Trade Wars and Tariffs

[Orange_Crush]

Understanding tariffs doesn't mean there's an understanding of the difference between negotiating real estate deals and negotiating international trade deals. Huge difference

That wasn't the statement I was taking issue with.

 

[Vol8188]

I see you conveniently ignored my post about how the Automotive industry is doing and the actual 2024 Financial Reportings.

EDIT: I also don't quite under stand the "leftist" argument when the entire point of MAGA and Trump is that we have lost our manufacturing and need to bring it back. That is more of a MAGA argument (that a lot of leftist agree with as well).

What do you think “and 1 industry” means? Your entire argument is “people feel bad and one industry isn’t doing great”. That’s not sufficient reason to worsen the standard of living of the rest of the country the majority of which work outside that industry

It’s the same whiney Bernie Bro argument. That’s why there’s overlap between Trump and Bernie supporters. It’s why when you hear Tucker talk about economics he sounds like Bernie. You’re arguing against free markets and in favor of minimum wage.

An opinion poll and 1 industry? That’s your comeback?

I don’t care how people feel. That’s not the question. Nor do I care if one specific industry has issues.

Is the overall economy growing? Are people better off today? The answer to both over the long run is yes. You know that too. That’s why you refuse to address reality and instead keep discussing “feelings” like a 3rd grade girl

 

[Orange_Crush]

The lengths you guys will go to for Trump are truly amazing.

So I guess we'll be including CBS, NBC, etc, and all movie studios in the manufacturing jobs report since they "manufacture" television and film content?

The entire housing industry is also now considered "manufacturing" since houses are the end result?

Can we include hospitals as well since they "manufacture" healthcare?

Yep. Still sounds stupid.

 

[BernardKingGOAT]

That wasn't the statement I was taking issue with.

I wasn't referring to you, but those who bring up "The Art of the Deal" as proof that Trump is an expert at international trade

 

[volbound1700]

What do you think “and 1 industry” means? Your entire argument is “people feel bad and one industry isn’t doing great”. That’s not sufficient reason to worsen the standard of living of the rest of the country the majority of which work outside that industry

It’s the same whiney Bernie Bro argument. That’s why there’s overlap between Trump and Bernie supporters. It’s why when you hear Tucker talk about economics he sounds like Bernie. You’re arguing against free markets and in favor of minimum wage.

Automotive Industry is one of the biggest employers in most nations.

You clearly don't know what you are talking about. You don't read up on Business News, Automotive News, Forbes, Wall Street Journal, etc. You haven't worked a real job (I can tell) and are probably doing something like teaching or some profession that lives in the abstract.

Record numbers of young people (not just in the USA but even globally) are under employed, unable to find housing, etc. Granted, we have had other bad periods and recoveries (the 1970s oil crisis was bad and so was 2008 which is the one that I personal dealt with).

You might be onto something with the bolded comment. I do think Trump and MAGA have a lot more in common with the AOC/Bernie crowd that either group wants to admit.

 

[appvol]

Amazon wasn’t a big money maker for them. Same reason fedex dropped them a few years ago. Amazon kept the bulk deliveries and packages in the cities that were cheap/convenient for their delivery and farmed out the single deliveries spread out all across the county to ups/fedex. More time consuming and expensive to deliver all the individual packages spread out.

Talked to a friend of mine at UPS. He thinks some of it is the most recent union contract UPS agreed to. There are instances where drivers can get paid 4x hourly. (Yes quadruple overtime). If you work more than 9.5 hours a day three days in a row you can file a grievance and get 4x pay for those hours over. So you get drivers that drag their feet on routes that should take around 8 hours give or take to make it last 11-12 hours. Do that 3 days in a row then file grievance for 4x hourly pay for those 6-8 hours over. 1st 8 hours is straight time. Over 40 is time and half. But hit that 9.5 3 days in a row and those go to 4x. And it’s not like UPS is creating routes that take that long. Drivers can drag it out on purpose. And if UPS tries to have someone follow them on their route to see if they’re intentionally going slow the union will just claim he’s being harassed.

So employees have an incentive to drag their feet to make incredible overtime on a bunch of Amazon packages that weren’t making UPS money to begin with.

Like you’ve suggested it likely has nothing to do with tariffs.

ok a lot that isn’t true about the 9/5. I have 3 9/5 grievances this year so far. You drag your feet you will eventually get fired. You will get your job back eventually but it will probably be without back pay. You get Triple time for the hours you worked over 9/5 which is like $101. So I had like 11hrs of 9/5 grievances at $101. If you get that 4th week of over 9/5 the Union has a special hearing with the company and UPS isn’t allowed to work you over 9/5 hours. The reason we have 9/5 protection is so UPS will have to keep routes in and not work us 11 to 12hr days. No driver really wants to stay to 9pm or later.

