Trade Wars and Tariffs

[CobbVol]

So you’re claiming the response times, or time constant of the lag, is the same in both cases. Ok that’s on you to prove so prove it. I’ll wait.

And tariffs are immediate at time of import also.

On how bad inflation will be no I don’t think it rise to the peak of Biden’s term. But at this point it shouldn’t be going up at all.

Here is the historical inflation by month.
Trump implemented tariffs throughout 2018 with no resulting inflation.
Trump implemented the COVID CARES act in March 2020 with not resulting inflation.
Biden administration enters in Jan 2021 and off we go.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Here is the historical inflation by month.
Trump implemented tariffs throughout 2018 with no resulting inflation.
Trump implemented the COVID CARES act in March 2020 with not resulting inflation.
Biden administration enters in Jan 2021 and off we go.


View attachment 757964

So it is your assertion that Trump’s unprecedented spending levels had zero influence on inflation?

 

[CobbVol]

So it is your assertion that Trump’s unprecedented spending levels had zero influence on inflation?

I am looking at the resulting facts. Are there any others?

 

[NorthDallas40]

I am looking at the resulting facts. Are there any others?

You’re making the same argument as whodey. The time constant is the same for both mechanisms, federal budget and tariffs. As I’ve said prove it.

As far as Trump spending the single largest amount of money in any one year and owning the single largest deficit in history, and that money not having an impact on inflation. Well if you’re convinced of that I’m quite positive there is nothing I can say that will convince you otherwise.

Actually I can say one thing. Remind me when the spending levels of 2021 were set again?

U.S. government - Budget surplus or deficit 2029| Statista

In 2023, the U.S.

www.statista.com

 

[NorthDallas40]

I am looking at the resulting facts. Are there any others?

Maybe this will help you also.

 

[CobbVol]

You’re making the same argument as whodey. The time constant is the same for both mechanisms, federal budget and tariffs. As I’ve said prove it.

As far as Trump spending the single largest amount of money in any one year and owning the single largest deficit in history, and that money not having an impact on inflation. Well if you’re convinced of that I’m quite positive there is nothing I can say that will convince you otherwise.

Let's start with the 2018 Trump tariffs. Their implementation yielded no inflation given the information I provided.

In regards to COVID spending, the March 2020 bill was needed as everything was down, the economy absorbed it, with no resulting inflation. The question gets cloudy on whether the Dec 2020 bill was needed and for sure the Biden bill was not required.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Let's start with the 2018 Trump tariffs. Their implementation yielded no inflation given the information I provided.

In regards to COVID spending, the March 2020 bill was needed as everything was down, the economy absorbed it, with no resulting inflation. The question gets cloudy on whether the Dec 2020 bill was needed and for sure the Biden bill was not required.

The period of inflation began during the FY21 year which is Trump’s budget. Yes Trump’s spending clearly was a catalyst on the inflation.

 

[CobbVol]

The period of inflation began during the FY21 year which is Trump’s budget. Yes Trump’s spending clearly was a catalyst on the inflation.

I will give you the Dec 2020 bill as a catalyst not the CARES ACT. The Biden American Rescue Plan Act 2021 blew it apart.

 

[volfanhill]

@jmacvols1 not from a Trump lap parrot so sure it’s just TDS

Damn liberals at Goldman

 

[NorthDallas40]

I will give you the Dec 2020 bill as a catalyst not the CARES ACT. The Biden American Rescue Plan Act 2021 blew it apart.

We agree then that both president’s crazy spending levels were the driver. And the Fed’s ignorant “transitory inflation” narrative with slow rising of rates poured gas on an open fire.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Damn liberals at Goldman

Some might be Democrats but they damn sure aren’t liberal fiscally.

 

[jmacvols1]

 

[jmacvols1]

Damn liberals at Goldman

Heath Mayo does not work at GS.......... but has TDS by looking at the non-sense he spews on his X account.

consumer spending is up...

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Lol I love watching your lapdog ass put me down as “the left”. Hey @BigOrangeMojo I’m coming for your title!

You gotta spend less time jerking off to the View and more time upping your game before you catch me libtard...

 

[jmacvols1]

 

[BeardedVol]

 

[jmacvols1]

Milton Friedman (an expert on inflation) said "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." He argued that inflation is primarily caused by an excessive increase in the money supply relative to the growth of real economic output. When the central bank (like the Federal Reserve) prints too much money or expands credit too rapidly, it increases the amount of money chasing the same amount of goods and services, leading to rising prices—i.e., inflation. - GROK.

