Trade Wars and Tariffs

[LouderVol]

Can you post links to your rants instead of copying and pasting other peoples work?

I do appreciate that he has stopped giving grok credit for doing the work for him. probably puts it in the prompt "make the response seem likes it wasn't done by AI".

 

[MontyPython]

Can you post links to your rants instead of copying and pasting other peoples work?

Let me clear, concise and without even an iota of confusion in my response to you @hog88.

Suck it, moron.

Ahh... that feels better.

Again, I do apologize for being capable of constructing comprehensive, detailed posts with big words that likely confuse you. That's on you, Sugart*ts. As for me, you should be happy that a UT education produced something.

And, BTW, nice job attacking the messenger instead of actually responding to the message. Par for the course.

 

[hog88]

Let me clear, concise and without even an iota of confusion in my response to you @hog88.

Suck it, moron.

Ahh... that feels better.

Again, I do apologize for being capable of constructing comprehensive, detailed posts with big words that likely confuse you. That's on you, Sugart*ts. As for me, you should be happy that a UT education produced something.

And, BTW, nice job attacking the messenger instead of actually responding to the message. Par for the course.

See, that wasn't hard now was it? We can all tell that this post wasn't AI generated or assisted, it's clear that this post is 100% authentic TurboMonty.

Welcome back brother.

 

[MontyPython]

See, that wasn't hard now was it? We can all tell that this post wasn't AI generated or assisted, it's clear that this post is 100% authentic TurboMonty.

Welcome back brother.

In case I forgot to mention it...

My vehicle is (once again) needing an oil change. How bouts I drop the rustbucket off on Tuesday...

 

[hog88]

In case I forgot to mention it...

My vehicle is (once again) needing an oil change. How bouts I drop the rustbucket off on Tuesday...

I'll have the shop door open for you.

 

[MontyPython]

I'll have the shop door open for you.

Spank you.

 

[BeardedVol]

 

[jvol1]

https://www.axios.com/2025/11/14/trump-tariffs-food-groceries

Tell me you're out to destroy the country without telling me your out to destroy the country.

 

[jmacvols1]

Loading…

www.frbsf.org

 

[NorthDallas40]

Loading…

www.frbsf.org

Then why did Trump just remove a bunch of his tariffs to lower costs of goods and food?

 

[BeardedVol]

Loading…

www.frbsf.org

 

[jmacvols1]

View attachment 789878

the economy is not weak, 4% GDP expected Q3


consumer spending up





EDIT: the job market was in the toilet under Biden. Trump fired Biden's BLS person for falsely creating almost 2 million fake jobs to make Biden's numbers look good. Those 2 million jobs were revised downward and caused Bloomberg's chief economist to declare the economy was in a recession in April 2024......under Biden..

revised down 911000

Loading…

www.bloomberg.com

revised down 818000

Loading…

www.bloomberg.com

 

[BeardedVol]

the economy is not weak, 4% GDP expected Q3


consumer spending up





EDIT: the job market was in the toilet under Biden. Trump fired Biden's BLS person for falsely creating almost 2 million fake jobs to make Biden's numbers look good. Those 2 million jobs were revised downward and caused Bloomberg's chief economist to declare the economy was in a recession in April 2024......under Biden..

revised down 911000

Loading…

www.bloomberg.com

revised down 818000

Loading…

www.bloomberg.com

What does this have to do with you and the "geiger capitol" completely misrepresenting or just (willfully) not understanding the study you posted?

 

[JMSqb11]

Loading…

www.frbsf.org

The fallacy is that people think the idea of a soft landing or non recession / downturn scenario is even possible.

In 18 months, we created and pumped almost $10t out of thin air into the system. It resulted in a great and positive push up. But all things have an equal and opposite reaction.

You are seeing it with all these companies doing mass layoffs now that were the very same companies going on a hiring spree in 2021/2022 cycle.

The issue is the adults never really wanted to entertain the idea and be honest that we are going to have to go thru a tough downturn to flush out all the spending / inflation actions during and after covid.

We are still spending like we are in the midst of the fall of 2020 yet we have been out of the pandemic for 4 years.

Only way to get inflation solved is for a recession. I for one was wishing Powell would have pushed rates up to the 7-8% range. Just rip the bandaid off instead of trying to be cute.