 

[Vol8188]

Automotive Industry is one of the biggest employers in most nations.

You clearly don't know what you are talking about. You don't read up on Business News, Automotive News, Forbes, Wall Street Journal, etc. You haven't worked a real job (I can tell) and are probably doing something like teaching or some profession that lives in the abstract.

Record numbers of young people (not just in the USA but even globally) are under employed, unable to find housing, etc. Granted, we have had other bad periods and recoveries (the 1970s oil crisis was bad and so was 2008 which is the one that I personal dealt with).

You might be onto something with the bolded comment. I do think Trump and MAGA have a lot more in common with the AOC/Bernie crowd that either group wants to admit.

Young people have no issue finding full time employment.

The auto industry employs about 2.5% of people. So we should increase cost for the other 97.5% of people to benefit you?

It’s a nonsense argument that you’re only making because of your personal attachment to the industry

 

[LouderVol]

Trump knows about tariffs that you every will. He deals with manufacturing and material costs every day, I'd say he's pretty intune with imports.

at his level I would be shocked if he knew the daily values. He may have some understanding if they are going up or down. someone who deals with the billions isn't going to know the unit cost for a ton of cold rolled steel is $988 on a particular day.

but really as long as the numbers are balanced, cost paid vs cost charged, at his level he isn't going to care about the specifics. and he has people who deal with that balancing for him.

 

[McDad]

There is another story there, insurance and property taxes have played a key in driving up rates.

USA insurance industry is out of control and a big reason we can't be globally competitive. Granted, tort reform might help that a little.

My insurance has increased as the property value has increased. I could choose to be under insured but that defeats the purpose. Tax rates haven't increased. Tax assessed will increase along with value. New assessments (for me) happen this year and next.

 

[volbound1700]

at his level I would be shocked if he knew the daily values. He may have some understanding if they are going up or down. someone who deals with the billions isn't going to know the unit cost for a ton of cold rolled steel is $988 on a particular day.

but really as long as the numbers are balanced, cost paid vs cost charged, at his level he isn't going to care about the specifics. and he has people who deal with that balancing for him.

To claim Trump doesn't have the aptitude is a little dumb. Same with the Biden arguments. They have staff around them.

I will say this, Trump has a way of responding emotionally and not logically (we all do, even I did the other night on the Canada chat because I was in a sore mood about work). Trump seems to be the worse about it. Biden did it with spur of the moment situations but had people stop him from going off tangents on his Twitter Account or some of the policy setups.

That being said, Trump's outbursts sometimes play to his advantage though (and I think he knows it). Guy has won the Presidency twice now. Underestimate him at your own risk.

Take NATO as an example where his crazy outbursts have worked. He pissed Europe off so much that they are now paying more on their military (which was his goal all along).

For some odd reason, it sounds like Carney winning in Canada might actually help Trump. He kicked out Trudeau and got a Trudeau 2.0 but the new Trudeau seems to be willing to work with Trump. I am not sure the Conservative candidate would have worked with Trump.

 

[volbound1700]

My insurance has increased as the property value has increased. I could choose to be under insured but that defeats the purpose. Tax rates haven't increased. Tax assessed will increase along with value. New assessments (for me) happen this year and next.

Tax would definitely depend on where you live.

To be fair, a lot of these people that complain about the rent being too high live in places like NYC, San Francisco, Nashville (LOL), or Los Angeles so of course it is high.

Granted, I am hearing horror stories of average rent payments in Nashville that are now higher than my mortgage payment on a house that is 10x the size of the place they are renting.

 

[hog88]

I would like to learn this ability to drive up my rents. Tia.

If you learn please let me know.

 

[CobbVol]

China backing down from the #1 customer in the world. They do not have the high ground in this trade war ...

From the article:

China has created a list of U.S.-made products that would be exempted from its 125 per cent tariffs and is quietly notifying companies about the policy, two people familiar with the matter said, as Beijing seeks to ease the impact of its trade war with Washington.

The quiet approach allows Beijing, which has repeatedly said it is willing to fight until the end unless the U.S. lifts its 145 per cent tariffs, to maintain its public messaging while privately taking practical steps to provide concessions.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/china-tariff-whitelist-1.7522535

 

[DinkinFlicka]

My insurance has increased as the property value has increased. I could choose to be under insured but that defeats the purpose. Tax rates haven't increased. Tax assessed will increase along with value. New assessments (for me) happen this year and next.

Genuinely, I'd love to see what you charged for rent on a prop in 2019 versus what you charge now and, if it's okay with you, the insurance rates/tax rates in those same timelines.

I know several landlords and the stories vary wildly.

 

[hog88]

Genuinely, I'd love to see what you charged for rent on a prop in 2019 versus what you charge now and, if it's okay with you, the insurance rates/tax rates in those same timelines.

