Trade Wars and Tariffs

[MontyPython]

Given the fact that beef prices are already skyrocketing due to record low herd levels as a result of policies and events over the previous four years, I'm not a huge fan of increasing demand for US beef right now.

Spoke to my local Publix beef department dude recently and asked him what’s up with beef prices going crazy. He said farmers can’t find people to work for them… lots of peeps bugging out due to deportation concerns.

*shocking*

 

[whodeycin85]

It’s not that black and white.

Some tariffs will be ate by the importer more than others due to having to stay competitive. There is a breaking point where the importer has to raise cost due to margins or the exporter had to lower the cost which effectively reduces the importer tariff side.

Anyone who makes this sound simple is not being honest. Every trade, every manufacture, every important and export will have to handle this differently. It’s not a one size fits all situation.

This is the exact reason that economist are wrong more often the meteorologist.. could everyone agree that the world needs the US market more then we need them??

 

[hog88]

Spoke to my local Publix beef department dude recently and asked him what’s up with beef prices going crazy. He said farmers can’t find people to work for them… lots of peeps bugging out due to deportation concerns.

*shocking*

 

[LouderVol]

The rich buy more shizz so they will pay more.

Willing to bet their percentage of imports is probably higher than the average american too.

 

[lawgator1]

So now you're against taxes?

I'm for sure against ones that people don't understand. It is still remarkable to me the dumbfounded looks I get when I have conversations with my conservative or MAGA friends and I explain to them that the other countries, their governments, aren't paying the tariffs.

Its worse than not understanding that its a price increase or (as the below post argues, could be absorbed by the foreign company making the product). These folks actually think that when Trump says he's putting a "tariff on China" they believe that means the country of China is paying for it.

It’s not that black and white.

Some tariffs will be ate by the importer more than others due to having to stay competitive. There is a breaking point where the importer has to raise cost due to margins or the exporter had to lower the cost which effectively reduces the importer tariff side.

Anyone who makes this sound simple is not being honest. Every trade, every manufacture, every important and export will have to handle this differently. It’s not a one size fits all situation.

Some exporters will absorb the cost for competitive reasons to keep costs lower that their counterparts, sure. But how many? To what extent? And for what length of time?

 

[hog88]

I'm for sure against ones that people don't understand. It is still remarkable to me the dumbfounded looks I get when I have conversations with my conservative or MAGA friends and I explain to them that the other countries, their governments, aren't paying the tariffs.

Its worse than not understanding that its a price increase or (as the below post argues, could be absorbed by the foreign company making the product). These folks actually think that when Trump says he's putting a "tariff on China" they believe that means the country of China is paying for it.




Some exporters will absorb the cost for competitive reasons to keep costs lower that their counterparts, sure. But how many? To what extent? And for what length of time?

Are these like your black friends? Imaginary.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

Spoke to my local Publix beef department dude recently and asked him what’s up with beef prices going crazy. He said farmers can’t find people to work for them… lots of peeps bugging out due to deportation concerns.

*shocking*

Publix. Good prices there for sure.

 

[whodeycin85]

I'm for sure against ones that people don't understand. It is still remarkable to me the dumbfounded looks I get when I have conversations with my conservative or MAGA friends and I explain to them that the other countries, their governments, aren't paying the tariffs.

Its worse than not understanding that its a price increase or (as the below post argues, could be absorbed by the foreign company making the product). These folks actually think that when Trump says he's putting a "tariff on China" they believe that means the country of China is paying for it.




Some exporters will absorb the cost for competitive reasons to keep costs lower that their counterparts, sure. But how many? To what extent? And for what length of time?

So if an exporter doesn't absorb the cost and gets priced outta the market because the product can be done locally cheaper then isn't that good for the US industry???? And to that extent why wouldnt any company bend over backwards to stay competitive in the biggest economy???

 

[LouderVol]

I'm for sure against ones that people don't understand. It is still remarkable to me the dumbfounded looks I get when I have conversations with my conservative or MAGA friends and I explain to them that the other countries, their governments, aren't paying the tariffs.

