Tony Barnhart picks Vols to beat Florida

[Behr]

Sounds scientific...and battered.

That's full of awesomeness.

 

[Behr]

 

[KBVol]

KB, you and I agree an awful lot of the time. But on this one thing, we disagree.

The only people who start counting the Vols-Gators streak at 1976 are (1) gators, (2) masochists, or (3) serious Eeyores.

I mean, I could see starting counting at 1990, since that's when we started playing each other EVERY year. I could see starting counting at 1916, even, if you want to be all-inclusive.

But there's no good reason to start at 1976, unless you like to paint things in absolutely the most favorable Florida light possible.

And the point is, you don't even need to do that. We're just 7-21 in the 1990-2017 continuous run. That's plenty of misery without reaching back for more.

Another way of looking at it: The Vols are 19-15 against the Gators up through 2004. Now, I never bring that angle up, because it is cherry-picking the data set.

But so is starting at 1976.

So we're just gonna have to disagree on the utility or wisdom of you picking that start point. :hi:

First off JP, you’re disagreeing with something I didn’t say in the post you responded to.

I said “We’ve had a whole buncha competent coaching staffs since the Carter Administration.....virtually none have been able to beat Florida since then.” That’s an accurate statement, I’m not sure how anyone can disagree with it

That said, I’ll address what you actually disagree with me on, which is fair....and that’s using 1976 as the cutpoint for illustrating/substantiating that Tennessee struggles beating Florida. I know you think that’s a random, even unfair measuring point, but I disagree. I don’t think it’s cherry picking at all....it’s looking at data, a big sample size and pointing out a huge disparity over a long period of time.

To me, cherry picking would be looking at a much shorter period of time, a much smaller sample of games and making a absolute statement that’s skewed by a very limited set of data. For example, if I looked at say 2006-2017, where we’re 1-12, and said “we can’t beat Florida, we never beat Florida”. Same could be said the other way if I looked only at the series from 2001-2004, when Tennessee won 3 of 4, if I’d have said “Fulmer owns Florida”.....of course, it would’ve been neither a fair nor a true statement.

We’re 7-25 vs Florida, which is the point of the exercise....we’re 7-25 in a modern era of football vs Florida, and having to go back to games that spanned from 1916 to 1953 to try and level things out only highlights how thoroughly we’ve been dominated by the Gators in our lifetimes.

Either way, all one need do is pick your spot, pick any data point the last 50 or so years, and Tennessee comes up woefully short....unless you’re willing to go back, as I said, and look how we did when we were wearing leather helmets with no face masks and the country was still fighting world wars.

And for the record, I don’t harp on our futility vs Florida to be Eyeore, I do it because I’m still just incredulous that after all these years, after all the different coaches and players, after all the good and bad teams on both sides, that Florida, with very rare exceptions, just always beats Tennessee. And rather than relying on voodoo or ouija boards like some like to say to try and discredit the observation that Florida football owns Tennessee football, all I’m doing is looking at empirical data.....and I’m doing it while shaking my head with a tremendous amount of incredulity.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

<interesting post, full of good info and perspective--see above>

I know, man, one of the first things I learned about you when I joined the boards 3 or so years ago, after the fact that you're insightful and enjoyable to discuss football with, was that you've got this real focus on Florida as an opponent. It looms large for you.

Totally understandable. I just wish you'd pick a different year, one tied to anything (anything) other than when Florida started winning more than us. That's a very Florida-favorable year choice.

• 1990 is a good one, as I mentioned. First year we started playing regularly. We're 7-21 against them starting then.
• If you want to go back to when we adopted modern (plastic) helmets (you mentioned the leather ones), you could start at 1940. We're 14-27 against the Gators since then.
• Or the truly modern helmet, complete with face guard, dates back to about 1955. We're 10-26 over that stretch.

You'll notice none of these time periods favor Tennessee. I'm not trying to paint things in our favor. I'm just saying, let's don't do it in a way that so explicitly fawns over the Gator's good fortune. Something tied to any other objective kind of start.

I personally like including the entire series (20-27), or beginning with the game becoming an annual event in 1990 (7-21).

But you will do as you wish. Just trying to get you to bend a littttttle bit away from the lizards perspective.

 

[stevenrich2003]

If CJP can pull out a W against the gators in year 1 I dont think any of volnation will be calling for him to get fired till we get our doors blown off by Georgia.