I know several landlords and the stories vary wildly.

Landlords need to get what they can get now that it's been established the .gov can force you to let people live in your property for free

 

[DinkinFlicka]

Landlords need to get what they can get now that it's been established the .gov can force you to let people live in your property for free

Squatter laws vary from state to state and most have been around long before the market spiked 5 years ago.

That story doesn't cut it. I've been a perfect tenant on paper anywhere i've lived across the country.

 

[hog88]

Squatter laws vary from state to state and most have been around long before the market spiked 5 years ago.

That story doesn't cut it.

I'm talking about during the height of Covid and shortly after when state and local governments were baring evictions. People were living rent free for well over a year in some of my wife's properties.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

I'm talking about during the height of Covid and shortly after when state and local governments were baring evictions. People were living rent free for well over a year in some of my wife's properties.

"Shortly after" is a key pairing of words here.

 

[hog88]

"Shortly after" is a key pairing of words here.

The point still stands. If the .gov can force you to provide free housing then you need to build reserves, the banks sure weren't allowing loans to go unpaid. A year+ is a long time to go without collecting rent on several units.

 

[TheDeeble]

UPS’ CEO IMO is a big problem, from what I understand she’s the big driver of their partnership with CBRE and that has cost them big time. Facility maintenance costs have gone through the roof yet she keeps doubling down with them.

That sounds similar to a gripe I've heard before from him. Something about UPS started firing the mx guys (this was 3-4 years back) at some of their buildings and replacing them with a 1-800 number. Previously if they had an overhead door at their building that was broke their mx mgr guy would call a vendor to repair it if it's not something they could fix. But he would oversee the process and make sure someone came out and it was fixed. He knew who he was calling. Now someone (could be anyone) calls a 1-800 number and those people set up a vendor. And since UPS fired the person who was responsible for that oversight sometimes 2-3 different people may call the 1-800 number and 3 different vendors are set up for the same door.

So what ends up happening is: Does anyone show up to fix it? Maybe. Does it take 1 week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks? Yes and longer. Have multiple vendors been paid over a 2 month span and the door is still broke? Yes.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

The point still stands. If the .gov can force you to provide free housing then you need to build reserves, the banks sure weren't allowing loans to go unpaid. A year+ is a long time to go without collecting rent on several units.

Why not demand higher initial move in costs to offset the risk?

Or, if it's really about insurance against delinquency, why not demand a much higher deposit? Why do good renters like me have to pay the price for ****** tenants and government overreach?

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

The low interest rates in the early 80s really helped. My parents financed a couple in the 14-16% range.

Rates 10 years ago were in the 3-4% range (finishing the last payment on our 2.8% this year!) but did rise sharply after 2020. What happened?

My first house was 11%. And THAT was a good deal at the time.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

The lengths you guys will go to for Trump are truly amazing.

So I guess we'll be including CBS, NBC, etc, and all movie studios in the manufacturing jobs report since they "manufacture" television and film content?

The entire housing industry is also now considered "manufacturing" since houses are the end result?

Can we include hospitals as well since they "manufacture" healthcare?

I'll bet that sounded good in your head.

 

[hog88]

That sounds similar to a gripe I've heard before from him. Something about UPS started firing the mx guys (this was 3-4 years back) at some of their buildings and replacing them with a 1-800 number. Previously if they had an overhead door at their building that was broke their mx mgr guy would call a vendor to repair it if it's not something they could fix. But he would oversee the process and make sure someone came out and it was fixed. He knew who he was calling. Now someone (could be anyone) calls a 1-800 number and those people set up a vendor. And since UPS fired the person who was responsible for that oversight sometimes 2-3 different people may call the 1-800 number and 3 different vendors are set up for the same door.

So what ends up happening is: Does anyone show up to fix it? Maybe. Does it take 1 week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks? Yes and longer. Have multiple vendors been paid over a 2 month span and the door is still broke? Yes.

When they first made the switch a few years ago it was chaos. Routine maintenance was replaced by call-outs, you'd get work orders from districts you don't even serve, trades you don't preform, techs would be waiting on site for hours to check in/out, plus they decided to go to a 90 day pay. What do vendors do when they have to wait 90 days to get paid, quit or raise prices to justify financing a billion dollar+ company.

It got better after a couple years when they realized the PEs needed to be involved but just recently they handed it all back to CBRE and it's getting nuts again.

 

[Ritzwatch]

My insurance has increased as the property value has increased. I could choose to be under insured but that defeats the purpose. Tax rates haven't increased. Tax assessed will increase along with value. New assessments (for me) happen this year and next.

Not to mention that not everyone who is a landlord bought before 2019. If you bought or built a decent 3BR rental house in the last 4 years, you probably have to charge $2200/mo. just to break even.