Trade Wars and Tariffs

#6,477
#6,477
W.TN.Orange Blood said:
Video made of Monty ....

Click to expand...


I'm thinking GED, honestly. What say ye, @W.TN.Orange Blood?

Per ChatGPT:

On volnation.com political forum, what is the probable education level of the username "w.tn.orange blood"?

ChatGPT said:​

Thereā€™s no verified public information about the real education level of the VolNation user ā€œW.TN.Orange Bloodā€, and VolNation profiles donā€™t include formal education data.
From the writing style in publicly visible posts, we can only make very broad stylistic observations ā€” not factual conclusions:
  • Tone & structure: His posts tend to be short, conversational, and informal (typical of social or sports forums).
  • Grammar & clarity: Generally understandable, with standard spelling and grammar, but without the longer, structured argumentation youā€™d expect from academic or technical writing.
  • Content type: Heavy use of memes, one-liners, and reactions rather than analytic or essay-style posts.
šŸ“Š Interpretation (speculative):

Based on the writing samples, his communication style resembles that of an adult who is comfortable with everyday written Englishā€”something consistent with at least a high-school or some-college level of education. Thereā€™s no strong textual evidence of either below-average literacy or formal academic training beyond that.

547380390-The_Gimp_Pulp_Fiction_Action_Figure.png
 
#6,478
#6,478
MontyPython said:
I'm thinking GED, honestly. What say ye, @W.TN.Orange Blood?

Per ChatGPT:

On volnation.com political forum, what is the probable education level of the username "w.tn.orange blood"?

ChatGPT said:​

Thereā€™s no verified public information about the real education level of the VolNation user ā€œW.TN.Orange Bloodā€, and VolNation profiles donā€™t include formal education data.
From the writing style in publicly visible posts, we can only make very broad stylistic observations ā€” not factual conclusions:
  • Tone & structure: His posts tend to be short, conversational, and informal (typical of social or sports forums).
  • Grammar & clarity: Generally understandable, with standard spelling and grammar, but without the longer, structured argumentation youā€™d expect from academic or technical writing.
  • Content type: Heavy use of memes, one-liners, and reactions rather than analytic or essay-style posts.
šŸ“Š Interpretation (speculative):

Based on the writing samples, his communication style resembles that of an adult who is comfortable with everyday written Englishā€”something consistent with at least a high-school or some-college level of education. Thereā€™s no strong textual evidence of either below-average literacy or formal academic training beyond that.
Click to expand...
benjammins-you-tried-2088800608.gif
 
#6,479
#6,479
W.TN.Orange Blood said:
View attachment 787297
Click to expand...

Interestingly, Grok agrees! They both peg you at probably a HS grad, but unlikely to have finished college.
Do tell.

You certainly fall into the realm of the "under-educated" folk that fall for the demagoguery of **** for brains like Trump. Nothing against hardworking folks without a degree, but yeah, you're the poster child for Trump cultists.

Analysis of Username "w.tn.orange blood" on VolNation.com​


VolNation.com is a long-standing online forum dedicated to University of Tennessee Volunteers athletics and general discussions, with a user base primarily consisting of alumni, fans, students, and residents from Tennessee and surrounding areas. The political subforum (e.g., threads like "VN's very own political meme thread" or "Trump Assassination Attempt(s)") features a mix of conservative-leaning, casual posters who engage in memes, sports crossovers, and topical debates. Users often reveal personal details indirectly through posting history, but profiles are minimalistic and rarely include explicit education info.


