our defense is garbage. Let’s worry about Arkansas
I wouldn't use the word "garbage", but I would agree with "suspect".
Nitpicking the stats so far, against decent teams where we can compare the UT defense against what other defenses did against our opponents...and bearing in mind that at the end of the day, it's the points that matter...
UT averaged 39 PPG in regulation against Syracuse, UGA, and Mississippi State. Against those same 3, the UT defense gave up an average of 32.7 PPG. So roughly a 6 PPG advantage. What with those 3 games being at a neutral site; at home; and away, they stand (I think) as a good measure of what UT can be expected to score against a decent P4 opponent. Notice I did not say "SEC opponent".
Then we have to recognize the fact that the UT defense has been opportunistic. I tried to find the individual game numbers on INT's; Fumble recoveries; Sacks; and TFL's for the 3 games I used as a reference...and gave up. Too much work. But it's clear that the UT defense runs hot and cold, and carried the day against Mississippi State. All that being said...
I don't trust this defense in its' current state against any SEC opponent on the road. And I worry about it at home against the likes of Oklahoma, even Vandy, and maybe even Arkansas. I do expect the Vols to win at least 2 of those 3, so...
Then it's on the road against Bama, UK, and UF. Two of those 3 would be huge. Again, JMO. But I don't trust this defense on the road, against a quality SEC opponent. And two of those three fit the bill.
So, if the defense doesn't improve I'm thinking 8-4 or 9-3. It is what it is.
But if the defense finds a way to play better, then this is a playoff-caliber offense.