Trade Wars and Tariffs

#5,534
#5,534
jmacvols1 said:
Core inflation came in below expectations. Under Trump, core has come in at or below expectations.

Depends on which inflation gauge you go by.





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Under expectations. Expectations were a slight uptick in inflation. Which is what happened.

Core was 2.9 vs 2.7 in May. CPI was 2.8 vs 2.4 in May
 
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#5,535
#5,535
hog88 said:
How is that a loophole?
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we import some and its apparently not tariffed.

if the idea is that foreign stuff is bad, fuel not being tariffed is a bad thing considering we will import some. I don't think Trump is just tariffing items we aren't net exporters on.
if the idea is that we need more domestic production and are manipulating the market to get more domestic production everywhere else, why not fuel as well?
if the idea is more money for the government, its a bad idea.
 
#5,537
#5,537
NorthDallas40 said:
That isn’t sustainable. Automotive is a hugely competitive market. Also that is TGO’s go to excuse, that exporters will just eat it. Personally I find that laughable as that really implies to me they aren’t in a competitive market and can set their margins. For another example recently Ford stated they’ve paid over a billion in tariffs this year and the same article I believe stated they have the most domestic production.

From your article


Also we’ve beat this Vietnam single case to death. I’d like to see the growing list of defined deals resulting from these tariffs. We’ve had three and a half months now
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I don't know it (Japanese exporters $ reductions) has to be sustainable; it can be multiple things at the same time. Exporters, importers, and consumers all having skin in the game even as we reduce dependencies with countries like China and align with other supplying nations, re-shore, negotiate tradiing terms, etc.

And I don't understand the insistence that a century of tariff practices be overhauled in 3.5 months. Or decades of immigration mismanagement touting the 'cheap head of lettuce' while misdirecting our gaze from the unemployed American we told to learn coding, STEM so they can watch abusive visa practices doublly-screw them over. And ignoring the net cost of reckless immigration.

Powerful interests and a natural human intransigence have to be overcome. Perspectives have to be changed as people are exposed to different thought processes and evidence of how their good will and tax dollars are abused. Trump is going to alternately fail and succeed at some aspects of turning the country from a destructive leftward lurch. We also need congress and the SC growing backbones to make the successes long-term.

I'd argue not since FDR and his startling scope of branding the nation progressive, have we seen a president equally take on as much and certainly not in so short a time. We're overdue an anti-FDR. He's well aware he has jut four years without artificial imposition of 3-4 month deadlines. Despite repeated threats to his life and liberty, he volunteered for this shite again. I think he's earned a longer leash.
 
#5,538
#5,538
NCFisher said:
I don't know it (Japanese exporters $ reductions) has to be sustainable; it can be multiple things at the same time. Exporters, importers, and consumers all having skin in the game even as we reduce dependencies with countries like China and align with other supplying nations, re-shore, negotiate tradiing terms, etc.

And I don't understand the insistence that a century of tariff practices be overhauled in 3.5 months. Or decades of immigration mismanagement touting the 'cheap head of lettuce' while misdirecting our gaze from the unemployed American we told to learn coding, STEM so they can watch abusive visa practices doublly-screw them over. And ignoring the net cost of reckless immigration.

Powerful interests and a natural human intransigence have to be overcome. Perspectives have to be changed as people are exposed to different thought processes and evidence of how their good will and tax dollars are abused. Trump is going to alternately fail and succeed at some aspects of turning the country from a destructive leftward lurch. We also need congress and the SC growing backbones to make the successes long-term.

I'd argue not since FDR and his startling scope of branding the nation progressive, have we seen a president equally take on as much and certainly not in so short a time. We're overdue an anti-FDR. He's well aware he has jut four years without artificial imposition of 3-4 month deadlines. Despite repeated threats to his life and liberty, he volunteered for this shite again. I think he's earned a longer leash.
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Regardless of his leash length what he needs to do is pick a damn lane and stick to it. At this point due to his continual waffling most people and the markets to a very large degree just ignore his tariff threats. That isn’t good at all.

Also Trump chose his own three month window. That’s his own damn fault.
 
#5,539
#5,539
NorthDallas40 said:
Regardless of his leash length what he needs to do is pick a damn lane and stick to it. At this point due to his continual waffling most people and the markets to a very large degree just ignore his tariff threats. That isn’t good at all.

Also Trump chose his own three month window. That’s his own damn fault.
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Negotiations are by nature malleable. If a different lane gets you to your destination when others are impassable, as a rational person you'll take that lane. Regardless of what timelines he projects for various initiatives, I'll take an end result that better the American position whenever he can get it.

It's a better thing that the markets are not twitching to every breath he takes; the short guys can take it in the shorts or wise up. You know who isn't ignoring him? Nations that want trade with us.
 
#5,540
#5,540
LouderVol said:
we import some and its apparently not tariffed.

if the idea is that foreign stuff is bad, fuel not being tariffed is a bad thing considering we will import some. I don't think Trump is just tariffing items we aren't net exporters on.
if the idea is that we need more domestic production and are manipulating the market to get more domestic production everywhere else, why not fuel as well?
if the idea is more money for the government, its a bad idea.
Click to expand...

It has everything to do with refining capability and capacity. Nobody is going to invest the $$ and years into expanding refining capacity or retool a refinery to refine light crude when a Biden can be elected in 3 years and with a signature make the investment worthless. You need to expand your view.
 
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#5,541
#5,541
NCFisher said:
Negotiations are by nature malleable. If a different lane gets you to your destination when others are impassable, as a rational person you'll take that lane. Regardless of what timelines he projects for various initiatives, I'll take an end result that better the American position whenever he can get it.