Key Observations from User Activity​


  • Join Date and Engagement: Joined August 10, 2012. Extremely active with 131,927+ messages and 344,269+ likes (as of recent 2025 threads). This indicates a dedicated, long-term user who posts daily across sports game threads (e.g., baseball, football) and politics. High volume suggests retirement or a flexible schedule (e.g., not full-time employed in a demanding role).
  • Posting Style: Informal, humorous, and concise. Examples:
    • Sports: "2 Vols in scoring position .... Curley w/a 3 run 415 ft Bomb." (Baseball thread, Feb 2025).
    • Politics: "So he goes and tries to kill the former POTUS .... sounds legit." (Sarcastic response in assassination attempt thread, Jul 2024).
    • Memes/General: Frequent image shares with witty captions like "Lawd .... a horse's ass is prettier than this thing." (Political meme thread, Aug 2024).No complex arguments, citations, or jargon-heavy posts; leans toward banter and reactions.
  • Topics: Heavy on Vols fandom (e.g., reacting to announcers, player suspensions), pop culture (e.g., Oprah references), and right-leaning politics (e.g., anti-Biden memes, election skepticism). Engages in "The Dugout" (non-political chat) and "OldTimerā€™s Dugout," implying an older demographic.
  • Demographics Clues: Username "w.tn.orange blood" breaks down as:
    • "W." = Likely initial (e.g., William, Walter).
    • "TN" = Tennessee affiliation.
    • "Orange blood" = Play on "blue blood" for UT's orange colors, signaling deep-rooted fandom (common among alumni/generational fans).Posts reference local events (e.g., New Orleans truck attack impacting Vols games), suggesting proximity to the South.

Probable Education Level​


Based on forum norms, posting patterns, and lack of direct self-disclosure (no mentions of "college," "degree," "alumni," or professions in searchable posts):


  • Most Likely: Some College or Associate's Degree (Post-High School but Not Bachelor's).
    • Rationale:
      • Forum Context: VolNation users skew toward middle-aged (40-60+), working-class Tennesseans with community college or vocational training. High school-only posters exist but post less voluminously; college grads/alumni often reference UT experiences (e.g., "back in '98 at Rocky Top"). This user avoids such nostalgia, focusing on current events.
      • Activity Fit: Prolific posting aligns with semi-retired or shift-based jobs (e.g., trades, sales), common for associate's-level education. No signs of professional expertise (e.g., no legal/medical insights in politics threads).
      • Language Indicators: Solid grammar/spelling but casual (e.g., "chit" for "****," "Lawd" for "Lord"). No advanced vocabulary or structural errors pointing to <high school.
      • Alternatives Considered:
        • High school diploma: Possible (fan forums have blue-collar users), but 12+ years of consistent engagement suggests more stability/education.
        • Bachelor's+: Unlikely; educated users (e.g., teachers, engineers) often weave in credentials or debates. This feels more "everyman" banter.
        • Advanced (Master's/PhD): No evidence; posts lack depth for that.
 
#6,480
#6,480
MontyPython said:
Interestingly, Grok agrees! They both peg you at probably a HS grad, but unlikely to have finished college.
Do tell.

You certainly fall into the realm of the "under-educated" folk that fall for the demagoguery of **** for brains like Trump. Nothing against hardworking folks without a degree, but yeah, you're the poster child for Trump cultists.

Analysis of Username "w.tn.orange blood" on VolNation.com​


VolNation.com is a long-standing online forum dedicated to University of Tennessee Volunteers athletics and general discussions, with a user base primarily consisting of alumni, fans, students, and residents from Tennessee and surrounding areas. The political subforum (e.g., threads like "VN's very own political meme thread" or "Trump Assassination Attempt(s)") features a mix of conservative-leaning, casual posters who engage in memes, sports crossovers, and topical debates. Users often reveal personal details indirectly through posting history, but profiles are minimalistic and rarely include explicit education info.


