This offense can’t win on 3rd and long

#26
#26
I don’t recall saying this offense wasn’t suited for 3rd and long.
No offense is really designed for it actually.
I definitely don’t remember asking for proof of such.

I’m not saying I didn’t, I say a lot of things, maybe I don’t recall….
You are usually FOS and honestly not very intelligent. Before I conclude that this is just more of you being you, could you provide proof of this “request”. You know, maybe a quote.


Edit: I am absolutely a truth in numbers guy though.
And I am relentless. I will be beating this dead horse till the proof of premise of this thread is proven or provided
 
#28
#28
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
I believe he backed up the claim that the offense struggled on 3rd and long last year and this year.

Responses were "why bring this up" or "but we won" or whatever which is entirely missing the point of specifically looking at 3rd and long.

Heupel, when he first spoke about his tempo offense, said there would be times when you'd miss a pass or run short and that 3 & out's were going to happen. He was right. We've seen more procedure calls, which Heupel also said early on were not good for the offense because they turn short yardage into longer yardage.

What's interesting is that the offense last year, which was extremely explosive and efficient, was not any better than this year's MUCH less explosive and efficient offense on 3rd & longer.

We could get yards last year running and passing on the early downs but not on 3rd as well. Improving that seems to be on Heupel, not the players, is what I take from that.

Basically, as BVol said: this offense doesn't do well on 3rd & long and didn't last year either.
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Every offense in the country, both college and the NFL struggles on 3rd and long
 
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#29
#29
BruisedOrange said:
Always appreciate data, especially when another fan initiates it. Thanks for your time and effort, BruinVol!

I'm sure this will generate follow up questions and challenges about which data are most pertinent. But like iron sharpens iron, hang in there with it and benefit from it.
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maybe you have the proof to support this call out thread.
 
#31
#31
Maybe our 3rd and Long was down because of how much the 2nd string quarterback played due to the blowouts?
 
#32
#32
BruinVol said:
This thread is dedicated to @Orangeslice13 who ask for proof that this offense wasn’t suited for 3rd and long.


Well I went back and looked at every single game from 2022 and compared it to our 13 opponents… I really woud really have thought the #1 offense in the country would have been better than it’s opponents… well it wasn’t..


Last year(2012 the great banner year) facing 3rd and 6 or longer the Vols were 28.9% and our Opponents were 30.4%



It’s clear to me (and yea the numbers show it) that this offense wasn’t built to convert 3rd and longs.


And yea I used all 13 opponents with those stats
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I think one thing you’re not taking into account is that CJH uses all 4 downs more than just about any coach in FBS. When he finds himself in 3rd and long, he calls plays that will get the team at least to 4th and short. If we convert, then great, but it’s not the priority that it is for a lot of other teams. What are the 4th down numbers this year? They have to be terrible, especially 4th and short. I bet he’s more worried about fixing that then “fixing” third and long problems.
 
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#33
#33
Smokefatty said:
I think one thing you’re not taking into account is that CJH uses all 4 downs more than just about any coach in FBS. When he finds himself in 3rd and long, he calls plays that will get the team at least to 4th and short. If we convert, then great, but it’s not the priority that it is for a lot of other teams. What are the 4th down numbers this year? They have to be terrible, especially 4th and short. I bet he’s more worried about fixing that then “fixing” third and long problems.
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Stop blowing up the context of his proof.
He hates when you do that and will start a thread to argue against things you never said.
 
#34
#34
It does seem in the past few years that our opponents have converted the 3rd and 9s, 3rd and 12s on us at a frustrating rate and that we struggle with 3rd and 2s. I know that’s my orange bias though.

I think Peyton Manning said it best when he said An offense is really clicking when you avoid 3rd downs altogether. The best strategy is 1st down 2nd down, 1st down and keep rolling like that.
 
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#35
#35
To put this into perspective, lets look at 3rd down conversion rate. Last year the vols were converting 3rd downs 36.99% of the time. This year the Vols have improved to 44.29% and are ranked 26th in the nation in that stat. UGA leads the nation at 58.06% and then LSU at 53.06%. The large gap between LSU and UGA isn't repeated as the numbers gradually fall off from LSU.

I find these stats VERY encouraging for our team. To begin with, I don't think anyone will argue about how the talent level of our offense was dramatically superior in 2022 compared to 2023. This coaching staff is able to improve a critical part of the game with less.

UGA is just damn good. This shows the pay off of consistency in coaching and recruiting at a high level. We are on that same path. We are missing a whole recruiting class of players on this team for goodness sakes. I see this as a big sign things are looking up.
 
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#36
#36
Tman44 said:
To put this into perspective, lets look at 3rd down conversion rate. Last year the vols were converting 3rd downs 36.99% of the time. This year the Vols have improved to 44.29% and are ranked 26th in the nation in that stat. UGA leads the nation at 58.06% and then LSU at 53.06%. The large gap between LSU and UGA isn't repeated as the numbers gradually fall off from LSU.

I find these stats VERY encouraging for our team. To begin with, I don't think anyone will argue about how the talent level of our offense was dramatically superior in 2022 compared to 2023. This coaching staff is able to improve a critical part of the game with less.

UGA is just damn good. This shows the pay off of consistency in coaching and recruiting at a high level. We are on that same path. We are missing a whole recruiting class of players on this team for goodness sakes. I see this as a big sign things are looking up.
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Recruiting and utilizing a really good TE would do wonders for our 3rd down conversion percentage IMO.
 
#37
#37
I don’t care enough to go research it but it would be interesting to see how many times the 2022 team vs the 2023 team was in 3 and more than 6 yards. Obviously the more times you are in that down and distance the more chances you have at being unsuccessful.

