Trade Wars and Tariffs

#5,832
#5,832
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Somehow they don’t think that a level playing field is fair. At least that’s the narrative that they’re selling. They’re sure missing the Clintons, Bushes, and Biden.
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The #1 issue with the EU is that they are too stupid (or corrupt) to do what USA is doing and protect their own industry. They have almost 0 tariff against China and China is raping their industry. EU really needs to lock down its economic borders and put tariffs on the Asia region to save their own industry.

I wouldn't be surprised if some European nation (like Germany) goes 1930s Fascists in the next 10 years because their youth can't find employment.
 
#5,833
#5,833
volbound1700 said:
The #1 issue with the EU is that they are too stupid (or corrupt) to do what USA is doing and protect their own industry. They have almost 0 tariff against China and China is raping their industry. EU really needs to lock down its economic borders and put tariffs on the Asia region to save their own industry.

I wouldn't be surprised if some European nation (like Germany) goes 1930s Fascists in the next 10 years because their youth can't find employment.
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alot of it is that Net Zero crap. Carney in Canada was talking about getting an energy deal with EU and mentioned they would have to pay the carbon tax, which is crazy. I wouldnt imagine the US has to pay it on our deal.
 
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#5,834
#5,834
volbound1700 said:
The #1 issue with the EU is that they are too stupid (or corrupt) to do what USA is doing and protect their own industry. They have almost 0 tariff against China and China is raping their industry. EU really needs to lock down its economic borders and put tariffs on the Asia region to save their own industry.

I wouldn't be surprised if some European nation (like Germany) goes 1930s Fascists in the next 10 years because their youth can't find employment.
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They'll be a socialist country in no time
 
#5,835
#5,835
Thunder Good-Oil said:
The concessions is that they get to keep access to the US consumer. If Belgium doesn’t like it they can kick rocks.
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This is the main point that the "I hate everything Trump" crowd keeps ignoring or is too consumed by TDS to understand. They want to paint a picture that Trump is mean and therefore levying tariffs and causing inflation(which hasn't happened). The fact is that America has been paying tariffs to Europe(Including Belgium) through VAT and tariffs. They also paid enormous penalties to Canada for dairy which all but shut out American dairy farmers to Canada. Those countries were not whining about inflation because the goods from America were taxed, tariffed and VATed. They need access to sell to America more than the opposite. Trump is the only one with the guts and determination to take this on and he is winning. Countless Republican and Democrat Admins have punted this issue for years and the trade deficit has continued to rise as a result. Once all the trade deals are in place, the economy will really take off whether the TDS crowd likes it or not.
 
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#5,839
#5,839
jmacvols1 said:
language warning


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In fairness to him, and in fairness to 95 % of the world's economists, when the tariffs were first announced and the numbers being thrown around were 45 % and the like, the projections were earnest and -- we will never know for sure -- perhaps correct. But what has happened is that trade deals have been made and actual tariffs have been anything from zero to 15 % -- a third of what was originally proposed by Trump. Or less.

You can decide for yourself whether the plan all along was to wind up with much smaller actual tariffs, or whether that is what we have ended up with as a result of the TACO phenomenon.

The next battleground for the economy is sticky inflation and whether and to what extent that both drives interest rate decisions, and is affected by interest rate decisions. I'd hate long term for us to be "okay" with 2.5 to 2.7 percent annual inflation. That extra .5 to .7 adds up quick (in the scheme of things). But it could be a reality for a long time.
 
#5,841
#5,841
lawgator1 said:
In fairness to him, and in fairness to 95 % of the world's economists, when the tariffs were first announced and the numbers being thrown around were 45 % and the like, the projections were earnest and -- we will never know for sure -- perhaps correct. But what has happened is that trade deals have been made and actual tariffs have been anything from zero to 15 % -- a third of what was originally proposed by Trump. Or less.

You can decide for yourself whether the plan all along was to wind up with much smaller actual tariffs, or whether that is what we have ended up with as a result of the TACO phenomenon.

The next battleground for the economy is sticky inflation and whether and to what extent that both drives interest rate decisions, and is affected by interest rate decisions. I'd hate long term for us to be "okay" with 2.5 to 2.7 percent annual inflation. That extra .5 to .7 adds up quick (in the scheme of things). But it could be a reality for a long time.
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t believe the high tarriff numbers were just to get countries to the negotiating table, Trump had no intention of hurting other countries long term with high tarriffs but scaled those tarriffs back in negotiations. He delayed tarriffs at times to allow for negotiations in order to get concessions rather than rigidly harm countries with high tarriffs. The taco thing was ridiculous, Trump got what he wanted, never chickened out....negotiations are always fluid.



Current inflation is less than the average for the last several decades, I would like to see it at 1.5%

from GROK: (note how GROK tries to give Biden a pass in years 2021-2024)

Based on available data, the average inflation rate from 1960 to 2024 is reported as 3.8% per year.

