Thoughts after three games (long read)

[Tnphil]

To be fair he hasnt earned the chance to prove how talented he is. He isn't ready to show that. He needs to develope and improve some flaws in his game. Little bit premature to write him off. Remember hr has 4 years to play. Physical attributes are not his issue. He looks as if he is thinking to much and not trusting his reads. Making his decision making slow. Its like being a true freshman all over again. The previous staff did nothing to help any qb on this roster. That is proven. Lets give Heupel the year to work eith HB and reevaluate. If he transfers thrn its likely he was asked to move on. If he stays there is a plan in place. Thats the best thing to do for now and I agree we should focus on Hooker and Milton they are the most game ready we have at this time. You know guys it does make a difference hiw you play depending on the talent level around you. Thats not an excuse it is fact. If our first team OL cant block anyone. They have given up 9 sacks collectively numerous QB pressures and that has resulted in some turnovers with mobile qbs. Imagine whats going through your head with an OL like our 3rd team. Let it play out. I wanted to see Bailey play too, he had some positives but he also has game film that the staff can breakdown in this offense.

Good post....Bailey pretty much is still a Freshman IMO....True Freshman last year that had no Spring....no Summer....Missed 2 weeks to start the Fall camp and pretty much didn't get reps until Pruitt decided on into the season to start having those Sunday evening scrimmages....Bailey started getting some playing snaps after that and was the starter the last 3 games of the season.....Hooker is a 5 year player...Milton is a 4th year player....They should be ahead of Bailey.

 

[golfballs]

Are you a good play caller if you call plays that your players can’t execute?

 

[chuck0303]

Milton's uncanny ability to not just miss, but badly miss, guys running free - even when the protection has been good - is mystifying. Hence the obsession with every other QB. It is pure malfeasance that our roster is this decimated. Cornbread Beldar and his merry band of cheaters can take a long walk off a short pier.

I'm concerned now that when Milton plays the Florida defense will play long and pick off the overthrows. Until proven otherwise, Florida's D should give TN receivers plenty of room & wait for the INTs. If we hit the short passes then they mostly likely would come up. However, I imagine they will just play our receivers tight & maybe get the INTs anyway. I sure hope I'm wrong.

 

[chattavol420]

Op seems to totally contradict himself. You go on and on about how bizarre it is that fans want to see Bailey then move on and talk about how neither Milton or hooker can throw the deep ball worth a damn. Can you really not connect those dots man? Bailey threw the best deep pass of anyone this entire year on his first pass attemp Saturday.
Then you go on to say a good qb coach can make an awful qb great but don’t want to see Bailey because he’s awful?
Fans want to see Bailey because of how awful the other have been at passing the ball. And it’s more than just that. Bailey is a lifelong tn fan that was maybe the top pro style qb in the country. He came here out of high school and stayed after the coaching change. Milton lost his job to a freshman because he was “awful” at Michigan (kept overthrowing open guys and was slow with his reads…imagine that) so he transferred here.
Ad for the arm chair qb stuff…you probably said the same thing when we were criticizing Pruitt even after he’s say things like “we done good out there they just done more plays than we done made”. You are the type that probably criticized fans when we wanted to see more kamara Amd less Hurd because it was obvious to any ole “arm chair qb” that he was better suited for the offense.
Most die hard college football fans played football for years growing up and have watched thousands of hours of games. The idea that we are incapable of making intelligent observations is a joke.I’m not going to act as though I know things about recruiting or practice scheduling etc. But you don’t have to have coached to make observations such as what personnel grouping is capable of doing what. Bailey would likely be better at hitting down the field targets accurately but heupel has chosen to prioritize running ability over accurate passing.

 

[jarnol32]

Hooker has a ceiling of a 6.5/10 and plays at a 6/10 most of the time. Milton has a ceiling if a 9/10 and plays at a 5/10 most of the time. So, it makes sense trying to play Milton because of his upside, but eventually potential has to be met or you need to find someone else with potential.
Bailey looks terrible. I was afraid he wasn't as good as advertised. A lot of these Qbs with vastly superior teams look better in HS than they should. I swear I would rather take a lesser rated player that outplays their HS team than these guys who are surrounded by other All-Americans and look better than they really are.