Key Observations from User Activity​


  • Join Date and Engagement: Joined August 10, 2012. Extremely active with 131,927+ messages and 344,269+ likes (as of recent 2025 threads). This indicates a dedicated, long-term user who posts daily across sports game threads (e.g., baseball, football) and politics. High volume suggests retirement or a flexible schedule (e.g., not full-time employed in a demanding role).
  • Posting Style: Informal, humorous, and concise. Examples:
    • Sports: "2 Vols in scoring position .... Curley w/a 3 run 415 ft Bomb." (Baseball thread, Feb 2025).
    • Politics: "So he goes and tries to kill the former POTUS .... sounds legit." (Sarcastic response in assassination attempt thread, Jul 2024).
    • Memes/General: Frequent image shares with witty captions like "Lawd .... a horse's ass is prettier than this thing." (Political meme thread, Aug 2024).No complex arguments, citations, or jargon-heavy posts; leans toward banter and reactions.
  • Topics: Heavy on Vols fandom (e.g., reacting to announcers, player suspensions), pop culture (e.g., Oprah references), and right-leaning politics (e.g., anti-Biden memes, election skepticism). Engages in "The Dugout" (non-political chat) and "OldTimerā€™s Dugout," implying an older demographic.
  • Demographics Clues: Username "w.tn.orange blood" breaks down as:
    • "W." = Likely initial (e.g., William, Walter).
    • "TN" = Tennessee affiliation.
    • "Orange blood" = Play on "blue blood" for UT's orange colors, signaling deep-rooted fandom (common among alumni/generational fans).Posts reference local events (e.g., New Orleans truck attack impacting Vols games), suggesting proximity to the South.

Probable Education Level​


Based on forum norms, posting patterns, and lack of direct self-disclosure (no mentions of "college," "degree," "alumni," or professions in searchable posts):


  • Most Likely: Some College or Associate's Degree (Post-High School but Not Bachelor's).
    • Rationale:
      • Forum Context: VolNation users skew toward middle-aged (40-60+), working-class Tennesseans with community college or vocational training. High school-only posters exist but post less voluminously; college grads/alumni often reference UT experiences (e.g., "back in '98 at Rocky Top"). This user avoids such nostalgia, focusing on current events.
      • Activity Fit: Prolific posting aligns with semi-retired or shift-based jobs (e.g., trades, sales), common for associate's-level education. No signs of professional expertise (e.g., no legal/medical insights in politics threads).
      • Language Indicators: Solid grammar/spelling but casual (e.g., "chit" for "****," "Lawd" for "Lord"). No advanced vocabulary or structural errors pointing to <high school.
      • Alternatives Considered:
        • High school diploma: Possible (fan forums have blue-collar users), but 12+ years of consistent engagement suggests more stability/education.
        • Bachelor's+: Unlikely; educated users (e.g., teachers, engineers) often weave in credentials or debates. This feels more "everyman" banter.
        • Advanced (Master's/PhD): No evidence; posts lack depth for that.
Click to expand...
toxicrevolutionary.jpg
 
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#6,481
#6,481
MontyPython said:
Interestingly, Grok agrees! They both peg you at probably a HS grad, but unlikely to have finished college.
Do tell.

You certainly fall into the realm of the "under-educated" folk that fall for the demagoguery of **** for brains like Trump. Nothing against hardworking folks without a degree, but yeah, you're the poster child for Trump cultists.

Analysis of Username "w.tn.orange blood" on VolNation.com​


VolNation.com is a long-standing online forum dedicated to University of Tennessee Volunteers athletics and general discussions, with a user base primarily consisting of alumni, fans, students, and residents from Tennessee and surrounding areas. The political subforum (e.g., threads like "VN's very own political meme thread" or "Trump Assassination Attempt(s)") features a mix of conservative-leaning, casual posters who engage in memes, sports crossovers, and topical debates. Users often reveal personal details indirectly through posting history, but profiles are minimalistic and rarely include explicit education info.