1995–2000: Inflation was relatively low and stable, averaging around 2.5–3.0% annually, with years like 1998 at 1.6% and 2000 at 3.4%.

2001–2008: Inflation fluctuated, with a low of 1.6% in 2002 and a peak of 4.1% in 2007, averaging roughly 2.8% during this period.

2009–2015: Post-financial crisis, inflation was subdued, often below 2%, with 2015 at 0.7% and an average of about 1.5%.

2016–2020: Inflation remained stable, averaging around 1.8–2.2%, with 2018 at 1.9% and 2020 at 1.2%.

2021–2024: Inflation spiked significantly, reaching 7.0% in 2021, 6.5% in 2022, 3.4% in 2023, and 2.9% in 2024, driven by post-COVID demand, supply chain issues, and energy prices
 
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#5,842
#5,842
volbound1700 said:
Not sure about socialism or not but I know jobs are leaving Europe in droves and young people can't find work. It is all because they won't tariff the nations that are stealing their jobs/future: China and India.
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JFC...nations are not tariffed.

Goods from other nations are tariffed, and importers pay the tariff.

You guys have listened to Trump repeat that nonsense so many times that you've let it rot a hole in your brain.

Just like the US, the EU could tariff the hell out of Chinese goods, and companies still wouldn't repatriate low-end manufacturing to the EU, they'd just continue to find ways around the tariffs.
 
#5,843
#5,843
lawgator1 said:
In fairness to him, and in fairness to 95 % of the world's economists, when the tariffs were first announced and the numbers being thrown around were 45 % and the like, the projections were earnest and -- we will never know for sure -- perhaps correct. But what has happened is that trade deals have been made and actual tariffs have been anything from zero to 15 % -- a third of what was originally proposed by Trump. Or less.

You can decide for yourself whether the plan all along was to wind up with much smaller actual tariffs, or whether that is what we have ended up with as a result of the TACO phenomenon.

The next battleground for the economy is sticky inflation and whether and to what extent that both drives interest rate decisions, and is affected by interest rate decisions. I'd hate long term for us to be "okay" with 2.5 to 2.7 percent annual inflation. That extra .5 to .7 adds up quick (in the scheme of things). But it could be a reality for a long time.
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At this point we just want Trump to declare victory on international trade and take his victory lap and move on to the next shiny object
 
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#5,845
#5,845
Thunder Good-Oil said:
The concessions is that they get to keep access to the US consumer. If Belgium doesn’t like it they can kick rocks.
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may want to look into our trade with Belgium before you go tooting something.

We have a "positive" trade balance with Belgium already.

we export about 3 billion to them, and only import 2.5 from them.

International Trade

www.census.gov www.census.gov

I am sure we will see yet another change in messaging to explain this one away.
 
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#5,846
#5,846
BeardedVol said:
JFC...nations are not tariffed.

Goods from other nations are tariffed, and importers pay the tariff.

You guys have listened to Trump repeat that nonsense so many times that you've let it rot a hole in your brain.

Just like the US, the EU could tariff the hell out of Chinese goods, and companies still wouldn't repatriate low-end manufacturing to the EU, they'd just continue to find ways around the tariffs.
Click to expand...

Wrong on so many accounts. Companies closing shops in Europe because they can't compete with Chinese products (i.e. $ 5 USD per hour labor rates). Tariff them and you can save local industry.

US company told me the other day, they were looking at their Mexico location and the labor rates are 25% of what they pay people in USA (or Europe).

You ok with us dropping labor rates by 75% to keep free trade?
 
#5,847
#5,847
LouderVol said:
may want to look into our trade with Belgium before you go tooting something.

We have a "positive" trade balance with Belgium already.

we export about 3 billion to them, and only import 2.5 from them.

International Trade

www.census.gov www.census.gov

I am sure we will see yet another change in messaging to explain this one away.
Click to expand...

The EU has a $200B+ trade surplus with the US. Belgium individually hasn’t had a billion/month deficit for almost 2 years.

Verhofstadt is criticizing the entire US-EU deal, not Belgium’s slice.

He should be grateful. How much has Belgium benefited from US protection? They have spent well below the 2% they’re supposed to. Brussels also is headquarters of NATO - they might even be making a profit.
 
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#5,848
#5,848
Thunder Good-Oil said:
The EU has a $200B+ trade surplus with the US. Belgium individually hasn’t had a billion/month deficit for almost 2 years.

Verhofstadt is criticizing the entire US-EU deal, not Belgium’s slice.

He should be grateful. How much has Belgium benefited from US protection? They have spent well below the 2% they’re supposed to. Brussels also is headquarters of NATO - they might even be making a profit.
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I'm all for sending them the UN as well. They can have the whole socialist enchilada.
 
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