So, anyone wanna predict how Trump is going to justify tariffing the entire world under Section 122, which requires "large and serious United States balance-of-payments deficits," when our total balance-of-payments is effectively zero?
"A balance of payments deficit is not the same thing as a trade deficit."
fortune.com
While the U.S. has run a trade deficit for decades, it’s been offset by capital inflows as foreign investors pour billions into financial markets,
resulting in a net balance of zero.
“Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, on which Trump’s 10% tariff is based, does not apply in the current macro environment,” said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, in
post on X on Friday. “A balance of payments deficit is not the same thing as a trade deficit. You cannot have a balance of payments [deficit] if you have a flexible exchange rate, as the US currently does.”
Similarly, economist Alan Reynolds, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute,
pointed out that the trade deficit is fully funded by the capital account surplus, adding that there is no overall balance-of-payments deficit to justify Trump’s newest tax on imports.
Bryan Riley, director of the National Taxpayers Union’s Free Trade Initiative,
wrote in a blog post last month that Section 122 only makes sense under a fixed exchange rate, which hasn’t existed in the U.S. in more than 50 years.
Back then, when the dollar was pegged to gold, there was still a risk that the U.S. could suffer from shortages of reserves needed to cover international obligations.
But by the time the Trade Act was introduced in late 1973, the U.S. had already adopted a floating exchange rate system that was self-adjusting, eliminating the need for reserves to maintain a fixed dollar value. The bottom line is that “Section 122 was effectively rendered obsolete,” Riley explained.
“Section 122 only authorizes tariffs in the presence of a fundamental international payments problem,” he added. “Because the United States does not face such a problem, Section 122 cannot legally be used by President Trump to impose new tariffs