Kind of sounds like you are describing what Brian Maurer did in high school.

 

[volfan2024]

I think you could toss a coin between the two.

 

[njvols]

Oh man Donna frusothe heck outta me!! I cussed him then praised him all in the same play many times in his tenure here but looking back I wish I had him bk now! Haha. Being a die hard fan is hard. All you guys know!! It’s amazing how crazy the love and passion for our team makes us sometimes!

No doubt! I think if we can get it right w/ JH, some things are set up for him to be here for awhile...if he proves he's got the chops. No apparent big personality disorders compared to predecessors...Layne (early years/ disdain for following rules...I'd take present day Layne in a heartbeat), Dools (arrogant/didn't like to work particularly hard/covered for it by being amusing in pressers), Butch (good guy, but not smart/figured he'd cliché' you to "believe" + not supported by utad w/ $$$ for assts), Pruitt (good DC...in WAY over his head as HC/arrogant/McD's $$$). JH really needs to build some momentum by winning one or two he's not supposed to this year so he can recruit towards progress. I think AD is lined up in sync w/ JH and think if he gets time, he's got a chance...

I'd pay good money to get back to 5 year runs of full seasons that we fired Majors/Fulmer for...10/2/1, 5/6, 11/1, 9/2/2, 9/3...and Fulmer: 10/3, 5/6, 9/4, 10/4, 5/7.

 

[Gilb69]

Just a collection of my observations on the season so far, 25% through it.

-Obviously, the biggest topic of discussion has been the QB position. The obsession by some of our fans with Bailey is weird. Bizarre. He's not even the backup. He's 3rd string. He hasn't shown anything to make us think he's a savior. He came in at garbage time of some games last year and completed a bunch of 3 yard outlet passes to RBs. I really don't get it. Yes, he was highly rated as a recruit, but that doesn't seem to matter as it pertains to Milton, does it? Furthermore, Heupel has been a GREAT developer of QBs. He knows the position as well as anyone in America. And he knows who is best in HIS offense better than anyone. Nonetheless, we have a bunch of armchair QBs who think Heupel doesn't know what he's doing in not starting Bailey because...hell, I don't know why. They've just decided that based on what they want their reality to be, I guess.

But yesterday, it was obvious why Bailey is 3rd string. He doesn't throw outs with nearly the zip of the other two. He's slow to process. His release is slow. He doesn't look confident. And he's obviously not at athletic. He was 3 for 7 against the Tech scrubs. So...let's drop the Bailey talk and move on to the two QBs who are in actual consideration to start:

Hooker has looked better than Milton at this point. That's obvious. A few of his runs have reminded me of Dobbs. And he has a strong arm, though not as strong as Milton's (who does?). I think Hooker is a solid SEC starting QB who could be pretty good, but not great. A pretty good QB with this surrounding cast won't take us far, but might get us to 6 wins. Maybe 7.

Milton's struggles on the deep ball have been well-documented. What's most maddening is that he's overthrowing these guys when he could just err on the side of under-throwing to give his man a chance to catch it or get a PI call. Of greater concern to me has been his tendency to hold the ball and not spot open WRs. He does hit the outs with precision (and has more than enough arm to get it there quickly). All things considered with Milton, he's not as good as Hooker at this point.

That said, I think there is a decent chance that Milton starts next week. And here's why: our coach (who, again, has forgotten more about coaching the QB position than any of us know) sees upside in this kid that he believes he can help him reach. And that upside is high enough that, if reached by a QB, will help Tennessee win faster (as in Year 2 or 3) than going with a guy who is just "good." A great QB can compensate for a ton of other deficiencies. If Heupel thinks he can get Milton to "special," he might go with him over a guy who is better right now. Remember...this isn't about this season. It's about building this program back to what it once was. Maybe going with Milton means Tennessee only wins 5 games this year (instead of 6 or 7), but wins 8 or 9 next year (instead of 6 or 7). And the faster Tennessee can get to an 8 or 9 win season, the faster recruiting becomes easier and success starts to snowball.

