DiderotsGhost
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Where do you all think the SEC teams will finish in each division? Where will UT finish? Here are my lousy sure-to-be-wrong predictions!
SEC East
1. Georgia. Feels like I pick Georgia every year and I’m wrong every year, even though the logic is right every year. We’ll give it another go this season. Jacob Eason should improve significantly in his 2nd season. Georgia has one of the strongest running attacks in the nation and perhaps the only team that can compete with Alabama’s depth at running back. Defense has a lot of great players and Kirby Smart should be able to see big improvement on that end. On paper, Georgia looks like the best team in the SEC East and probably the 2nd best team in the SEC. On the other hand, we know how the “on paper” thing has worked out most of this decade for Georgia. Maybe Kirby Smart finally ends the underperformance issues; or maybe not. We’ll see.
2. Tennessee. We're underrated this season. We have much more talent than the analysts are giving us credit for. Our new QBs are underrated; our running game is underrated; our defense is underrated. Yet, I'm still reluctant to pick us to win the East primarily because our schedule is front-loaded and we're breaking in a lot of new starters on offense. Moreover, we always have the toughest crossover schedule with the West; this year we draw LSU as our 2nd opponent, on top of an absolutely loaded Bama team. Still some concerns with LB and WR depth as well. The Road to Atlanta won't be easy, but I could see this team doing as well as 9-3.
3. South Carolina. South Carolina’s offense looks surprisingly good right now. Jake Bentley has emerged as a legit QB and SCe has a stable of top-notch Wide Receivers. Steve Spurrier may have resigned abruptly after a disappointing season in 2015, but he did leave a lot of good in place for Muschamp. Muschamp is also rather conveniently known as a guy that can mold top-notch defenses. Overall, I think it’s a recipe for success. South Carolina is definitely in the conversation for most underrated SEC team this preseason. I’d consider SCe a good dark horse candidate to win the SEC East; underestimate them at your own peril.
4. Florida. Florida is my pick for “2nd most overrated” preseason in the SEC (Kentucky is probably more overrated). Outside of Ole Miss, Florida has one of the weakest rushing attacks in the SEC. They have 3 mediocre QBs and no true starter. They lose many superstars on defense, who they are going to have a difficult time replacing. Thus far, all Jim McElwain has done is take Will Muschamp’s players and get them to perform as expected. That led to two impressive, albeit unspectacular, SEC East titles. I don’t know that the trend continues this season.
5. Vanderbilt. Give credit where credit is due: Derek Mason may be the best defensive coach in the nation. He’s playing with less talent, but he has made Vandy competitive. But still nowhere near good enough to compete for the SEC East.
6. Missouri. Defense looks terrible. Offense, on the other hand, is coming alive. Former 3-star recruit Damarea Crockett has proven to be a diamond in the rough at RB. Drew Lock is one of the better QBs in the SEC. Offense can only take them so far, though.
7. Kentucky. I don’t understand why Kentucky is the “hot pick” this season. They lost their best playmaker in Boom Williams. At no point during the Mark Stoops era have they had any semblance of a defense. Their running game won’t be as good this year as last season and they weren’t really “elite” last season either. About the only thing to like is their “easy schedule”; that easy schedule which includes non-cons against Southern Miss, Eastern Kentucky, and Eastern Michigan, as well as SEC West opponent Ole Miss could help Kentucky make another bowl game, but I don’t think it’s enough to allow them to succeed in the SEC East. They still have to face an underrated Miss State team on the road, play the SEC East, and Louisville. I think this is a 5 or 6 win team.
SEC West
1. Alabama. Absolutely loaded at almost every position. We may hate them, but tough to deny they are the favorites in the SEC by a wide margin.
2. Auburn. Jarrett Stidham and a reasonably strong running game. I could see Auburn making some noise again this season after a few disappointing years. Some concerns about the defense still.
3. Mississippi State. Underrated as usual. Dan Mullen is one of the best coaches in college football. He has done more with less than any coach since Bill Snyder. Nick Fitzgerald is a dual threat QB in the mold of Dak Prescott and he’s arguably the best QB in the SEC. Also like Dak, he was a largely unheralded 3-star recruit. Aeris Williams provides an additional running threat.
4. LSU. On one hand, LSU’s defense is loaded and they have one of the best Running Backs in the nation with Guice Williams. On the other hand, they still have the perpetual problem of not having a legit QB, and their depth at offensive skill positions is surprisingly weak for a recruiting powerhouse. Behind Guice, I’m not sure that LSU has anyone else who would be a major threat running the ball. Ed Orgeron was good as temporary placeholder at USC, but his track record as a head coach is less than stellar. I could see LSU finishing as high as 2nd with a 10-2 record, but I could also see them disappointing.
5. Texas A&M. The SEC West is tough to pick. I could see A&M finishing #2 in the West. On paper, the defense is loaded, but they’ve underperformed; I suspect this is partly because A&M’s fast-pace undermines the defense. The running game looks reasonably strong. Question marks at QB, but Kevin Sumlin has generally produced good QBs. So I could see A&M doing better than expected, but there’s nothing about this team that jumps out and screams “SEC West contender!”
6. Arkansas. The difference between #2 and #6 in the SEC West is razor thin. I like Arkansas’ passing game. Another team I could see finishing #3 in the West or #6, but like A&M, nothing really stands out about them right now, so I feel like the upside may be more limited than with a team like Auburn or LSU.
7. Ole Miss. This is the worst team in the SEC this season. Absolutely no running game. An overrated QB. Defense will drop off. Scandals at the program have hurt recruiting which should create more depth issues as well. In the SEC West, there’s three tiers in my mind: Bama (#1), the pack (#2 - #6), and Ole Miss (#7). Ole Miss isn’t even close to the pack. They will be bad.\
SEC Champ
Alabama. Barf!