 

[jmacvols1]

What does this have to do with you and the "geiger capitol" completely misrepresenting or just (willfully) not understanding the study you posted?

the reader comment claim was made that tariffs create a weak economy, I showed the expected GDP for Q3 is 4%....that is not a weak economy.

The study showed tariffs historically have not caused inflation, so what do the VN tariff experts have to say about that?

 

[jmacvols1]

Only way to get inflation solved is for a recession.

Truflation shows inflation at 2.5% way down from Biden's 9%+. I would say 2% inflation is a good number. I would say 3% unemployment is a good number.

 

[JMSqb11]

Truflation shows inflation at 2.5% way down from Biden's 9%+. I would say 2% inflation is a good number.

One thing I agree on is that the 7%+ time period under Biden will be felt for about 3-4 years at minimum. But this notion that 2% inflation will ever be met or held over substantial time again. Like I said, I think all these adults refuse to recognize reality and admit that 2% isn't not a realistic goal for their own measures.

Just like interest rates, the 0-2% time periods were the anomalies, not the 2% and higher time periods.

The soft landing narrative has always been a fallacy. But saying that means you are admitting defeat in a political cycle where you have to promise only positive outcomes.

 

[BeardedVol]

the reader comment claim was made that tariffs create a weak economy, I showed the expected GDP for Q3 is 4%....that is not a weak economy.

The study showed tariffs historically have not caused inflation, so what do the VN tariff experts have to say about that?

What?

Fed researchers say tariffs actually lower inflation — because they're demand shocks that slam employment and economic activity | Fortune

"Instead, tariff shocks appear to act as aggregate demand shocks—moving inflation and unemployment in the same directions."

fortune.com

 

[jmacvols1]

One thing I agree on is that the 7%+ time period under Biden will be felt for about 3-4 years at minimum. But this notion that 2% inflation will ever be met or held over substantial time again. Like I said, I think all these adults refuse to recognize reality and admit that 2% isn't not a realistic goal for their own measures.

Just like interest rates, the 0-2% time periods were the anomalies, not the 2% and higher time periods.

The soft landing narrative has always been a fallacy. But saying that means you are admitting defeat in a political cycle where you have to promise only positive outcomes.

I believe that high inflation as under Biden can leave some scars on the economy that will never go away. Some prices on things will never go down...
Unions wanted wage increases under Biden so wages could keep up with inflation. Inflation drops to 2.5 % but wages stay high and the associated wage costs for business does not go away.


==================

Google AI

High inflation, such as that experienced under the Biden administration, is generally considered to have permanent effects on the price level and significant long-term impacts on household purchasing power, which some economists describe as "scars" on the economy and public psyche. The cumulative effects of price increases are permanent, meaning prices are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.
Key long-term effects and economic scars include:

• Permanent Reduction in Purchasing Power: Prices rose by over 20% during the Biden administration, while average earnings grew by less than that when adjusted for inflation. This means a typical paycheck permanently buys less than it did at the beginning of 2021, creating a lasting reduction in the standard of living for many families, particularly those at the lower end of the income spectrum.
• Erosion of Savings: Families reportedly spent the entirety of their pandemic-era savings by 2024 to cope with higher costs, diminishing their long-term financial security.
• Increased Debt Burden: Inflation-adjusted credit card debt increased significantly, and consumer credit debt exceeded $1 trillion, indicating a lasting shift in household balance sheets.
• • Housing Affordability Crisis: Monthly mortgage payments on a median-priced home nearly doubled under the Biden administration due to a combination of high home prices and rising interest rates instituted by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation. This has created a significant and lasting barrier to homeownership for many.
  • Distortion of Economic Decisions: High and volatile inflation can distort investment decisions and reduce the efficiency with which productive factors are used, potentially leading to lower long-run economic growth.
  • Psychological Impact: High inflation has had a significant psychological toll on Americans, with a majority reporting that it made their financial lives worse. This has created a lasting negative perception of the economy among a broad segment of the population, regardless of other positive indicators like job growth.

While some economists argue that a full reversal of the price level is not a practical or desirable goal (as it could cause a severe recession), the cumulative effect of high prices remains and represents a permanent change from the pre-2021 economic baseline.

 

[JMSqb11]

I believe that high inflation as under Biden can leave some scars on the economy that will never go away. Some prices on things will never go down...
Unions wanted wage increases under Biden so wages could keep up with inflation. Inflation drops to 2.5 % but wages stay high and the associated wage costs for business does not go away.