I've seen enough college QBs who looked awful turn into fantastic QBs by coaches who knew how to develop them and be patient with them (Crompton by Kiffin, Ainge by Cutcliffe, Brady Quinn by Weis). Also remember....Milton is the only one of the QBs who wasn't in Knoxville for Spring practice. He's very inexperienced in this offense. As his knowledge and comfort level with the offense grows, he'll process faster, and, I'm guessing, make better, more confident throws. I'll trust Heupel on this one.

-I've seen some of our fans criticize playcalling. That's absurd. Heupel might be the best play-caller I've seen at Tennessee. He's had WRs running wide open in all 3 games. His QBs haven't been hitting (or seeing) them and his WRs haven't been catching them and his OLine hasn't always protected, but he's calling plays to get them open time after time. At one point in the Pitt game, one of the announcers said Heupel was putting on a "playcalling clinic." He was. He's elite. One thing I love about him as a playcaller is that, when he spots a weakness, he keeps going at it, even if it doesn't work the first time. Case in point: Payton had a drop on a deep ball on the first possession yesterday. But it was obvious that that play was there anytime if we just executed it. So he called it again. Overthrow. The third time, it was a TD. The opponent didn't (couldn't) stop it. So keep calling it. Kiffin does that. Spurrier did that. It works. And it sends a message to both your team and your opponent. That's one example, but I've seen it all year.

-In the past 3 years, we went into games wondering if this team would score 20 points. This team has averaged 43 ppg. That's without executing very well. I know the schedule is about to get tougher, but there's no question this offensive staff is light years ahead of the last one (or the one before that, given the relative talent they're working with).

-I like the effort of this team. They seem to play hard for this staff. I've been pleasantly surprised by the defense. They swarm to the ball. The DLine has been solid against the run. The secondary is vastly improved. Special teams have also been special. These are all things this staff has improved.

-We're using the TEs! Warren and Fant (especially Warren) have been very good in the passing game. In future years, Miles Campbell, Julian Nixon, and Trinity Bell will be weapons.

-My biggest concerns: we're shooting ourselves in the foot way too often. Dumb (and numerous) penalties cost us the Pitt game. Dropped balls by the WRs. The DLine has been pretty good against the run, but the pass rush is bad. Lack of takeaways (0 before yesterday). QB's are not seeing open WRs or not hitting them. And the OLine is just not there. Put simply: the execution has been lacking. I understand that we have a new staff, new systems, and a completely turned over roster, so there's no reason to think this team SHOULD be executing at a high level right now or that it won't improve as the year goes on, systems are learned, and players gel. But I don't know that the Oline is going to get much better. Or the pass rush. They may be what they are and that concerns me. I really hope OLine is an area of focus for improvement next year. Crawford, Perry, Spraggins, Robinson, and Lampley really need to get better by next year. Might need to get a good transfer in the portal who can plug and play.

-The stretch we have coming up will be telling. Tennessee won't beat Florida, but if we can avoid a blowout, that would be nice. But we should beat South Carolina. Missouri is beatable, maybe even a tossup. If Tennessee wins those two, 6 wins is probably in the bag. And after Kentucky had to recover an onside to beat Chattanooga by 5, they're suddenly looking beatable on 11/6. Maybe Milton is rolling by then? Remember, Jon Crompton was horrible for 4 games in 2009, then it clicked and he became the 2nd best QB in the SEC. Can Milton do the same? Does Heupel believe he can? Regardless, if Tennessee goes 2-1 in the next 3, we should be very happy. If that stretch also includes Milton turning the corner, we should be over the moon.

Overall, I've seen plenty in 3 games that needs to be cleaned up, but plenty to give me hope for the future. Anyone who expected this team to come out and be "good" in the first 3 games was delusional. Chicken little fans who are already calling this staff a failure simply don't understand how program-building works. I am looking for a team that gets better as the year goes on. Every problem won't be fixed. Tennessee may not have a winning season. And we won't know for 3-4 years if this was a good hire. But I see some reasons to think it was.

Well said, whole heartily agree!