Its worse than not understanding that its a price increase or (as the below post argues, could be absorbed by the foreign company making the product). These folks actually think that when Trump says he's putting a "tariff on China" they believe that means the country of China is paying for it.




Some exporters will absorb the cost for competitive reasons to keep costs lower that their counterparts, sure. But how many? To what extent? And for what length of time?

lol, go talk to any person off the street about income taxes. you won't find any understanding there either. heck you have idiots on this board who don't understand it complaining about the rich not paying the right amount. when in actuality the more correct statement is that 99% of us overpay on income taxes because we don't have the ability to use all the tools the rich have access to.

 

[LouderVol]

So if an exporter doesn't absorb the cost and gets priced outta the market because the product can be done locally cheaper then isn't that good for the US industry???? And to that extent why wouldnt any company bend over backwards to stay competitive in the biggest economy???

they probably know they can just wait a few years and bribe the next president to change it.

that is if Trump doesn't TACO on the matter.

 

[whodeycin85]

they probably know they can just wait a few years and bribe the next president to change it.

that is if Trump doesn't TACO on the matter.

That doesn't answer the question...seems like a snarky remark and orange man bad...thanks for your input.

 

[lawgator1]

Are these like your black friends? Imaginary.

I have many friends, of all political stripes. Most care only about the bottom line to them. Occasionally we dig deeper, and that is where the wheels tend to come off.

Not saying the same isn't true of my left-leaning friends, too. They tend to also think in simple absolutes, based on the way things are presented by whatever source they listen to.

I rarely listen to CNN now because their anti-Trump agenda is often so dominating of the conversation that they do not articulate facts accurately. Haven't watched Fox for years, because candidly they are far worse at "packaging" the facts in a slanted way. I like CNBC now, and I appreciate that the hosts don't hide their preferences and debate one another (and their guests) in an at least somewhat broader manner than sound bites.

 

[lawgator1]

So if an exporter doesn't absorb the cost and gets priced outta the market because the product can be done locally cheaper then isn't that good for the US industry???? And to that extent why wouldnt any company bend over backwards to stay competitive in the biggest economy???

No, not as simple as that.

Pre tariff:

U.S. company makes widgets and sells them for $5.
Chinese company makes a similar widget for less and sells it for $2.

Post tariffs:

Chinese company now charges $10 for the same widget.
U.S. company sells it again for $5.


Sure, the U.S. company benefits, at least in the short run. But now the American consumer pays $5 when he used to pay $2.

 

[volfanhill]

Spoke to my local Publix beef department dude recently and asked him what’s up with beef prices going crazy. He said farmers can’t find people to work for them… lots of peeps bugging out due to deportation concerns.

*shocking*

99% not the problem. My company owns two of the largest fine dinning steak houses and the second largest casual dinning steakhouse. The Publix meat guy has his head up his ass. At best a minor contributing factor.

Which this, surprisingly, is good for us. Steak restaurants are killing it right now.

 

[LouderVol]

That doesn't answer the question...seems like a snarky remark and orange man bad...thanks for your input.

you asked why a company, I am assuming foreign ones, wouldn't do what they could to stay competitive, I answered. just wait. its not orange man bad to say our FP changes every 4 years. and pointing out Trump's history on the matter is pretty dang relevant to the discussion.

how good it is to American companies depends on a couple things. how long the policy lasts, see the 4 year comment. if the tariffs stick around at the same rates, see comments about TACO Trump. the volatility hurts american companies too, a lot of big money is sitting on the side waiting for calmer water, whether its high tide or low when it settles.

its also a presumptive conclusion to say the american consumer is going to come out of this any better. again at some point the tariffs are taking even more money out of the private money pool and sending it into the blackhole of the US government. hard to argue less money in private hands helps any business outside of the MIC.

 

[whodeycin85]

No, not as simple as that.

Pre tariff:

U.S. company makes widgets and sells them for $5.
Chinese company makes a similar widget for less and sells it for $2.

Post tariffs:

Chinese company now charges $10 for the same widget.
U.S. company sells it again for $5.