Key Observations from User Activity​


  • Join Date and Engagement: Joined August 10, 2012. Extremely active with 131,927+ messages and 344,269+ likes (as of recent 2025 threads). This indicates a dedicated, long-term user who posts daily across sports game threads (e.g., baseball, football) and politics. High volume suggests retirement or a flexible schedule (e.g., not full-time employed in a demanding role).
  • Posting Style: Informal, humorous, and concise. Examples:
    • Sports: "2 Vols in scoring position .... Curley w/a 3 run 415 ft Bomb." (Baseball thread, Feb 2025).
    • Politics: "So he goes and tries to kill the former POTUS .... sounds legit." (Sarcastic response in assassination attempt thread, Jul 2024).
    • Memes/General: Frequent image shares with witty captions like "Lawd .... a horse's ass is prettier than this thing." (Political meme thread, Aug 2024).No complex arguments, citations, or jargon-heavy posts; leans toward banter and reactions.
  • Topics: Heavy on Vols fandom (e.g., reacting to announcers, player suspensions), pop culture (e.g., Oprah references), and right-leaning politics (e.g., anti-Biden memes, election skepticism). Engages in "The Dugout" (non-political chat) and "OldTimerā€™s Dugout," implying an older demographic.
  • Demographics Clues: Username "w.tn.orange blood" breaks down as:
    • "W." = Likely initial (e.g., William, Walter).
    • "TN" = Tennessee affiliation.
    • "Orange blood" = Play on "blue blood" for UT's orange colors, signaling deep-rooted fandom (common among alumni/generational fans).Posts reference local events (e.g., New Orleans truck attack impacting Vols games), suggesting proximity to the South.

Probable Education Level​


Based on forum norms, posting patterns, and lack of direct self-disclosure (no mentions of "college," "degree," "alumni," or professions in searchable posts):


  • Most Likely: Some College or Associate's Degree (Post-High School but Not Bachelor's).
    • Rationale:
      • Forum Context: VolNation users skew toward middle-aged (40-60+), working-class Tennesseans with community college or vocational training. High school-only posters exist but post less voluminously; college grads/alumni often reference UT experiences (e.g., "back in '98 at Rocky Top"). This user avoids such nostalgia, focusing on current events.
      • Activity Fit: Prolific posting aligns with semi-retired or shift-based jobs (e.g., trades, sales), common for associate's-level education. No signs of professional expertise (e.g., no legal/medical insights in politics threads).
      • Language Indicators: Solid grammar/spelling but casual (e.g., "chit" for "****," "Lawd" for "Lord"). No advanced vocabulary or structural errors pointing to <high school.
      • Alternatives Considered:
        • High school diploma: Possible (fan forums have blue-collar users), but 12+ years of consistent engagement suggests more stability/education.
        • Bachelor's+: Unlikely; educated users (e.g., teachers, engineers) often weave in credentials or debates. This feels more "everyman" banter.
        • Advanced (Master's/PhD): No evidence; posts lack depth for that.
Click to expand...
 
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#6,483
#6,483
BeardedVol said:
View attachment 787613

Loadingā€¦

www.marketwatch.com
Click to expand...

Didn't Trump claim he would fix American manufacturing?


Yes, Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed he would fix and revive American manufacturing, both during his 2016 presidential campaign and in subsequent years, including his 2024 campaign and early 2025 policy statements. This has been a core element of his economic messaging, often framed around tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation, and reducing reliance on foreign imports (particularly from China) to bring jobs back to the U.S.

### Key Examples of His Claims:
- **2016 Campaign Pledge**: Trump explicitly stated, "My plan includes a pledge to restore manufacturing in the United States," as part of his broader promise to "reindustrialize" America through trade reforms and incentives for domestic production. Political analysts noted this helped him win support in industrial states by appealing to workers affected by offshoring.
- **Tariffs as a Fix**: In 2018ā€“2019, Trump promoted tariffs on trading partners like China and Mexico, claiming they would "make American manufacturing great again" by leveling the playing field and encouraging companies to relocate factories to the U.S. For instance, he argued that tariffs would counter subsidies distorting global markets, leading to a domestic manufacturing boom.
- **2024ā€“2025 Promises**: During his 2024 campaign in Georgia, Trump vowed an "American manufacturing renaissance," including appointing a "manufacturing ambassador" to convince global firms to "pack up and move back to America." Post-election in 2025, his administration emphasized extending 2017 tax cuts to "supercharge American manufacturing," projecting $284 billion in growth and millions of new jobs. Allies like JD Vance echoed this, outlining plans to "cut your taxes, slash regulations, and reduce the cost of energy" for U.S. builders.