 

[njvols]

You shouldn't judge Bailey based off of a clean up stint with mostly 3rd string talent around him. I have said it before, when we made our coaching hire decision our offensive philosophy was decided and the type of quarterback we would be playing and recruiting was decided. We are now committed to his fast moving, simplistic, highschoolish offensive scheme. Talented prostyle quarterbacks need not apply.

Not sure if JH scheme is long term sustainable, but right now we aren't built to line up and just "out talent" really any SEC team this year except Vandy... Drew Locke seemed to do fine w/ the scheme. We haven't had a QB step up and take the job and do it at a high level since Dobbs...they've all been QB's we try to rationalize to being "the guy". During the summer, I thought for sure HB would be the guy. Whether it's mop up duty or not, you gotta put a performance on film that forces coaches to get you in the game.

 

[ThreatLevelOrange]

One other point as it pertains to playing Milton right now…he’s a RSSoph. Hooker is a Senior. So if you play Hooker all year, you’re starting over at QB next year with Milton or Bailey. But if you ride out the rough spots with Milton this year, you have an experienced QB next year who has developed (assuming Heupel believes he will…and I have to think he does).

Hooker has 1 more year after this year.

 

[NighthawkVol]

Hooker has 1 more year after this year.

The roster on UT sports lists him as a RS Sr. Is that an error?

 

[jim pique]

Orangebeachvol,No,staying at a Marriott only meant you paid more.for.the room.

 

[Mose Phillip's Watch]

Chaney wasn’t enamored with him either. They went all in for Haynes King even after Bailey committed.

They wanted HBs teammate more than HB. Teammate went to clempson

 

[Other_Guy]

Let's wait until Heupel coaches against at least 1 SEC team before we crown his best play caller ever.

 

[spencer1989]

Nice.

I just wanted to see Bailey play but after yesterday I think he’s actually regressed so now we can move on from that experiment. He will never play in a meaningful game in this offense. The best thing for him is to transfer.

DL / OL aren’t quick fixes. The lack of legitimate coaching on the lines over the past 3 years is killing us.

IF I were Bailey, I would hit the portal after this past weekend. There was zero reasons for not putting him in the game earlier.

 

[BigALWiLson]

Guys, most of you talking about HB like no one wants him lol. SEC teams came after Bailey hard. He is young, he basically is a freshman with litte practice time under the last staff. Now he is basically starting all over learning a new scheme. If he sticks around, he has the tools to succeed. He needs to develope. Young at Bama didn't look like he does now either at this time last year. He got experience, playing with much more talented guys and different stratosphere of coaching at Bama. HB will get there and I think Heupel is molding him to get the best out of him long term. One thing is for certain our wides have to catch the damn ball. I'm starting to wonder if we need the bring back Trooper crowd fired up. Lol

 

[calban]

Nice.

I just wanted to see Bailey play but after yesterday I think he’s actually regressed so now we can move on from that experiment. He will never play in a meaningful game in this offense. The best thing for him is to transfer.

DL / OL aren’t quick fixes. The lack of legitimate coaching on the lines over the past 3 years is killing us.

WTF. Rodney G is one of the best in the business. wait til he gets his own guys.

 

[loosecannon]

Kind of sounds like you are describing what Brian Maurer did in high school.

I liked Mauer. I though that he had a lot of toughness and competitiveness. He was a bit too risky with the ball and played way before he should have. These kids need to develop, and rushing them in early isn't doing us any favors.

 

[loosecannon]

WTF. Rodney G is one of the best in the business. wait til he gets his own guys.

I thought he meant before this year with his quote.

 

[calban]

I thought he meant before this year with his quote.

If so, that would be true.

 

[BigALWiLson]

WTF. Rodney G is one of the best in the business. wait til he gets his own guys.

Huh he is talking about a qb

 

[calban]

Huh he is talking about a qb

DL / OL aren’t quick fixes. The lack of legitimate coaching on the lines over the past 3 years is killing us. ??

 

[b_gann]

Just a collection of my observations on the season so far, 25% through it.