It's a better thing that the markets are not twitching to every breath he takes; the short guys can take it in the shorts or wise up. You know who isn't ignoring him? Nations that want trade with us.
Click to expand...
Proactively planning for that malleability is part of an integrated negotiating strategy. Trump has no competency with negotiating in that manner. His first term he claimed it's just like doing real estate deals. That's laughable because it's not remotely similar. International trade requires strategic proactive planning for multiple outcomes. Your first couple of comments are fundamentally wrong. That approach is react and plan. Doesn't work with international trade. Timing is critical
 
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#5,542
#5,542
NCFisher said:
Negotiations are by nature malleable. If a different lane gets you to your destination when others are impassable, as a rational person you'll take that lane. Regardless of what timelines he projects for various initiatives, I'll take an end result that better the American position whenever he can get it.

It's a better thing that the markets are not twitching to every breath he takes; the short guys can take it in the shorts or wise up. You know who isn't ignoring him? Nations that want trade with us.
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So that’s an end justifies the means statement. The path matters. And throwing 💩 at the wall to see what sticks has backfired on him thus far.
 
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#5,543
#5,543
hog88 said:
It has everything to do with refining capability and capacity. Nobody is going to invest the $$ and years into expanding refining capacity or retool a refinery to refine light crude when a Biden can be elected in 3 years and with a signature make the investment worthless. You need to expand your view.
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its the same for any manufacturing job too. Trump hasn't got rid of the EPA, or made it impossible for the tariffs to go away.

right now the only incentive for companies to come back home is Trump's added cost of doing business off shore. but not for fuel...
 
#5,544
#5,544
LouderVol said:
its the same for any manufacturing job too. Trump hasn't got rid of the EPA, or made it impossible for the tariffs to go away.

right now the only incentive for companies to come back home is Trump's added cost of doing business off shore. but not for fuel...
Click to expand...

No, it's nothing close to "any manufacturing job". I don't even know what you're trying to say with the rest of your post.
 
#5,545
#5,545
hog88 said:
No, it's nothing close to "any manufacturing job". I don't even know what you're trying to say with the rest of your post.
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how is it not like any manufacturing job? those companies have to invest billions to get US assets or get their existing stuff up to manufacturing. that investment could be easily lost if the next president comes in and removes the tariffs. its the same threat as oil faces.
 
#5,546
#5,546
LouderVol said:
how is it not like any manufacturing job? those companies have to invest billions to get US assets or get their existing stuff up to manufacturing. that investment could be easily lost if the next president comes in and removes the tariffs. its the same threat as oil faces.
Click to expand...

First of all, a company wanting to build widgets in the US doesn't have to go through a years long process to permit their new plant. They probably won't have to go through numerous lawsuits trying to stop their new plant from being built, plus they can pretty much build it anywhere that has reasonably close interstate access. They also don't have to worry about a new administration coming into office and going to war against widgets, with a stroke of a pen canceling a project they invested billions in. Nor would there be a high likelihood of a new administration/congress coming in and offering massive subsidies and tax advantages for a competitor to build whatnots in order to make widgets obsolete.
 
#5,547
#5,547
BernardKingGOAT said:
Proactively planning for that malleability is part of an integrated negotiating strategy. Trump has no competency with negotiating in that manner. His first term he claimed it's just like doing real estate deals. That's laughable because it's not remotely similar. International trade requires strategic proactive planning for multiple outcomes. Your first couple of comments are fundamentally wrong. That approach is react and plan. Doesn't work with international trade. Timing is critical
Click to expand...
His strategy is the product of a team of capable public sector people, and publicly led by Scott Bessent as in the April interview by Carlson. This reminds me of elected Democrats talking about eschewing vaccines, as if Trump was in the WH basement cooking them up in test tubes himself.

Recongizing negotiating as malleable and more than one way to reach objectives is hardly reactive and lacking a plan; it's simply how it goes sometimes. Being too eager or too rigid can lose the best deal.
 
#5,549
#5,549
NCFisher said:
If that's how you want to interpet my comments or Trump's economic goals as voiced by Bessent in the April interview, I see no point dissuading you.
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I don’t really see another way to interpret this quote from you.
Regardless of what timelines he projects for various initiatives, I'll take an end result that better the American position whenever he can get it.
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And as far as nations not ignoring us to date there are a total of two agreements. The UK one seems worse to be that prior to the turmoil. On Vietnam we keep hearing touting of 0 tariffs into Vietnam however it’s 20% coming into the US. That impacts the price of those goods to consumers.

The only good item I’ve seen from all of this is the trans shipping tariffs on Vietnam. That targets China largely and that is who we should be going after. In over 3 months that single item is it.
 
#5,550
#5,550
NCFisher said:
His strategy is the product of a team of capable public sector people, and publicly led by Scott Bessent as in the April interview by Carlson. This reminds me of elected Democrats talking about eschewing vaccines, as if Trump was in the WH basement cooking them up in test tubes himself.

Recongizing negotiating as malleable and more than one way to reach objectives is hardly reactive and lacking a plan; it's simply how it goes sometimes. Being too eager or too rigid can lose the best deal.
Click to expand...
The strategy, or lack there of, is indicative of a not so capable team. Good God man, I know Trump isn't formulating anything about these chaotic and incompetent negotiations.

You apparently didn't comprehend my post. How much real world, first hand experience do you have negotiating pricing with international trade partners? To lend support of the current process would indicate you have no experience and thus no understanding of proper negotiations.
 
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