Top Ten

[Mccage]

You can count the number of composite 5 stars, 4 stars and 3 stars annually going back quite a ways here:

2023 Top Football Recruits

Here's analysis on 5 stars having better odds of being drafted than 4 stars, etc.

Do stars predict a recruit’s success?

How recruiting rankings fare projecting future NFL Draft picks

On the correlation between recruiting at a high level and winning national championships:

Blue-Chip Ratio 2021: The 16 teams who can win a national title

Thanks

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Thanks

No problem, again, no reasonable person argues that recruiting rankings are perfect, but they are statistically valid in that you are generally better off to recruit well as a team than not to and your odds as a recruit of getting to the next level get higher with each additional star.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Over a year ago the majority didn't think we would win 4 games. Most was hoping for a 3 to 4 year turn around . I'm still thinking that's the case. Florida still has at least the same or maybe more talent than us. We sure don't need to underestimate BIlly Napier, he can Coach. I still got my foot on the brakes but my foot is getting a little lighter.

Last year, ESPN's preseason FPI had us winning 6.6 regular season games and we won 7. The worst negavols may have thought we were a 4 win team but I don't think the majority of people did, inside or outside the fanbase.

 

[sjt18]

Respectfully disagree. The NIL contracts are top short term for a player to treat it like free agency. Looking for the next pay day cannot be good for college football as we know it.

CFB is going to change. That's not in question. What we knew if pretty much gone. It is what happens from here.... what does the least damage. Probably the worst thing that could happen now would be for the NCAA to try to regulate NIL or replace it with a direct pay system. The market will create pain and pain will create discipline.

 

[peaygolf]

CFB is going to change. That's not in question. What we knew if pretty much gone. It is what happens from here.... what does the least damage. Probably the worst thing that could happen now would be for the NCAA to try to regulate NIL or replace it with a direct pay system. The market will create pain and pain will create discipline.

Unions, strikes, etc…….are on the horizon.

 

[sjt18]

Unions, strikes, etc…….are on the horizon.

If they make them employees by paying the directly then that's inevitable. Everything that made me stop watching professional sports.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Never forget that the majority of NFL players were 3 star recruits in college.

Development is huge in college and the 5 star bust is not that uncommon.

The NFL is full of 3* players because the services don’t award that many 4 and 5*. Also, saying that about the NFL in relation to college is irrelevant.

 

[Devo182]

It continues to blow my mind whenever I see the “more three stars in the NFL” argument. It’s common sense and people just can’t seem to grasp it.

A story as old as time.

US education doesn't seem to teach basic analytical and statistical reasoning.

 

[Devo182]

Never forget that the majority of NFL players were 3 star recruits in college.

Development is huge in college and the 5 star bust is not that uncommon.

Another person that doesn't grasp basic statistics and probabilities. Smh

 

[Hairy Vols]

I'd go with we'd be a top ten team.

As crazy as it sounds.. playing Bama and Georgia every year if we had the #10 class every season and never higher or lower we may find ourselves still outside the top 10 on a regular basis.

 

[DustyRockSolid]

With NIL changing the recruiting landscape, UGA and Bama are struggling to get dominant classes. Just look at the ‘23 class, they have a combined 3 5*. At this point in previous years they’d each have at least that. Another look at the 23 class shows those top players are being spread out much more than they had in the last 20 years.
Getting a top 10 class and utilizing the portal properly will most definitely mean a great chance to compete for the title in the coming years.

Its my opinion that the NIL hurt all future recruiting for the top teams like Bama and GA.
Because now suddenly theres teams these kids werent considering, but now they are. Cause money.

 

[VFLCodyGBO]

Question. It seems to me if we can recruit a top ten class every year we can compete at the highest level. What do you think?

Top 10 is great, but to be truly elite you need to be top 5. Top 5 wins national titles (except for Clemson with their first). Top 10s keep us ranked and competitive, which would be great for the next 5 years or so.

 

[LWSVOL]

Can you link us that data?

this link is just 2015 recruiting class from Rivals. 8,443 prospects. Sorted by star ratings with 5 stars first. This is an example of how every year looks.

Rivals.com

 

[Carl Pickens]

Only if said players pan out.

And they’re the right mix of positions and etc

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Can you link us that data?

A couple of others have linked the data for you. I thought I might pitch in by showing you how those numbers look graphically:



You want to be in the purple (5*) circle, because it means you've got better than even odds (specifically, a 61% chance) of being drafted. If you're a 4*, you only have a 24% chance. And if you're a 3*, just 5% chance.

That can all be true and it also be true that 3* players make up the bulk of the draft.

Hope this helps.

Go Vols!