SEC East
1. Georgia. Feels like I pick Georgia every year and I’m wrong every year, even though the logic is right every year. We’ll give it another go this season. Jacob Eason should improve significantly in his 2nd season. Georgia has one of the strongest running attacks in the nation and perhaps the only team that can compete with Alabama’s depth at running back. Defense has a lot of great players and Kirby Smart should be able to see big improvement on that end. On paper, Georgia looks like the best team in the SEC East and probably the 2nd best team in the SEC. On the other hand, we know how the “on paper” thing has worked out most of this decade for Georgia. Maybe Kirby Smart finally ends the underperformance issues; or maybe not. We’ll see.
2. Tennessee. We're underrated this season. We have much more talent than the analysts are giving us credit for. Our new QBs are underrated; our running game is underrated; our defense is underrated. Yet, I'm still reluctant to pick us to win the East primarily because our schedule is front-loaded and we're breaking in a lot of new starters on offense. Moreover, we always have the toughest crossover schedule with the West; this year we draw LSU as our 2nd opponent, on top of an absolutely loaded Bama team. Still some concerns with LB and WR depth as well. The Road to Atlanta won't be easy, but I could see this team doing as well as 9-3.
3. South Carolina. South Carolina’s offense looks surprisingly good right now. Jake Bentley has emerged as a legit QB and SCe has a stable of top-notch Wide Receivers. Steve Spurrier may have resigned abruptly after a disappointing season in 2015, but he did leave a lot of good in place for Muschamp. Muschamp is also rather conveniently known as a guy that can mold top-notch defenses. Overall, I think it’s a recipe for success. South Carolina is definitely in the conversation for most underrated SEC team this preseason. I’d consider SCe a good dark horse candidate to win the SEC East; underestimate them at your own peril.
4. Florida. Florida is my pick for “2nd most overrated” preseason in the SEC (Kentucky is probably more overrated). Outside of Ole Miss, Florida has one of the weakest rushing attacks in the SEC. They have 3 mediocre QBs and no true starter. They lose many superstars on defense, who they are going to have a difficult time replacing. Thus far, all Jim McElwain has done is take Will Muschamp’s players and get them to perform as expected. That led to two impressive, albeit unspectacular, SEC East titles. I don’t know that the trend continues this season.
5. Vanderbilt. Give credit where credit is due: Derek Mason may be the best defensive coach in the nation. He’s playing with less talent, but he has made Vandy competitive. But still nowhere near good enough to compete for the SEC East.
6. Missouri. Defense looks terrible. Offense, on the other hand, is coming alive. Former 3-star recruit Damarea Crockett has proven to be a diamond in the rough at RB. Drew Lock is one of the better QBs in the SEC. Offense can only take them so far, though.
7. Kentucky. I don’t understand why Kentucky is the “hot pick” this season. They lost their best playmaker in Boom Williams. At no point during the Mark Stoops era have they had any semblance of a defense. Their running game won’t be as good this year as last season and they weren’t really “elite” last season either. About the only thing to like is their “easy schedule”; that easy schedule which includes non-cons against Southern Miss, Eastern Kentucky, and Eastern Michigan, as well as SEC West opponent Ole Miss could help Kentucky make another bowl game, but I don’t think it’s enough to allow them to succeed in the SEC East. They still have to face an underrated Miss State team on the road, play the SEC East, and Louisville. I think this is a 5 or 6 win team.
SEC West
1. Alabama. Absolutely loaded at almost every position. We may hate them, but tough to deny they are the favorites in the SEC by a wide margin.
2. Auburn. Jarrett Stidham and a reasonably strong running game. I could see Auburn making some noise again this season after a few disappointing years. Some concerns about the defense still.
3. Mississippi State. Underrated as usual. Dan Mullen is one of the best coaches in college football. He has done more with less than any coach since Bill Snyder. Nick Fitzgerald is a dual threat QB in the mold of Dak Prescott and he’s arguably the best QB in the SEC. Also like Dak, he was a largely unheralded 3-star recruit. Aeris Williams provides an additional running threat.
4. LSU. On one hand, LSU’s defense is loaded and they have one of the best Running Backs in the nation with Guice Williams. On the other hand, they still have the perpetual problem of not having a legit QB, and their depth at offensive skill positions is surprisingly weak for a recruiting powerhouse. Behind Guice, I’m not sure that LSU has anyone else who would be a major threat running the ball. Ed Orgeron was good as temporary placeholder at USC, but his track record as a head coach is less than stellar. I could see LSU finishing as high as 2nd with a 10-2 record, but I could also see them disappointing.
5. Texas A&M. The SEC West is tough to pick. I could see A&M finishing #2 in the West. On paper, the defense is loaded, but they’ve underperformed; I suspect this is partly because A&M’s fast-pace undermines the defense. The running game looks reasonably strong. Question marks at QB, but Kevin Sumlin has generally produced good QBs. So I could see A&M doing better than expected, but there’s nothing about this team that jumps out and screams “SEC West contender!”
6. Arkansas. The difference between #2 and #6 in the SEC West is razor thin. I like Arkansas’ passing game. Another team I could see finishing #3 in the West or #6, but like A&M, nothing really stands out about them right now, so I feel like the upside may be more limited than with a team like Auburn or LSU.
7. Ole Miss. This is the worst team in the SEC this season. Absolutely no running game. An overrated QB. Defense will drop off. Scandals at the program have hurt recruiting which should create more depth issues as well. In the SEC West, there’s three tiers in my mind: Bama (#1), the pack (#2 - #6), and Ole Miss (#7). Ole Miss isn’t even close to the pack. They will be bad.\
SEC Champ
Alabama. Barf!