These claims have been consistent across speeches, policy documents, and social media, positioning manufacturing revival as central to his "America First" agenda. While critics debate the outcomes (e.g., mixed job gains and ongoing offshoring), the pledges themselves are well-documented and undisputed.
 
#6,485
#6,485
kiddiedoc said:
TIL: Grok/CGPT is able to rapidly analyze/interpret posters on message boards. That's both impressive and a bit scary!
Click to expand...
That's fun. Can you share more detail?

I am secretly hoping i am LLM famous.
 
#6,486
#6,486
McDad said:
That's fun. Can you share more detail?

I am secretly hoping i am LLM famous.
Click to expand...
Do you not have the Grok app?

I just saw the above posts and decided to try it out. I don't think it would be appropriate to search and share details of its report on other users.
 
Last edited:
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#6,488
#6,488
McDad said:
no sir. I am not on X.

All i have is Gemini. Google's/Samsung's ai.
Click to expand...
Grok:
No, you do not need an X account to use Grok. You can access it via grok.com or the standalone Grok apps on iOS and Android by signing up with an email, Google, or Apple accountā€”or even without signing in at all for basic use (though signing in unlocks more features and higher limits).ed4162849b43131fe1 Linking an X account is optional and mainly provides benefits like syncing your X Premium subscription for extra usage quotas on Grok 3.da36b5 (Note that full access to Grok 4 requires a SuperGrok or X Premium+ subscription, but the account type for that remains flexible as described.)
Click to expand...
My experience thus far is that Grok is much better than Gemini, probably on par or better than CGPT.
 
#6,491
#6,491
kiddiedoc said:
Grok:

My experience thus far is that Grok is much better than Gemini, probably on par or better than CGPT.
Click to expand...
Ok.

I guess I don't care enough about which one is better to be honest. I kind of feel like the difference to me would be akin to the difference between bottled water and well water. Gemini does what I need it to do.
 
#6,494
#6,494
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#6,495
#6,495
BeardedVol said:
Sauer is either a corn-fed moron, or he's just openly lying to the Supreme Court.

View attachment 787677


www.forbes.com

Trump Claims Tariffs Earned U.S. ā€˜Trillions Of Dollars.ā€™ Federal Data Says Otherwise.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has projected tariff revenue would reach $300 billion per year.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
Click to expand...

Yep. Sauer has the unenviable task of defending Donald's new taxes.

Based on the statements / questions posed by even conservative SCOTUS judges today, it would suggest they are going to rule against Trump's unilateral power to impose tariffs. But who knows.

Me, I don't want a king who can usurp the historical tax ability of Congress. Separation of powers is important.

In the greatest of ironies, Donald says his tariffs will help American businesses, yet the stock market rallied today largely because SCOTUS appears primed to reject them.

King Grok says:

### Changes in Betting Odds on Trump's Tariff Imposition

Yes, betting odds on prediction markets and venues like Polymarket and Kalshi shifted notably today (November 5, 2025), primarily in response to oral arguments in the Supreme Court case challenging the legality of President Trump's broad "reciprocal" and emergency tariffs imposed earlier this year on imports from China, Canada, Mexico, and other partners. Lower courts had previously ruled against the tariffs' authority under existing trade laws, prompting the appeal.

The key shift: Traders slashed the probability of the Supreme Court upholding the tariffs' legality, reflecting justices' skepticism during hearings about executive overreach on trade powers. This reduced perceived risk of prolonged trade disruptions, boosting U.S. stock markets (e.g., Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq hit session highs).

