Trade Wars and Tariffs

[volbound1700]

China owes us and the world for Covid. Their tinkering in Wuhan killed more than 1 million people.

China thinks the world owes then for what happened in the 19th and early 20th Centuries. It seriously drives their foreign policy.

 

[Ritzwatch]

I don't like Tudors. Tariffs gonna force me to go back to Seiko.

The Seiko Heritage green titanium would be a nice choice. At 38mm, it is in the sweet spot for wrist presence, and the Ti feels amazing on the wrist.

 

[Majors]

My dog knows more about the economy than Trump. Trump has a long history of bankruptcies.

Your dog also sniffs butts and good chance licks his own before licking you. But I wouldn’t call it a a$$ kisser.

 

[jmacvols1]

As the article asks, “Will it work?”

the thing is it has worked for other countries who have made billions/trillions off the US stealing wealth and jobs from the US while the US has gone down over the years. if it works for other countries why not work for the US? The key issue in all of this is Congress as the link you posted says "The deficit remains massive—and that is where spending cuts come in." Will Congress squander all the savings and continue deficit spending?

 

[volbound1700]

I read an interesting article the other day questioning why we are trying to bring back the manufacturing jobs. He stated that today's youngsters have no aspirations to work in a factory environment 8 hours a day. They want high tech, AI, jobs and/or jobs they can work from home. Maybe resurrecting these jobs is like bringing back the Blockbuster stores of the 80/90s or the dinosaurs. Their time has passed. The chances of a recession has gone way up since the tariffs with no end in sight for worsening inflation. Yes the American government will benefit from the increased revenue but will they pass this down to the average American who will suffer from further increases in cost of living? If so, OK. However, a lot of money has been erased in the stock market in the last week, and no the stock market isn't just rich people. There are allot of middle class people hoping to supplement their retirement with it. Try living on a Social Security check!

Issue is the AI jobs have to be tied to something (i.e.) a product. You have software industry so that can create some jobs but you also need something more. Also India is taking a lot of these high tech AI jobs from us because you can pay them a fraction you pay someone in USA. Sadly the quality has also declined as well. The quality of a lot of products have declined the past 15 years. Taking housing industry where they utilize more and more of that cheap plywood.

 

[n_huffhines]

This is an interesting article.

Seems like a whole lot of moving parts to get it all to work out, but it does give greater insight into some of the strategy at play.

As the article asks, “Will it work?”

I hope so, because that would be good for all of us.

Here's what Trump is really up to with high-stakes tariff gambit

Policy analyst Tanvi Ratna breaks down what President Trump is really up to with his tariffs, and it is more ambitious that you may think.

www.foxnews.com

The idea that Trump is tanking the stock market in service of the national debt, when he has never expressed concern for the national debt and he worships the stock market...seriously...

These guys are just trying to retrofit wildass plans to Trump's behavior. This is supposedly the plan. It's called the Mar-a-lago accord. We aren't sure because Trump has never fkn mentioned it for some reason. I listened to a long podcast about the plan, and took notes for y'all's edification. It's a shot in the dark, and probably won't work because we likely do not have the immense bargaining power required to overcome the terms and also how much we're pissing off everybody. The other concerning part is nobody can be certain Trump would actually agree to the terms of a plan he is not endorsing.

1st term, Trump waited months to announce an investigation into Chinese trade practices, and after a year enacted a tariff on $34B worth of stuff. The effective average tariff rate only rose by 1.5%. In his 2nd term, after two months we have a $1T tariff. Effective average tariff rate up by 5% at the time of recording (so I don't think that counts 4/2).

The guest's explanation of the Mar-a-Lago Accord (the plan details he's gathered from Stephen Mirren, Scott Besant):

- Trump beats the world down with tariffs to force them to the negotiating table.
- When they're begging for reprieve, Trump will invite the world leaders to Mar-a-Lago where he will present them with terms.
- They will agree to coordinate to weaken the dollar to strengthen their own currencies, which will make American goods more cheap to sell abroad. Countries with current surpluses with the US (Germany, China) would have no choice that makes sense but to invest the dollars they hold in American businesses and manufacturing.
- All countries will be required to swap the debt they hold with "Century Bonds" which is essentially free financing to the US for 100 years.