Sure, the U.S. company benefits, at least in the short run. But now the American consumer pays $5 when he used to pay $2.

sounds like a bad idea for the Chinese company to make that jump. And given that countries that utilize slave labor and child labor (I know your love you cheap and child labor) they should be tarriffs higher..I mean if we are for all people in the world .I'd gladly pay more to know some staging child didn't work 16 hours mare 25cents just to make a product..

 

[Orangeburst]

No, not as simple as that.

Pre tariff:

U.S. company makes widgets and sells them for $5.
Chinese company makes a similar widget for less and sells it for $2.

Post tariffs:

Chinese company now charges $10 for the same widget.
U.S. company sells it again for $5.


Sure, the U.S. company benefits, at least in the short run. But now the American consumer pays $5 when he used to pay $2.

The US is putting a 500% tariff on Chinese goods?

 

[whodeycin85]

you asked why a company, I am assuming foreign ones, wouldn't do what they could to stay competitive, I answered. just wait. its not orange man bad to say our FP changes every 4 years. and pointing out Trump's history on the matter is pretty dang relevant to the discussion.

how good it is to American companies depends on a couple things. how long the policy lasts, see the 4 year comment. if the tariffs stick around at the same rates, see comments about TACO Trump. the volatility hurts american companies too, a lot of big money is sitting on the side waiting for calmer water, whether its high tide or low when it settles.

its also a presumptive conclusion to say the american consumer is going to come out of this any better. again at some point the tariffs are taking even more money out of the private money pool and sending it into the blackhole of the US government. hard to argue less money in private hands helps any business outside of the MIC.

So how do you resolve the FP changes every 4 years..seems the current system is set to be volital. And I agree the gov doesn't need more money...I think this is a start to getting rid of income tax in stages.

 

[volfanhill]

sounds like a bad idea for the Chinese company to make that jump. And given that countries that utilize slave labor and child labor (I know your love you cheap and child labor) they should be tarriffs higher..I mean if we are for all people in the world .I'd gladly pay more to know some staging child didn't work 16 hours mare 25cents just to make a product..

So you good with that child and his family, starving to death, bc without his income they can't eat?

Why do you think the kids work? For fun?

The family is screwed wothout that income. Same reason American children worked at young ages back in the day

 

[whodeycin85]

So you good with that child and his family, starving to death, bc without his income they can't eat?

2 sides of the same coin
.at least in 1 aspect I'm not directly complicit...in the other that on the government to take care of their people...

 

[volfanhill]

2 sides of the same coin
.at least in 1 aspect I'm not directly complicit...in the other that on the government to take care of their people...

Your not directly complicit in helping that child feed himself and family? Strange stance but ok

 

[whodeycin85]

Your not directly complicit in helping that child feed himself and family? Strange stance but ok

I'm not directly complicit in child or slave labor if I don't purchase the product....so accept child and slave labor?

 

[volfanhill]

I'm not directly complicit in child or slave labor if I don't purchase the product....so accept child and slave labor?

I accept that every where in the world is different. I accept that some places, much like us at one time, have an economy that requires child labor. They aren't working for fun. I'd prefer for them to not starve.

 

[LouderVol]

So how do you resolve the FP changes every 4 years..seems the current system is set to be volital. And I agree the gov doesn't need more money...I think this is a start to getting rid of income tax in stages.

On the whole I agree there is some short sighted-ness based on moving all the jobs offshore because you lose that income base to buy your products. but I think its foolish to think all or even most of the jobs would come back.

I think one of the best options will be AI and robots, and that will come down to energy costs.

as far as FP I would go by trends. Trump is probably more of a bump in the road rather than a change in direction. I think if it was anyone but Trump, due to the base reaction against Trump; and if things had been more smooth, the tariffs could have been a long term thing. but I think the general handling of them have been bad enough where even if the impact isn't felt by consumers the decisions makers will pull away from any large reliance on tariffs as FP tools or the basis of most federal tax dollars.

I am still on record with this take on Trump. I don't think the worst part of what he is doing is WHAT he is doing; but HOW he is doing it.

 

[NEO]

The US is putting a 500% tariff on Chinese goods?

500 percent is nuts.

Basically telling a country you are done here.

Absolutely nothing they, the exporter or importer can do at that point to remain operating.