Did Milton Friedman ever say tarriffs cause inflation?

GROK: Milton Friedman did not directly state that tariffs cause inflation in a broad or definitive sense, as his primary focus was on monetary policy—specifically, that inflation is "always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" driven by excessive money supply growth. However, he did discuss tariffs in the context of their economic effects. Friedman, a strong advocate for free trade, argued that tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which can raise domestic prices for those goods or their substitutes. This could contribute to higher consumer prices in specific sectors, a form of price increase sometimes mistaken for inflation.

In his writings and lectures, such as those in Free to Choose (1980) or his 1960s work on trade, Friedman noted that tariffs distort markets, reduce efficiency, and can lead to higher costs for consumers. While these higher costs might resemble inflation in specific cases, he did not equate tariffs with causing general inflation, which he tied to monetary factors. For example, if tariffs raise production costs and the central bank accommodates this by expanding the money supply, inflation could follow—but the root cause, in Friedman’s view, would still be the monetary expansion, not the tariffs themselves.

I couldn’t find a direct quote from Friedman explicitly linking tariffs to inflation in my available sources

 

[jmacvols1]

Maybe the problem is not tarriffs but Japan builds better quality cars more efficiently than GM. Add to this, the unions are a dead albatross around the neck of US companies making them less profitable while causing higher prices for consumers. The unions basically killed steel production in the US making Japan a world leader in steel. Unions make it extremely difficult for American companies compete globally.

from GROK:

Resistance to Modernization:
The USW has occasionally resisted plant closures or production shifts to EAFs, fearing job losses. For example, U.S. Steel canceled modernization plans for Mon Valley Works due to permitting issues, and Great Lakes Works was scaled back, impacting union jobs. The USW’s push to maintain blast furnaces has preserved some jobs but may delay transitions to more competitive technologies

Jmacvols1: Longshoreman threaten to strike because they did not want companies to modernize loading/unloading with robotics causing loss of union jobs.

Advocacy for Protectionism:
The USW has been a vocal proponent of tariffs, such as the 25% steel tariffs imposed in 2018 under Section 232 and raised to 50% in 2025 under President Trump. These tariffs aim to protect domestic production but can raise costs for industries like automotive, potentially reducing demand for U.S. steel if manufacturers pass costs to consumers.



Jmacvols: Automobile manufactors moved south to avoid Unions along with steel mills....


from GROK: (my emphasis)

Context: Steel Industry and Union Dynamics

The U.S. steel industry has faced significant challenges since its peak in the mid-20th century, with production dropping from 111.4 million tons in 1973 to 70 million tons by 1984 due to global competition, technological shifts, and other factors. A key trend has been the transition from traditional, unionized blast furnace mills—often located in the Rust Belt (e.g., Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana)—to modern electric arc furnaces (EAFs) or “mini-mills,” which are more efficient, use scrap metal, and require fewer workers. These mini-mills are often built in regions with less union presence, such as the southern U.S., where labor laws and economic incentives are more favorable to non-unionized operations

The United Steelworkers (USW), formed in 1942, has historically been a powerful force in the steel industry, securing high wages and benefits but also facing criticism for increasing labor costs and resisting modernization efforts that could reduce jobs. The decline in unionized steel jobs—from 340,000 at U.S. Steel’s peak in 1943 to 83,600 industry-wide by 2025—reflects closures of integrated mills and the rise of EAFs, which are often non-unionized

Modernized Steel Mills in the Southern U.S.

Several modernized steel mills, particularly EAF-based mini-mills, have opened or expanded in the southern U.S. in recent decades. These facilities align with the trend toward cost-efficient, technologically advanced steel production. Here are key examples and their relation to unions:

1. Big River Steel (Osceola, Arkansas):
   • Overview: Big River Steel, acquired by U.S. Steel in 2020, operates one of the most advanced EAF mills in North America, with a capacity of 3.3 million tons annually. It produces high-quality steel for automotive and other industries, using cutting-edge technology like thin-slab casting and continuous galvanizing.
     
     
   • Union Status: Big River Steel is explicitly non-unionized, a point of contention for the USW. The union has expressed concerns that U.S. Steel’s acquisition of Big River could shift production away from unionized blast furnace mills in the Rust Belt (e.g., Mon Valley, Gary Works) to non-union facilities like Big River. In a 2022 statement, former USW President Tom Conway warned that Big River’s expansion could mark “the beginning of the end” for union-run mills.
     