-Obviously, the biggest topic of discussion has been the QB position. The obsession by some of our fans with Bailey is weird. Bizarre. He's not even the backup. He's 3rd string. He hasn't shown anything to make us think he's a savior. He came in at garbage time of some games last year and completed a bunch of 3 yard outlet passes to RBs. I really don't get it. Yes, he was highly rated as a recruit, but that doesn't seem to matter as it pertains to Milton, does it? Furthermore, Heupel has been a GREAT developer of QBs. He knows the position as well as anyone in America. And he knows who is best in HIS offense better than anyone. Nonetheless, we have a bunch of armchair QBs who think Heupel doesn't know what he's doing in not starting Bailey because...hell, I don't know why. They've just decided that based on what they want their reality to be, I guess.

But yesterday, it was obvious why Bailey is 3rd string. He doesn't throw outs with nearly the zip of the other two. He's slow to process. His release is slow. He doesn't look confident. And he's obviously not at athletic. He was 3 for 7 against the Tech scrubs. So...let's drop the Bailey talk and move on to the two QBs who are in actual consideration to start:

Hooker has looked better than Milton at this point. That's obvious. A few of his runs have reminded me of Dobbs. And he has a strong arm, though not as strong as Milton's (who does?). I think Hooker is a solid SEC starting QB who could be pretty good, but not great. A pretty good QB with this surrounding cast won't take us far, but might get us to 6 wins. Maybe 7.

Milton's struggles on the deep ball have been well-documented. What's most maddening is that he's overthrowing these guys when he could just err on the side of under-throwing to give his man a chance to catch it or get a PI call. Of greater concern to me has been his tendency to hold the ball and not spot open WRs. He does hit the outs with precision (and has more than enough arm to get it there quickly). All things considered with Milton, he's not as good as Hooker at this point.

That said, I think there is a decent chance that Milton starts next week. And here's why: our coach (who, again, has forgotten more about coaching the QB position than any of us know) sees upside in this kid that he believes he can help him reach. And that upside is high enough that, if reached by a QB, will help Tennessee win faster (as in Year 2 or 3) than going with a guy who is just "good." A great QB can compensate for a ton of other deficiencies. If Heupel thinks he can get Milton to "special," he might go with him over a guy who is better right now. Remember...this isn't about this season. It's about building this program back to what it once was. Maybe going with Milton means Tennessee only wins 5 games this year (instead of 6 or 7), but wins 8 or 9 next year (instead of 6 or 7). And the faster Tennessee can get to an 8 or 9 win season, the faster recruiting becomes easier and success starts to snowball.

I've seen enough college QBs who looked awful turn into fantastic QBs by coaches who knew how to develop them and be patient with them (Crompton by Kiffin, Ainge by Cutcliffe, Brady Quinn by Weis). Also remember....Milton is the only one of the QBs who wasn't in Knoxville for Spring practice. He's very inexperienced in this offense. As his knowledge and comfort level with the offense grows, he'll process faster, and, I'm guessing, make better, more confident throws. I'll trust Heupel on this one.

-I've seen some of our fans criticize playcalling. That's absurd. Heupel might be the best play-caller I've seen at Tennessee. He's had WRs running wide open in all 3 games. His QBs haven't been hitting (or seeing) them and his WRs haven't been catching them and his OLine hasn't always protected, but he's calling plays to get them open time after time. At one point in the Pitt game, one of the announcers said Heupel was putting on a "playcalling clinic." He was. He's elite. One thing I love about him as a playcaller is that, when he spots a weakness, he keeps going at it, even if it doesn't work the first time. Case in point: Payton had a drop on a deep ball on the first possession yesterday. But it was obvious that that play was there anytime if we just executed it. So he called it again. Overthrow. The third time, it was a TD. The opponent didn't (couldn't) stop it. So keep calling it. Kiffin does that. Spurrier did that. It works. And it sends a message to both your team and your opponent. That's one example, but I've seen it all year.

-In the past 3 years, we went into games wondering if this team would score 20 points. This team has averaged 43 ppg. That's without executing very well. I know the schedule is about to get tougher, but there's no question this offensive staff is light years ahead of the last one (or the one before that, given the relative talent they're working with).