 

[99gator]

I know, man, one of the first things I learned about you when I joined the boards 3 or so years ago, after the fact that you're insightful and enjoyable to discuss football with, was that you've got this real focus on Florida as an opponent. It looms large for you.

Totally understandable. I just wish you'd pick a different year, one tied to anything (anything) other than when Florida started winning more than us. That's a very Florida-favorable year choice.

• 1990 is a good one, as I mentioned. First year we started playing regularly. We're 7-21 against them starting then.
• If you want to go back to when we adopted modern (plastic) helmets (you mentioned the leather ones), you could start at 1940. We're 14-27 against the Gators since then.
• Or the truly modern helmet, complete with face guard, dates back to about 1955. We're 10-26 over that stretch.

You'll notice none of these time periods favor Tennessee. I'm not trying to paint things in our favor. I'm just saying, let's don't do it in a way that so explicitly fawns over the Gator's good fortune. Something tied to any other objective kind of start.

I personally like including the entire series (20-27), or beginning with the game becoming an annual event in 1990 (7-21).

But you will do as you wish. Just trying to get you to bend a littttttle bit away from the lizards perspective.

I believe there are 3 eras in college football.

1. Pre-integration.
2. Post-integration and pre cable television (a very short time frame).
3. Post cable television.

The third era I would break up in subsets based on conference expansion. Arkansas is a great example as to why. There is Arkansas football in the SWC and there is Arkansas football in the SEC. And it's a big difference.

Ignoring the subset thing, while everyone is wrapped up in hating ESPN, they will have a special place in my heart because cable television killed Notre Dame

That's how I personally do it.

So, when you mention "eras" and where Tennessee struggles with Florida, it's post-integration.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I believe there are 3 eras.

1. Pre-integration.
2. Post-integration and pre cable television (a very short time frame).
3. Post cable television.

The third era I would break up in subsets based on conference expansion. Arkansas is a great example as to why. There is Arkansas football in the SWC and there is Arkansas football in the SEC. And it's a big difference.

Ignoring the subset thing, while everyone is wrapped up in hating ESPN, they will have a special place in my heart because cable television killed Notre Dame

That's how I personally do it.

So, when you mention "eras" and where Tennessee struggles with Florida, it's post-integration.

Integration is certainly a watershed event that makes sense as a barrier. In fact, it makes more sense than the type helmets being worn.

Integration happened for Tennessee in 1968 (two years later, Florida integrated as well). From 1968, the Vols-Gators record is 9-26 in favor of the reptiles. That's almost the same as the 1955 "modern helmet" division, just one game happened in those 13 years.

Not sure what you meant by the advent of cable TV. Cable started in the late 1940s or early 1950s, but you're probably talking about cable sports programming, and more specifically, ESPN. That channel started carrying college football in about 1984, when a big court ruling gave them an opening to establish contracts with schools and conferences. In other words, that's when the broadcast rights $$$ started to flow, with corresponding impact on programs across the nation. Since 1984, the Vols are 7-23 vs the Gators.

So yep, two other decent places to draw an objective line.

I still like the 1990 "we've played every year since then" line the best, if you don't want to go full-history. But those are at least objective.

All these choices make more sense than 1976 for anyone but a Gator fan.

 

[99gator]

Integration is certainly a watershed event that makes sense as a barrier. In fact, it makes more sense than the type helmets being worn.

Integration happened for Tennessee in 1968 (two years later, Florida integrated as well). From 1968, the Vols-Gators record is 9-26 in favor of the reptiles. That's almost the same as the 1955 "modern helmet" division, just one game happened in those 13 years.

Not sure what you meant by the advent of cable TV. Cable started in the late 1940s or early 1950s, but you're probably talking about cable sports programming, and more specifically, ESPN. That channel started carrying college football in about 1984, when a big court ruling gave them an opening to establish contracts with schools and conferences. In other words, that's when the broadcast rights $$$ started to flow, with corresponding impact on programs across the nation. Since 1984, the Vols are 7-23 vs the Gators.

So yep, two other decent places to draw an objective line.

I still like the 1990 "we've played every year since then" line the best, if you don't want to go full-history. But those are at least objective.

All these choices make more sense than 1976 for anyone but a Gator fan.

The cable TV argument stems from the fact that because everyone is on television now, recruiting and stature of programs has changed significantly. And, yes, I was referring specifically to ESPN

In 1974, I'm sure a kid from Tampa probably saw Notre Dame more often on television than Florida or Florida State. Probably combined.