     
     
   • Rationale for Location: Arkansas offers lower labor costs, business-friendly policies (e.g., tax incentives), and weaker union protections compared to Rust Belt states. The state’s “right-to-work” laws, which prohibit mandatory unionization, make it attractive for companies seeking to avoid union contracts. Big River’s focus on automotive-grade steel also aligns with demand from southern auto plants, many of which are non-unionized (e.g., Toyota, Nissan).
2. Nucor and Steel Dynamics (Southern Facilities):
   • Overview: Nucor and Steel Dynamics, two of the largest U.S. steel producers, operate multiple EAF mini-mills in the South, including in Alabama (e.g., Nucor’s Decatur mill), Texas (e.g., Steel Dynamics’ Sinton mill, opened in 2021), and Mississippi. These mills produce steel for construction, automotive, and energy sectors, leveraging scrap-based EAFs for efficiency.
     
     
   • Union Status: Nucor and Steel Dynamics are predominantly non-unionized. Nucor, for example, has a long-standing anti-union stance, emphasizing flexible workforces and performance-based pay to avoid union contracts. Their southern mills benefit from the region’s anti-union climate, with states like Alabama and Texas having right-to-work laws.
   • Rationale for Location: The South offers proximity to growing markets (e.g., automotive and energy), lower energy costs (crucial for EAFs), and state incentives. Avoiding unionized labor reduces costs, as unionized mills often have higher wages (e.g., USW-negotiated rates above $30/hour) and stricter work rules.
3. Fairfield Works (Fairfield, Alabama):
   • Overview: U.S. Steel’s Fairfield Works operates an EAF with a capacity of 1.6 million tons, producing flat-rolled steel for automotive and appliance markets. It’s a modernized facility compared to older Rust Belt mills.
     
     
   • Union Status: Unlike Big River, Fairfield Works is unionized under the USW, reflecting U.S. Steel’s historical union presence. However, its EAF operations require fewer workers than traditional blast furnaces, reducing union leverage.
   • Rationale for Location: Alabama’s business-friendly environment and proximity to southern auto plants (e.g., Mercedes-Benz, Honda) make Fairfield attractive, though union presence suggests it’s less about avoiding unions than leveraging modernization and market access.
4. Other Southern Mills:
   • Commercial Metals Company (CMC) operates EAF mini-mills in Alabama, South Carolina, and Texas, all non-unionized, focusing on rebar and construction steel.
     
     
   • 72 Steel (New York, but with Southern Context): A proposed EAF mill in New York, with ties to Chinese investors, aims to produce 3 million tons annually. While not in the South, it reflects the trend of new EAFs avoiding unionized regions, though it’s not explicitly stated as non-union.

Evidence for Union Avoidance

The claim that modernized steel mills are opening in the South to avoid unions is supported by several factors:

• Right-to-Work Laws: Southern states like Arkansas, Alabama, Texas, and Mississippi have right-to-work laws, which weaken union organizing by allowing workers to opt out of union dues. This creates a less union-friendly environment compared to Rust Belt states like Pennsylvania or Ohio.
  
  
• Non-Unionized Mills: Big River Steel and Nucor’s southern facilities are explicitly non-unionized, and their locations in the South align with cost-saving strategies. The USW has voiced concerns that U.S. Steel’s shift toward EAFs like Big River threatens unionized mills.
  
  
• Labor Cost Savings: EAF mini-mills require fewer workers (e.g., 0.5–1.5 man-hours per ton of steel vs. 10.1 in 1980 for traditional mills), reducing the need for large, unionized workforces. Non-union mills often offer lower wages or flexible work rules, as seen with Nucor’s model.
  
  
• Historical Precedent: In the 1980s, U.S. Steel’s South Works in Chicago faced closure partly due to union resistance to concessions on pay and work rules, while newer, non-union mini-mills gained ground. This suggests a pattern of favoring non-union regions for new investments.

==================================================


Time to OUTLAW unions.

Unions need tarriffs on foreign companies to be able to compete causing consumers to pay much higher prices. IIRC several years ago cars could be made in India sold in the US for less than 10K....almost disposible cars. But massive tarriffs had to be put on them to protect unionized US car makers thereby making US consumers pay more to keep the unions wealthy..

