This offense can’t win on 3rd and long

#1
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BruinVol

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#1
This thread is dedicated to @Vol8188 who ask for proof that this offense wasn’t suited for 3rd and long.


Well I went back and looked at every single game from 2022 and compared it to our 13 opponents… I really woud really have thought the #1 offense in the country would have been better than it’s opponents… well it wasn’t..


Last year(2012 the great banner year) facing 3rd and 6 or longer the Vols were 28.9% and our Opponents were 30.4%



It’s clear to me (and yea the numbers show it) that this offense wasn’t built to convert 3rd and longs.


And yea I used all 13 opponents with those stats
 
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#2
#2
Always appreciate data, especially when another fan initiates it. Thanks for your time and effort, BruinVol!

I'm sure this will generate follow up questions and challenges about which data are most pertinent. But like iron sharpens iron, hang in there with it and benefit from it.
 
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#7
#7
volfan_28 said:
Which is a good thing, right? You seem to be using the fact that we were #1 as an argument against our offense.
Click to expand...
Remember I added a link that showed this years offense was better on 3rd down than last ..

Seeems crazy but it’s true
 
#8
#8
83rd in the land with Hooker as the QB on 3rd down conversions …


26th under Milton


The offense is flawed as it just can’t overcome down and distance
 
#10
#10
BruinVol said:
Remember I added a link that showed this years offense was better on 3rd down than last ..

Seeems crazy but it’s true
Click to expand...
I guess I just don’t understand your purpose with this topic, but I do appreciate you bringing stats. We had the #1 offense. Why look further than that to find something to complain about? Maybe our conversation rate was down because we were taking shots at the end zone instead of just trying to move the sticks. I’m not saying that’s the case but maybe it was. Whatever the case, we had the #1 offense so whatever we were doing to sacrifice 3rd down conversions was apparently a good idea.
 
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#11
#11
BruinVol said:
Remember I added a link that showed this years offense was better on 3rd down than last ..

Seeems crazy but it’s true
Click to expand...
volfan_28 said:
28.9% vs 30.4%?

Not exactly a world of difference.
Click to expand...
Because we were crazy good on 1st and 2nd down last year. I haven’t looked at the numbers, but with more explosive plays and better production on 1st and 2nd, we probably had way fewer 3rd down plays last year. Just guessing here.
 
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#14
#14
volfan_28 said:
I guess I just don’t understand your purpose with this topic, but I do appreciate you bringing stats. We had the #1 offense. Why look further than that to find something to complain about? Maybe our conversation rate was down because we were taking shots at the end zone instead of just trying to move the sticks. I’m not saying that’s the case but maybe it was. Whatever the case, we had the #1 offense so whatever we were doing to sacrifice 3rd down conversions was apparently a good idea.
Click to expand...


I get it. This thread is more in response to another thread where i suggest this offense can’t overcome 3rd and long


It’s crazy to me that in a banner year a year ago where we went 10-2 we still weren’t better than our opponents in that areas



As we watch tomorrow.. it seems crazy but I’d Bet vandy is better than us on 3rd and long tomorrow than we are. Let’s follow it
 
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#16
#16
BruinVol said:
I get it. This thread is more in response to another thread where i suggest this offense can’t overcome 3rd and long


It’s crazy to me that in a banner year a year ago where we went 10-2 we still weren’t better than our opponents in that areas



As we watch tomorrow.. it seems crazy but I’d Bet vandy is better than us on 3rd and long tomorrow than we are. Let’s follow it
Click to expand...
It may be something we can improve upon. I’m sure it is. But to say a #1 offense is flawed because the 3rd down conversion rate doesn’t measure up well against our competitors is a little crazy. But I’ll pay attention to it
 
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#17
#17
volfan_28 said:
It may be something we can improve upon. I’m sure it is. But to say a #1 offense is flawed because the 3rd down conversion rate doesn’t measure up well against our competitors is a little crazy. But I’ll pay attention to it
Click to expand...


I just think the routes are all on the LOS or deep. There simply is no in between
 
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#19
#19
BruinVol said:
This thread is dedicated to @Orangeslice13 who ask for proof that this offense wasn’t suited for 3rd and long.


Well I went back and looked at every single game from 2022 and compared it to our 13 opponents… I really woud really have thought the #1 offense in the country would have been better than it’s opponents… well it wasn’t..


Last year(2012 the great banner year) facing 3rd and 6 or longer the Vols were 28.9% and our Opponents were 30.4%



It’s clear to me (and yea the numbers show it) that this offense wasn’t built to convert 3rd and longs.


And yea I used all 13 opponents with those stats
Click to expand...
No offense is built for 3rd and long
 
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#20
#20
volfan_28 said:
It may be something we can improve upon. I’m sure it is. But to say a #1 offense is flawed because the 3rd down conversion rate doesn’t measure up well against our competitors is a little crazy. But I’ll pay attention to it
Click to expand...
I think the thing to take from this is: imagine how good the offense could be this year with better success on 3rd down, but also think about how unstoppable we'd have been last year if we'd converted more 3rd downs.

It's data I feel pretty sure both Heupel and our opponents find interesting and they probably have it already broken down even further to try to see what works and what doesn't.

Obviously, last year was a much more successful year overall and no one would disagree there, but there's obviously room for improvement on 3rd down even when Heupel's offense is firing on all cylinders.

It's comical to see people get defensive if someone dares to analyze the "Holy Year of 2022" to see if something could've gone even better. What the heck do you think coaches do?
 
#21
#21
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#22
#22
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
I think the thing to take from this is: imagine how good the offense could be this year with better success on 3rd down, but also think about how unstoppable we'd have been last year if we'd converted more 3rd downs.
Click to expand...

Or how unstoppable we'd have been if we scored a touchdown on the first play of every drive 😁

SayUWantAreVOLution said:
It's comical to see people get defensive if someone dares to analyze the "Holy Year of 2022" to see if something could've gone even better. What the heck do you think coaches do?
Click to expand...

What you call defensiveness emerged in response to this comment (which bears exceedingly little resemblance to your characterization):

BruinVol said:
The offense is flawed as it just can’t overcome down and distance
Click to expand...
 
#23
#23
DuckInAPen said:
Or how unstoppable we'd have been if we scored a touchdown on the first play of every drive 😁



What you call defensiveness emerged in response to this comment (which bears exceedingly little resemblance to your characterization):
Click to expand...
I believe he backed up the claim that the offense struggled on 3rd and long last year and this year.

Responses were "why bring this up" or "but we won" or whatever which is entirely missing the point of specifically looking at 3rd and long.

Heupel, when he first spoke about his tempo offense, said there would be times when you'd miss a pass or run short and that 3 & out's were going to happen. He was right. We've seen more procedure calls, which Heupel also said early on were not good for the offense because they turn short yardage into longer yardage.

What's interesting is that the offense last year, which was extremely explosive and efficient, was not any better than this year's MUCH less explosive and efficient offense on 3rd & longer.

We could get yards last year running and passing on the early downs but not on 3rd as well. Improving that seems to be on Heupel, not the players, is what I take from that.

Basically, as BVol said: this offense doesn't do well on 3rd & long and didn't last year either.
 
#25
#25
BruinVol said:
83rd in the land with Hooker as the QB on 3rd down conversions …


26th under Milton


The offense is flawed as it just can’t overcome down and distance
Click to expand...
What your stats seem to prove is every offense is flawed when it comes to down and distance.
 
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