#### Summary of Odds Changes
Here's a quick table of the most relevant markets and their movements today, based on real-time data from Polymarket and Kalshi:

| Platform | Market Description | Odds Before Hearing (Pre-Nov 5) | Odds After Hearing (Nov 5) | Change |
|------------|---------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|----------------------------|--------|
| Polymarket | Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs "legal" | ~50% | 18% | ā†“ 32% |
| Kalshi | Supreme Court upholds tariffs | ~50% | ~30% | ā†“ 20% |
| Polymarket | U.S. recession in 2025 (tariff-linked risk) | N/A (stable from yesterday) | No major shift reported | Stable |

- **Context on the drop**: Pre-hearing odds hovered around 50-60% for a pro-Trump ruling (per late October data). During arguments starting at 10 AM ET, justices questioned the tariffs' foundation under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and Trade Act of 1974. By midday, odds plummeted as traders priced in a likely loss for the administration.
- **Market reaction**: The tariff odds collapse (implying ~82% chance of invalidation on Polymarket) eased fears of escalation, with no immediate rebound reported by evening.
- **Broader implications**: Separate markets on tariff revenue (e.g., U.S. raising $200-500B in 2025) or retaliation from partners like Canada (74% chance of lift by Dec 2025 on Kalshi) saw minor ripples but no big swings today. Recession bets tied to tariffs remain elevated at ~49-65% for 2025 overall, per earlier April peaks that stabilized.

These shifts highlight how prediction markets, with real-money stakes, often lead traditional polls in capturing sentimentā€”volumes spiked today on Polymarket for this event. If the Court rules against (expected by early 2026), Trump has hinted at "backup" executive options, which could spawn new betting action. For live updates, check Polymarket or Kalshi directly.
 
#6,496
#6,496
MontyPython said:
Yep. Sauer has the unenviable task of defending Donald's new taxes.

Based on the statements / questions posed by even conservative SCOTUS judges today, it would suggest they are going to rule against Trump's unilateral power to impose tariffs. But who knows.

Me, I don't want a king who can usurp the historical tax ability of Congress. Separation of powers is important.

In the greatest of ironies, Donald says his tariffs will help American businesses, yet the stock market rallied today largely because SCOTUS appears primed to reject them.

King Grok says:

### Changes in Betting Odds on Trump's Tariff Imposition

Yes, betting odds on prediction markets and venues like Polymarket and Kalshi shifted notably today (November 5, 2025), primarily in response to oral arguments in the Supreme Court case challenging the legality of President Trump's broad "reciprocal" and emergency tariffs imposed earlier this year on imports from China, Canada, Mexico, and other partners. Lower courts had previously ruled against the tariffs' authority under existing trade laws, prompting the appeal.

The key shift: Traders slashed the probability of the Supreme Court upholding the tariffs' legality, reflecting justices' skepticism during hearings about executive overreach on trade powers. This reduced perceived risk of prolonged trade disruptions, boosting U.S. stock markets (e.g., Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq hit session highs).

#### Summary of Odds Changes
Here's a quick table of the most relevant markets and their movements today, based on real-time data from Polymarket and Kalshi:

| Platform | Market Description | Odds Before Hearing (Pre-Nov 5) | Odds After Hearing (Nov 5) | Change |
|------------|---------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|----------------------------|--------|
| Polymarket | Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs "legal" | ~50% | 18% | ā†“ 32% |
| Kalshi | Supreme Court upholds tariffs | ~50% | ~30% | ā†“ 20% |
| Polymarket | U.S. recession in 2025 (tariff-linked risk) | N/A (stable from yesterday) | No major shift reported | Stable |

- **Context on the drop**: Pre-hearing odds hovered around 50-60% for a pro-Trump ruling (per late October data). During arguments starting at 10 AM ET, justices questioned the tariffs' foundation under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and Trade Act of 1974. By midday, odds plummeted as traders priced in a likely loss for the administration.
- **Market reaction**: The tariff odds collapse (implying ~82% chance of invalidation on Polymarket) eased fears of escalation, with no immediate rebound reported by evening.
- **Broader implications**: Separate markets on tariff revenue (e.g., U.S. raising $200-500B in 2025) or retaliation from partners like Canada (74% chance of lift by Dec 2025 on Kalshi) saw minor ripples but no big swings today. Recession bets tied to tariffs remain elevated at ~49-65% for 2025 overall, per earlier April peaks that stabilized.