 

[BeardedVol]

Maybe the problem is not tarriffs but Japan builds better quality cars more efficiently than GM. Add to this, the unions are a dead albatross around the neck of US companies making them less profitable while causing higher prices for consumers. The unions basically killed steel production in the US making Japan a world leader in steel. Unions make it extremely difficult for American companies compete globally.

from GROK:

Resistance to Modernization:
The USW has occasionally resisted plant closures or production shifts to EAFs, fearing job losses. For example, U.S. Steel canceled modernization plans for Mon Valley Works due to permitting issues, and Great Lakes Works was scaled back, impacting union jobs. The USW’s push to maintain blast furnaces has preserved some jobs but may delay transitions to more competitive technologies

Jmacvols1: Longshoreman threaten to strike because they did not want companies to modernize loading/unloading with robotics causing loss of union jobs.

Advocacy for Protectionism:
The USW has been a vocal proponent of tariffs, such as the 25% steel tariffs imposed in 2018 under Section 232 and raised to 50% in 2025 under President Trump. These tariffs aim to protect domestic production but can raise costs for industries like automotive, potentially reducing demand for U.S. steel if manufacturers pass costs to consumers.



Jmacvols: Automobile manufactors moved south to avoid Unions along with steel mills....


from GROK: (my emphasis)

Context: Steel Industry and Union Dynamics

The U.S. steel industry has faced significant challenges since its peak in the mid-20th century, with production dropping from 111.4 million tons in 1973 to 70 million tons by 1984 due to global competition, technological shifts, and other factors. A key trend has been the transition from traditional, unionized blast furnace mills—often located in the Rust Belt (e.g., Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana)—to modern electric arc furnaces (EAFs) or “mini-mills,” which are more efficient, use scrap metal, and require fewer workers. These mini-mills are often built in regions with less union presence, such as the southern U.S., where labor laws and economic incentives are more favorable to non-unionized operations

The United Steelworkers (USW), formed in 1942, has historically been a powerful force in the steel industry, securing high wages and benefits but also facing criticism for increasing labor costs and resisting modernization efforts that could reduce jobs. The decline in unionized steel jobs—from 340,000 at U.S. Steel’s peak in 1943 to 83,600 industry-wide by 2025—reflects closures of integrated mills and the rise of EAFs, which are often non-unionized

Modernized Steel Mills in the Southern U.S.

Several modernized steel mills, particularly EAF-based mini-mills, have opened or expanded in the southern U.S. in recent decades. These facilities align with the trend toward cost-efficient, technologically advanced steel production. Here are key examples and their relation to unions:

1. Big River Steel (Osceola, Arkansas):
   • Overview: Big River Steel, acquired by U.S. Steel in 2020, operates one of the most advanced EAF mills in North America, with a capacity of 3.3 million tons annually. It produces high-quality steel for automotive and other industries, using cutting-edge technology like thin-slab casting and continuous galvanizing.
     
     
   • Union Status: Big River Steel is explicitly non-unionized, a point of contention for the USW. The union has expressed concerns that U.S. Steel’s acquisition of Big River could shift production away from unionized blast furnace mills in the Rust Belt (e.g., Mon Valley, Gary Works) to non-union facilities like Big River. In a 2022 statement, former USW President Tom Conway warned that Big River’s expansion could mark “the beginning of the end” for union-run mills.
     
     
     
   • Rationale for Location: Arkansas offers lower labor costs, business-friendly policies (e.g., tax incentives), and weaker union protections compared to Rust Belt states. The state’s “right-to-work” laws, which prohibit mandatory unionization, make it attractive for companies seeking to avoid union contracts. Big River’s focus on automotive-grade steel also aligns with demand from southern auto plants, many of which are non-unionized (e.g., Toyota, Nissan).
2. Nucor and Steel Dynamics (Southern Facilities):
   • Overview: Nucor and Steel Dynamics, two of the largest U.S. steel producers, operate multiple EAF mini-mills in the South, including in Alabama (e.g., Nucor’s Decatur mill), Texas (e.g., Steel Dynamics’ Sinton mill, opened in 2021), and Mississippi. These mills produce steel for construction, automotive, and energy sectors, leveraging scrap-based EAFs for efficiency.
     
     
   • Union Status: Nucor and Steel Dynamics are predominantly non-unionized. Nucor, for example, has a long-standing anti-union stance, emphasizing flexible workforces and performance-based pay to avoid union contracts. Their southern mills benefit from the region’s anti-union climate, with states like Alabama and Texas having right-to-work laws.
   • Rationale for Location: The South offers proximity to growing markets (e.g., automotive and energy), lower energy costs (crucial for EAFs), and state incentives. Avoiding unionized labor reduces costs, as unionized mills often have higher wages (e.g., USW-negotiated rates above $30/hour) and stricter work rules.
3. Fairfield Works (Fairfield, Alabama):
   • Overview: U.S. Steel’s Fairfield Works operates an EAF with a capacity of 1.6 million tons, producing flat-rolled steel for automotive and appliance markets. It’s a modernized facility compared to older Rust Belt mills.
     