One big problem with this plan is that we don't even know if Trump truly supports it. Trump has never mentioned it by name. It seems the plan may be just something retrofitted to Trump's actions and comments trying to make it into a salient economic plan. Trump recently threatened a country for trying to weaken the dollar, which is weird if we think his plan is to weaken the dollar.

The other guest basically explains that if you can control all the other countries like this in order to get this result, then the economics of it do actually make sense. But the assumption that you have this kind of bargaining power to make the world accept these terms is where this thing goes entirely wrong. Also, a strong dollar vs. weak dollar has pros and cons. One of the cons of a weak dollar is that borrowing becomes relatively more expensive, hence the need for the Century Bonds (that I don't think the world is going to accept). Will Trump even accept these terms if they do?

The one guest talks about how this weak-dollar push was more popular during the recovery. Unemployment was high, wages were not growing, aggregate demand was bad, etc. Weakening the dollar can help with all of that, but the problem with still pursuing this solution is all of these things have been getting better without weakening the dollar. People are unhappy right now about prices, and a weaker dollar would make everything more expensive.

In Mirren's paper he emphasizes the importance of getting complete capitulation from the rest of the world, and now that we're in this mess, we're just not seeing any.

"There is a path by which these policies can be implemented without material adverse consequences, but it is narrow" - Mirren

I find that use of "narrow" very telling. At least some of the admin is willing to acknowledge how crazy difficult this gambit is. Any of you that subscribe to the idea that the government is not good at central planning anything, let alone something this complex requiring full international cooperation, should have red flags and horns going off.

They made some other interesting points, like the economy is a tanker and the economic data likely won't show tons of pain in the immediate future. They also talked about how "uncertainty is cancer to an economy" and the uncertainty may do more damage than the actual tariffs.

 

[EasternVol]

China owes us and the world for Covid. Their tinkering in Wuhan killed more than 1 million people.

Weren't they doing that under a US contract when Trump was President?

 

[volbound1700]

It's called the Mar-a-lago accord, and it MIGHT be the plan. We aren't sure because Trump has never fkn mentioned it for some reason. I listened to a long podcast about the plan, and took notes for y'all's edification. It's a shot in the dark, and probably won't work because we likely do not have the immense bargaining power required to overcome the terms and also how much we're pissing off everybody. The other concerning part is nobody can be certain Trump would actually agree to the terms of a plan he is not endorsing.

The issue was hitting so many nations at once, they should have focused on only 5-10 of the major infractors, solved that, then gone to next 5-10.

 

[BeardedVol]

So Trump personally made this worse. Gosh, just don't get how a guy who could bankrupt a casino could make such a blunder.

I wouldn't be surprised if this were true. It was reported in his first term that he had to have his daily security briefings condensed down to something like a half sheet of information, written in very basic language, or he couldn't/wouldn't read them.

He probably took one look at the other options and immediately balked because of perceived complexity.

 

[evillawyer]

I wouldn't be surprised if this were true. It was reported on his first term that he had to have his daily security briefings condensed down to something like a half sheet of information, written in very basic language, or he couldn't/wouldn't read them.

He probably took one look at the other options and immediately balked because of perceived complexity.

Apply Trump's Razor: the stupidest explanation is usually the correct explanation

 

[EasternVol]

China thinks the world owes then for what happened in the 19th and early 20th Centuries. It seriously drives their foreign policy.

Not so much the world. Just those who abused them in that time frame. I think Bolivia's off the hook.

 

[Ashevolle]

i’m not worried.