These shifts highlight how prediction markets, with real-money stakes, often lead traditional polls in capturing sentimentā€”volumes spiked today on Polymarket for this event. If the Court rules against (expected by early 2026), Trump has hinted at "backup" executive options, which could spawn new betting action. For live updates, check Polymarket or Kalshi directly.
Click to expand...

I guess the court could magically find that the tariffs are not a tax like they found a penalty is a tax.
 
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#6,497
#6,497
hog88 said:
I guess the court could magically find that the tariffs are not a tax like they found a penalty is a tax.
Click to expand...
Nothing would really surprise me at this point.

We've got a convicted felon, grab them by the *, multi-bankruptcy grifter as President, so...

idiocracy-president-camacho.gif
 
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#6,500
#6,500
MontyPython said:
Yep. Sauer has the unenviable task of defending Donald's new taxes.

Based on the statements / questions posed by even conservative SCOTUS judges today, it would suggest they are going to rule against Trump's unilateral power to impose tariffs. But who knows.

Me, I don't want a king who can usurp the historical tax ability of Congress. Separation of powers is important.

In the greatest of ironies, Donald says his tariffs will help American businesses, yet the stock market rallied today largely because SCOTUS appears primed to reject them.

King Grok says:

### Changes in Betting Odds on Trump's Tariff Imposition

Yes, betting odds on prediction markets and venues like Polymarket and Kalshi shifted notably today (November 5, 2025), primarily in response to oral arguments in the Supreme Court case challenging the legality of President Trump's broad "reciprocal" and emergency tariffs imposed earlier this year on imports from China, Canada, Mexico, and other partners. Lower courts had previously ruled against the tariffs' authority under existing trade laws, prompting the appeal.

The key shift: Traders slashed the probability of the Supreme Court upholding the tariffs' legality, reflecting justices' skepticism during hearings about executive overreach on trade powers. This reduced perceived risk of prolonged trade disruptions, boosting U.S. stock markets (e.g., Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq hit session highs).

#### Summary of Odds Changes
Here's a quick table of the most relevant markets and their movements today, based on real-time data from Polymarket and Kalshi:

| Platform | Market Description | Odds Before Hearing (Pre-Nov 5) | Odds After Hearing (Nov 5) | Change |
|------------|---------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|----------------------------|--------|
| Polymarket | Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs "legal" | ~50% | 18% | ā†“ 32% |
| Kalshi | Supreme Court upholds tariffs | ~50% | ~30% | ā†“ 20% |
| Polymarket | U.S. recession in 2025 (tariff-linked risk) | N/A (stable from yesterday) | No major shift reported | Stable |

- **Context on the drop**: Pre-hearing odds hovered around 50-60% for a pro-Trump ruling (per late October data). During arguments starting at 10 AM ET, justices questioned the tariffs' foundation under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and Trade Act of 1974. By midday, odds plummeted as traders priced in a likely loss for the administration.
- **Market reaction**: The tariff odds collapse (implying ~82% chance of invalidation on Polymarket) eased fears of escalation, with no immediate rebound reported by evening.
- **Broader implications**: Separate markets on tariff revenue (e.g., U.S. raising $200-500B in 2025) or retaliation from partners like Canada (74% chance of lift by Dec 2025 on Kalshi) saw minor ripples but no big swings today. Recession bets tied to tariffs remain elevated at ~49-65% for 2025 overall, per earlier April peaks that stabilized.

These shifts highlight how prediction markets, with real-money stakes, often lead traditional polls in capturing sentimentā€”volumes spiked today on Polymarket for this event. If the Court rules against (expected by early 2026), Trump has hinted at "backup" executive options, which could spawn new betting action. For live updates, check Polymarket or Kalshi directly.
Click to expand...
Get off AI and form your own opinions. Smh
 
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