==================

Google AI

High inflation, such as that experienced under the Biden administration, is generally considered to have permanent effects on the price level and significant long-term impacts on household purchasing power, which some economists describe as "scars" on the economy and public psyche. The cumulative effects of price increases are permanent, meaning prices are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.
Key long-term effects and economic scars include:

• Permanent Reduction in Purchasing Power: Prices rose by over 20% during the Biden administration, while average earnings grew by less than that when adjusted for inflation. This means a typical paycheck permanently buys less than it did at the beginning of 2021, creating a lasting reduction in the standard of living for many families, particularly those at the lower end of the income spectrum.
• Erosion of Savings: Families reportedly spent the entirety of their pandemic-era savings by 2024 to cope with higher costs, diminishing their long-term financial security.
• Increased Debt Burden: Inflation-adjusted credit card debt increased significantly, and consumer credit debt exceeded $1 trillion, indicating a lasting shift in household balance sheets.
• • Housing Affordability Crisis: Monthly mortgage payments on a median-priced home nearly doubled under the Biden administration due to a combination of high home prices and rising interest rates instituted by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation. This has created a significant and lasting barrier to homeownership for many.
  • Distortion of Economic Decisions: High and volatile inflation can distort investment decisions and reduce the efficiency with which productive factors are used, potentially leading to lower long-run economic growth.
  • Psychological Impact: High inflation has had a significant psychological toll on Americans, with a majority reporting that it made their financial lives worse. This has created a lasting negative perception of the economy among a broad segment of the population, regardless of other positive indicators like job growth.

While some economists argue that a full reversal of the price level is not a practical or desirable goal (as it could cause a severe recession), the cumulative effect of high prices remains and represents a permanent change from the pre-2021 economic baseline.

Oh I agree with all of that. But there is simply no soft landing scenario where everything gets back to somewhat normal.

We should revert back to within 10-12% pre covid spending levels. To do that, that would mean 4.5-5.3 Trillion in spending. That requires cutting $1.5-1.7t in spending. There is no world where we do that and a much needed recession doesn't occur. So as expected, these idiots printed and spent trillions out of thin air and now don't want to close it down even though the sales pitch was it being temporary because of the pandemic.

 

[jmacvols1]

What?

Fed researchers say tariffs actually lower inflation — because they're demand shocks that slam employment and economic activity | Fortune

"Instead, tariff shocks appear to act as aggregate demand shocks—moving inflation and unemployment in the same directions."

fortune.com

"tanking" economy???? 4% expected 3Q GDP is a 'tanking' economy???

 

[jmacvols1]

Oh I agree with all of that. But there is simply no soft landing scenario where everything gets back to somewhat normal.

We should revert back to within 10-12% pre covid spending levels. To do that, that would mean 4.5-5.3 Trillion in spending. That requires cutting $1.5-1.7t in spending. There is no world where we do that and a much needed recession doesn't occur. So as expected, these idiots printed and spent trillions out of thin air and now don't want to close it down even though the sales pitch was it being temporary because of the pandemic.

I'm not sure a full blown recession would help, again truflation is almost at the 2% level the Fed wants. A modest downturn could help lower some prices on some things. People should just get use to the idea that prices on some things will never go down.

 

[BeardedVol]

"tanking" economy???? 4% expected 3Q GDP is a 'tanking' economy???

3rd quarter gdp was 3.1%, and tariff revenue as a portion of GDP tripled.

 

[jmacvols1]

3rd quarter gdp was 3.1%, and tariff revenue as a portion of GDP tripled.
View attachment 789891

where did you get 3.1% 3Q GDP number?

AI Overview

Official data for U.S. 3rd Quarter (Q3) 2025 GDP is unavailable due to a government shutdown, but estimates range widely, with some models like the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow projecting around 4.0% and others, like the New York Fed's Nowcast, estimating around 2.3%. Other estimates from sources like the Wall Street Journal survey predict a median of 2.7%.

 

[JMSqb11]

I'm not sure a full blown recession would help, again truflation is almost at the 2% level the Fed wants. A modest downturn could help lower some prices on some things. People should just get use to the idea that prices on some things will never go down.

You can't fix deficit without a recession caused by trillion plus dollar spending cuts. Like even with the tariffs. That was sold to shrink deficit. Now its being talked about using up 10 months worth of tariffs revenue for checks lol.

Restraint solves all.