     
   • Union Status: Unlike Big River, Fairfield Works is unionized under the USW, reflecting U.S. Steel’s historical union presence. However, its EAF operations require fewer workers than traditional blast furnaces, reducing union leverage.
   • Rationale for Location: Alabama’s business-friendly environment and proximity to southern auto plants (e.g., Mercedes-Benz, Honda) make Fairfield attractive, though union presence suggests it’s less about avoiding unions than leveraging modernization and market access.
4. Other Southern Mills:
   • Commercial Metals Company (CMC) operates EAF mini-mills in Alabama, South Carolina, and Texas, all non-unionized, focusing on rebar and construction steel.
     
     
   • 72 Steel (New York, but with Southern Context): A proposed EAF mill in New York, with ties to Chinese investors, aims to produce 3 million tons annually. While not in the South, it reflects the trend of new EAFs avoiding unionized regions, though it’s not explicitly stated as non-union.

Evidence for Union Avoidance

The claim that modernized steel mills are opening in the South to avoid unions is supported by several factors:

• Right-to-Work Laws: Southern states like Arkansas, Alabama, Texas, and Mississippi have right-to-work laws, which weaken union organizing by allowing workers to opt out of union dues. This creates a less union-friendly environment compared to Rust Belt states like Pennsylvania or Ohio.
  
  
• Non-Unionized Mills: Big River Steel and Nucor’s southern facilities are explicitly non-unionized, and their locations in the South align with cost-saving strategies. The USW has voiced concerns that U.S. Steel’s shift toward EAFs like Big River threatens unionized mills.
  
  
• Labor Cost Savings: EAF mini-mills require fewer workers (e.g., 0.5–1.5 man-hours per ton of steel vs. 10.1 in 1980 for traditional mills), reducing the need for large, unionized workforces. Non-union mills often offer lower wages or flexible work rules, as seen with Nucor’s model.
  
  
• Historical Precedent: In the 1980s, U.S. Steel’s South Works in Chicago faced closure partly due to union resistance to concessions on pay and work rules, while newer, non-union mini-mills gained ground. This suggests a pattern of favoring non-union regions for new investments.

==================================================


Time to OUTLAW unions.

Unions need tarriffs on foreign companies to be able to compete causing consumers to pay much higher prices. IIRC several years ago cars could be made in India sold in the US for less than 10K....almost disposible cars. But massive tarriffs had to be put on them to protect unionized US car makers thereby making US consumers pay more to keep the unions wealthy..

Lol, how would that change the fact that there are parts that are not, and will never be manufactured in the United States, that will be tariffed at 25% or more depending on the whims of Trump?

 

[jmacvols1]

Lol, how would that change the fact that there are parts that are not, and will never be manufactured in the United States, that will be tariffed at 25% or more depending on the whims of Trump?

View attachment 758072

the left wants to put all problems on tarriffs when in reality the left is the cause of problems in the US. including leftist unions.

Do you think GM really wants free trade and have to compete against automobile manufacturers around the world

 

[BeardedVol]

the left wants to put all problems on tarriffs when in reality the left is the cause of problems in the US. including leftist unions.

Do you think GM really wants free trade and have to compete against automobile manufacturers around the world

Lol, so it's the UAW's fault that parts and materials are now more expensive for Ford?

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Taco party at my house....

 

[Sea Ray]

more details

How long will it take Boeing to fulfill that order? The Saudis and Qatar wanted a bunch of planes. Boeing is still yrs away from completing the new AF One. I doubt Boeing will fulfill these orders in the next decade

 

[Sea Ray]

American car makers should not count on our gov't propping them up with protectionist tariffs. Why can't they compete with Japan on a level playing field?

 

[KB5252]

Lol, so it's the UAW's fault that parts and materials are now more expensive for Ford?

That's been the case for import cars for decades. What nanny of them choose to do was make simpler, affordable cars that were better engineered and proven using common parts and later longer.

The domestic manufacturers went various routes, but there products outside of the truck world have always been viewed as inferior, typically had more service issues and a shorter lifespan.

All this on top of government bailouts and deals to keep them competitive and our domestic manufacturers still seem to struggle. There are a number of reasons but the UAW is certainly a factor among them.