That tracks

 

[jmacvols1]

I read an interesting article the other day questioning why we are trying to bring back the manufacturing jobs. He stated that today's youngsters have no aspirations to work in a factory environment 8 hours a day. They want high tech, AI, jobs and/or jobs they can work from home. Maybe resurrecting these jobs is like bringing back the Blockbuster stores of the 80/90s or the dinosaurs. Their time has passed.

how many millions of 12th grade students have graduated over the last several years possessing only a 7th grade level math, science, reading skills? not every one has the ability for high technical, critical thinking jobs therefore good paying manufacturing jobs will be always be needed. The country needs factory workers. plumbers as much as AI engineers. Every job is important and nothing wrong at all with good paying factory workers who can afford to buy a house, pay the bills, save some money and afford a few good things life has to offer.

 

[Majors]

I read an interesting article the other day questioning why we are trying to bring back the manufacturing jobs. He stated that today's youngsters have no aspirations to work in a factory environment 8 hours a day. They want high tech, AI, jobs and/or jobs they can work from home. Maybe resurrecting these jobs is like bringing back the Blockbuster stores of the 80/90s or the dinosaurs. Their time has passed. The chances of a recession has gone way up since the tariffs with no end in sight for worsening inflation. Yes the American government will benefit from the increased revenue but will they pass this down to the average American who will suffer from further increases in cost of living? If so, OK. However, a lot of money has been erased in the stock market in the last week, and no the stock market isn't just rich people. There are allot of middle class people hoping to supplement their retirement with it. Try living on a Social Security check!

The participation trophy generation trying to adult now.

Stock market is all about gains and erases. If you’re 61 and your birthday is in May then you should worry for not adjusting your portfolio. Anyone 50 or younger will make long terms gains on the cheaper buys. Just a few years ago the left was stating the stock market is not the economy.

 

[mrorange211]

I’m not disagreeing with you on that but it’s still way too early to be acting like the sky is falling.

You're growing on me

 

[lawgator1]

The participation trophy generation trying to adult now.

Stock market is all about gains and erases. If you’re 61 and your birthday is in May then you should worry for not adjusting your portfolio. Anyone 50 or younger will make long terms gains on the cheaper buys. Just a few years ago the left was stating the stock market is not the economy.

I'm 61. Trump is killing my financial future.

 

[whodeycin85]

Vietnam is a sweatshop.

Think of the children.

Can't do that gotta get the Nike apperal cheap as possible..these people are hypocritical POS and care nothing about anyone but themselves and their social media credit..it's disgusting

 

[Majors]

I'm 61. Trump is killing my financial future.

May want to speak with your advisor, it’s not Trump killing your financial future.

 

[lawgator1]

Can't do that gotta get the Nike apperal cheap as possible..these people are hypocritical POS and care nothing about anyone but themselves and their social media credit..it's disgusting

Oh sure, sure. The tariffs are all about helping out the foreign labor.

Sure.

 

[lawgator1]

May want to speak with your advisor, it’s not Trump killing your financial future.

Yes he is. And he's guaranteeing a Dem sweep in '26.

 

[Majors]

Yes he is. And he's guaranteeing a Dem sweep in '26.

Dems are polling lower than ever. I’m not too worried about 1.5 years from today when they have leadership.

 

[Berry4Heisman14]

Yes he is. And he's guaranteeing a Dem sweep in '26.

The funny thing is, is if Biden was the one doing these tariffs the same people in here defending trump would be throwing a fit. We are living in a south park episode

 

[evillawyer]

Make smuggling great again!

 

[BeardedVol]

The funny thing is, is if Biden was the one doing these tariffs the same people in here defending trump would be throwing a fit. We are living in a south park episode

You guys keep saying this, as it's some defense to to Trump's idiocy, but in 8 years of Obama, and 4 of Biden, they didn't employ the dumbest method of tariffing ever devised.

 

[Berry4Heisman14]

You guys keep saying this, as it's some defense to to Trump's idiocy, but in 8 years of Obama, and 4 of Biden, they didn't employ the dumbest method of tariffing ever devised.

I don’t like the left or the right. All crooks. Trump is just the worst.