACC and join the SEC. If the ACC can convince Notre Dame to join, that MIGHT be enough of a carrot to keep NC in the conference but I dont know. I'm guessing that if the SEC takes NC, they'll have to take NC State as well. Then what happens? North Carolina is a huge TV market and would greatly devalue the ACC if they left. What about Duke? What would happen to them?

I cannot see NC leaving the ACC and have to think this is a negotiating tactic.

IMHO the ACC is very poorly run with a lame ACC network that has done a poor job managing regional TV rights and a basketball tournament that is located in NY far from the center of their basketball history. The conference has potential but needs better management. Hopefully NC can force some changes.

Of course the ACC also needs ND and they need FSU, Miami, and VT not to collapse simultaneously!

 

[Brave Volunteer]

I cannot see NC leaving the ACC and have to think this is a negotiating tactic.

IMHO the ACC is very poorly run with a lame ACC network that has done a poor job managing regional TV rights and a basketball tournament that is located in NY far from the center of their basketball history. The conference has potential but needs better management. Hopefully NC can force some changes.

Of course the ACC also needs ND and they need FSU, Miami, and VT not to collapse simultaneously!

Agreed. I dont want to see the conference go away and it has enormous potential. But they need to get ND. They are crucial in bringing a significant revenue boost to the conference. Then if they want to expand further they could cherry pick some Big 12 teams like West Virginia and Cincinnati, both would be good fits for them. I could see the SEC picking up Oklahoma State eventually as well.

 

[SpookyAction]

Just say no to OkSt and MIke Gundy.
They bring zero tv ratings, so no incentive to include them to beef up our tv megadeal. The Virginia (8.6 million people) and North Carolina (10.7 million)schools are the big television prizes.