I also think a better stat to review is average yards per play on first down. The more efficient you are on first down plays a big part on third down.
 
#41
#41
BernardKingGOAT said:
Every offense in the country, both college and the NFL struggles on 3rd and long
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But, as we saw in the game threads, 3rd & Banks seemed easier. Whether that's true statistically or not, we seemed pretty soft this year.

I think most of us would've "knee jerk" said last year's 3rd and long offense converted at a higher percentage than this year, but it seems not to be true.

Given last year's talent and efficiency vs this year, I think we should've converted better than this year. Maybe you don't and that's fine.

And I don't think for a single second that Josh Heupel and Co aren't VERY aware of the 3rd down efficiency this year and last year. It points to two things: obviously, try to stay out of 3rd and long AND maybe utilize the offense differently and more efficiently in those situations.

This isn't a "Josh sucks" situation. It's more of a "why the heck couldn't the #1 offense in the country convert better on 3rd and long than the offense we've seen this year?" situation.

That's a coaching/play calling issue, isn't it?
 
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#42
#42
What an absolutely silly idea for a post.

The offense led the nation in points!

BUT THEY’RE NOT GOOD ON 3RD DOWN!!!
 
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#43
#43
BruinVol said:
And this will shock people as well. This years offense is better on 3rd down than last years… seems crazy doesn’t it



College Football Stats - College FB Team Third Down Conversion Percentage | TeamRankings.com

College Football third down conversion percentage, by team.
www.teamrankings.com www.teamrankings.com
Click to expand...

Last year's offense was a quick strike offense that didn't face a lot of 3rd downs for the most part. When that offense was on, it was a lot of 3-4 play drives - instant offense, so to speak. This is more of a grind it out offense, and probably faced a lot more 3rd downs, where the killer run game came into play.

My main concern is the 3rd down defense. Hoping that as the talent is upgraded, especially in the secondary, we'll be able to bring pressure and allow the corners to play more press coverage. That's how you get off the field on 3rd down.
 
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#44
#44
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
But, as we saw in the game threads, 3rd & Banks seemed easier. Whether that's true statistically or not, we seemed pretty soft this year.

I think most of us would've "knee jerk" said last year's 3rd and long offense converted at a higher percentage than this year, but it seems not to be true.

Given last year's talent and efficiency vs this year, I think we should've converted better than this year. Maybe you don't and that's fine.

And I don't think for a single second that Josh Heupel and Co aren't VERY aware of the 3rd down efficiency this year and last year. It points to two things: obviously, try to stay out of 3rd and long AND maybe utilize the offense differently and more efficiently in those situations.

This isn't a "Josh sucks" situation. It's more of a "why the heck couldn't the #1 offense in the country convert better on 3rd and long than the offense we've seen this year?" situation.

That's a coaching/play calling issue, isn't it?
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No. There aren't too many plays in any team's arsenal for 3rd and long. The best offensive minds in the game have gone on record saying they do their best to avoid 3rd down
 
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#45
#45
All I can say is I'm actually glad the season is almost over. I'm so ready to turn the page on Milton and the 2023 Vols.
 
#46
#46
volfan411 said:
What your stats seem to prove is every offense is flawed when it comes to down and distance.
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The fact that the 3rd & 6+ conversion % is higher with this year's rather lackluster offense as opposed to last year's very explosive, fast, and powerful offense should at least raise an eyebrow.

Would you have thought that? Would you have thought that Milton and Co could extend drives on 3rd & 6+ at a higher rate than Hooker and Co?

Sure, there's lots of variables (and I trust the staff will try to normalize the data,) but it's still an interesting stat that I bet few expected.
 
#47
#47
BernardKingGOAT said:
No. There aren't too many plays in any team's arsenal for 3rd and long. The best offensive minds in the game have gone on record saying they do their best to avoid 3rd down
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Right. No argument. But you will get some 3rd & 6+ situations. 3rd down is hard but........

You don't find it interesting that Milton and the 2023 Vols, seemingly and statistically much less explosive and successful on offense than the 2022 Vols, converted at a similar, actually a little better rate?

Are you telling me that's what you would've expected to come from the data?
 
#48
#48
Orangeslice13 said:
I don’t recall saying this offense wasn’t suited for 3rd and long.
No offense is really designed for it actually.
I definitely don’t remember asking for proof of such.

I’m not saying I didn’t, I say a lot of things, maybe I don’t recall….
You are usually FOS and honestly not very intelligent. Before I conclude that this is just more of you being you, could you provide proof of this “request”. You know, maybe a quote.


Edit: I am absolutely a truth in numbers guy though.
And I am relentless. I will be beating this dead horse till the proof of premise of this thread is proven or provided
Click to expand...


I’d like to apologize to you. You have been wrongly accused. I will edit the op
 
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#49
#49
FLVOL_79 said:
How often did UT NEED to convert 3rd and longs? That would be a good stat to have
Click to expand...


Comparing the two years is very interesting for a numbers nerd like myself.

Last year we had exactly the same 3rd and longs as we have had this year. Of course there are two games left so there will be more. We are worse at 3rd and long this year but only slightly as we have 4 less conversions. Defensively 3rd and long we are worse than 2022. (30.4%/32%). So both years our opponents were better than us on 3rd and long



One more glaring stat that honestly shocked me. I was shocked we are so good comparing to our opponents. And I was equally shocked this years team isn’t that much worse than last year years



Stat:
How often does the offense convert 1st downs after being behind the sticks… 2nd 8 or longer…


Vols
2022- 57.8%
2023- 56.6%


Opponents
2022-41.9%
2023- 44%
 
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