-I like the effort of this team. They seem to play hard for this staff. I've been pleasantly surprised by the defense. They swarm to the ball. The DLine has been solid against the run. The secondary is vastly improved. Special teams have also been special. These are all things this staff has improved.

-We're using the TEs! Warren and Fant (especially Warren) have been very good in the passing game. In future years, Miles Campbell, Julian Nixon, and Trinity Bell will be weapons.

-My biggest concerns: we're shooting ourselves in the foot way too often. Dumb (and numerous) penalties cost us the Pitt game. Dropped balls by the WRs. The DLine has been pretty good against the run, but the pass rush is bad. Lack of takeaways (0 before yesterday). QB's are not seeing open WRs or not hitting them. And the OLine is just not there. Put simply: the execution has been lacking. I understand that we have a new staff, new systems, and a completely turned over roster, so there's no reason to think this team SHOULD be executing at a high level right now or that it won't improve as the year goes on, systems are learned, and players gel. But I don't know that the Oline is going to get much better. Or the pass rush. They may be what they are and that concerns me. I really hope OLine is an area of focus for improvement next year. Crawford, Perry, Spraggins, Robinson, and Lampley really need to get better by next year. Might need to get a good transfer in the portal who can plug and play.

-The stretch we have coming up will be telling. Tennessee won't beat Florida, but if we can avoid a blowout, that would be nice. But we should beat South Carolina. Missouri is beatable, maybe even a tossup. If Tennessee wins those two, 6 wins is probably in the bag. And after Kentucky had to recover an onside to beat Chattanooga by 5, they're suddenly looking beatable on 11/6. Maybe Milton is rolling by then? Remember, Jon Crompton was horrible for 4 games in 2009, then it clicked and he became the 2nd best QB in the SEC. Can Milton do the same? Does Heupel believe he can? Regardless, if Tennessee goes 2-1 in the next 3, we should be very happy. If that stretch also includes Milton turning the corner, we should be over the moon.

Overall, I've seen plenty in 3 games that needs to be cleaned up, but plenty to give me hope for the future. Anyone who expected this team to come out and be "good" in the first 3 games was delusional. Chicken little fans who are already calling this staff a failure simply don't understand how program-building works. I am looking for a team that gets better as the year goes on. Every problem won't be fixed. Tennessee may not have a winning season. And we won't know for 3-4 years if this was a good hire. But I see some reasons to think it was.

I agree with most of your points here. Some of my early thoughts:

I get why they want Milton. He has high-end potential. I think the long ball issue will stay though. It was an issue at Michigan too apparently. He makes some incredible throws, but if you can't hit wide open guys, you're hurting the team. I'd prefer Hooker. Worst case, he can run for 50 yards, and with this line, we'll need it.

We seem better coached for the most part. I've been impressed with the D. We have a few issues, but that seems to be more talent than coaching. We're in the right spots usually and tackling well. We just have no pass rush, which greatly limits a defense.

Agree with you on the penalties. That's really my only coaching knock right now. It was an issue last year too from what I remember.

I think we'll need another year of a strong transfer class. We badly need bodies ready to go on the OL, DL, LB, and DB next year. It'll take a few years to get this thing back on track.

If we can get to 6-6 somehow this year, I think Heupel has a chance to be solid here. I could see 8-4 to 9=3 type years if he had the bodies.

 

[CINCYVOL]

You shouldn't judge Bailey based off of a clean up stint with mostly 3rd string talent around him. I have said it before, when we made our coaching hire decision our offensive philosophy was decided and the type of quarterback we would be playing and recruiting was decided. We are now committed to his fast moving, simplistic, highschoolish offensive scheme. Talented prostyle quarterbacks need not apply.

News flash….Bailey isn’t a talented pro style QB.

 

[1allvol]

I'm not football intelligent enough, and neither are most of you, to make the call on who should be starting QB. Even if i had the knowledge, i don't have the insight that the coaches do. They see these guys everyday, we see them once a week. I also think it's possible that JG was the best option that Pruitt had...agree or disagree, it doesn't really matter, but one thing that we can all agree on is that right now, we don't have a QB that is good enough to make up for lack of talent everywhere else.