Third Quarter Woes

[madtownvol]

And just wanted to play basketball. And willing to play "true team basketball" as one of them called it. I'm beginning to question what may be involved in getting such players who are also P4 talents. It's like a team of role players, some of whom just happen to be stars. The psychology may be the biggest barrier to Kim's system.

Hi Retro,

I find it interesting that you take great exception to posts that make inferences about what CKC is thinking (since only she can know and we should stick to the observable data) but you seem to have fewer reservations about making attributions in regard to the players' psychology. Just an observation....

 

[volsagain]

Honestly, you would think that these blue collar, selfless, 100% team oriented, never take a play off, eat their vegetables, oh so eternally grateful D2 players (saints?) would easily defeat a team, composed of all those lazy, selfish, entitled, uncoachable, prima donnas playing D1 ball.

This morality tale always kills me. Players seldom get to this elite level with dedicating themselves to the game and being highly competitive and driven. People celebrate the work ethic is these same players afters wins only to trash them after losses.

Sure they have players that don't give 100% effort also. But it's certainly not on the high profile level as D1 televised games for everyone to see. But playing full court wide-open requires everyone to do their job or give up easy baskets. She brought them in and it's her job to fix it. Her subbing patterns make it hard to send the message. Needs to sit them on the bench until there willing to give the effort. Easy to see Zee has regressed so much this season for what ever reason. She was doing better and better in this system last year. But I really don't think the system will get her to the top.

 

[LadyVolsDiehard]

Is Candace Parker too retired now to qualify to come back to the NCAA to play for the Lady Vols?

I mean if 29 year olds who already played semi pro hoops are going to back to college I don't see why not

 

[LadyVolsDiehard]

And no one is perfect. Zee changed so much from last year it's hard to understand why. Barker is very talented and the type of player she really needed but she has a bit of ego . She's still learning at least she knows it takes better players than where she once was. Also she's probably never dealt with these types of players. She will learn from it and grow or be replaced.

I think for me the reason I don't come for Barker like I do with Zee because Zee played in this system last year. She even was successful towards the end of the season once she settled in. She/Tay/Lyss/Kaniya/Kaiya should be more of an anchors on the dos/donts in the system because they lived it last season.

 

[37620VOL]

At least take all SEC games. Might give the same result. My hunch matches yours -- we don't seem to do better after half-time. But I would like the criteria for selecting games established in advance.

Even then, we'd still have to consider a range of causes and see if we could discriminate between them

Let me ream out Gemini and I'll get back to you. The prompt was to include all 2026 SEC games. Good catch.

 

[37620VOL]

Interesting, thx for doing that. Quick question, did the Georgia, Auburn, first MSU game and Missouri games look similar? Are they not included because UT outscored the opponent in the third?

Updated table with all 12 games, additional fact-checking encouraged, and I will update for any errors.

Date	Opponent	Result	Q1 Diff	Q2 Diff	Q3 Diff	Q4 Diff	Total
Jan 1	vs. Florida	W 76–65	+10	-3	-4	+8	+11
Jan 4	at Auburn	W 73–56	+13	+2	+8	-6	+17
Jan 8	at Miss. State	W 90–80	+7	+3	+1	-1	+10
Jan 11	vs. Arkansas	W 85–50	+11	+2	+11	+11	+35
Jan 18	at #21 Alabama	W 70–59	-3	+10	-2	+6	+11
Jan 22	vs. #11 Kentucky	W 60–58	+4	+3	-6	+1	+2
Jan 29	vs. Miss. State	L 62–77	+3	-12	-8	+2	-15
Feb 5	at Georgia	W 82–77 (OT)	+1	+1	+2	-4	+5
Feb 8	at #3 S. Carolina	L 50–93	-7	-8	-15	-13	-43
Feb 12	vs. Missouri	W 98–53	+16	+15	+11	+3	+45
Feb 15	vs. #4 Texas	L 63–65	-8	+8	-3	+1	-2
Feb 17	at #17 Ole Miss	L 81–94	-6	+5	-11	-1	-13
Totals			+41	+26	-16	+17

 

[VOLINVONORE]

I think for me the reason I don't come for Barker like I do with Zee because Zee played in this system last year. She even was successful towards the end of the season once she settled in. She/Tay/Lyss/Kaniya/Kaiya should be more of an anchors on the dos/donts in the system because they lived it last season.

I don't know3 the ratio of points in the$ paint vs points fro 15 feet out. I speculate it is heavy to the 15 feet out, and many of thosE are shots bt our bigs. No wonder our second chance pointS are decreasing as Well as our offensive rebounds. I also believe we really miss our starting point guard. She adds a spark to the team that we really miss. I beliEvE Hurst has shown she can add a lot to the team. she needs to have at least 16-18 minutes per game if not more.

 

[KTrain]

No doubt I'm sure she's still learning at this level there can be ego problems. She's always coached players that were just glad to have a scholarship. And then again maybe didn't have the money to get who she wanted and took what she thought she could use. Tougher world at this level.

Actually their all learning, especially on the portal, I heard a seasoned coach say the money factor changes the whole dynamic and the process, NIL process is still evolving. He said some players that never had extra money in their pocket seem to get fat and lazy or for a better more succinct quote, lose a lot of drive.

 

[BruisedOrange]

To me, it's a combination of coaching and players. I don't truly believe the players have the confidence in the coach, and I don't think the coach knows how to reach the players.

And we seem to forget that she has a staff with SEC experience, so whatever is going wrong with the players has also not been figured out by her staff.

With all the analytic data, both practice and game, that their staff have access to... and whether the problem is still (to them) a mystery... what does seem evident is that they've determined that the fix is to execute their way out of it.
-----
I'm probably barking up the wrong dead horse, but I'd still love to see a college basketball team go on a screen fast for two weeks and see if it produces improved measurables. All the research data indicates that it should.

Our LV persistent failures--especially the 3rd quarter dropoff--seem to be generating out of the mental focus realm, not from fatigue or making wrong adjustments.

 

[Golfteacher]

This staff continues to play the same way, we do not seem to make adjustments. Cotie McMahon had a field day and the welcome mat was out in force in the paint of the opponent. We struggle and the coaches do make an answer. We just throw bodies at the situation and hope that it cures itself. More or less we will the NCAA Tournament, however, we will not last long.

 

[LadyVolsDiehard]

And we seem to forget that she has a staff with SEC experience, so whatever is going wrong with the players has also not been figured out by her staff.

Interesting point here. If you look at Roman, Gabe and Lexi all three are highly experienced between midmajor/power 4 lines before coming to Tennessee. Kim brought her assistants/besties in Angel and Jenny with her from Glenville/Marshall over. Those top 3 were brought IMO via the AD since Kim wasn't well versed in Power 4/SEC so she needs that help. I just don't think this coaching core has gel'd the way many would hope.

 

[RetroVol]

Let me ream out Gemini and I'll get back to you. The prompt was to include all 2026 SEC games. Good catch.

I TOTALLY get that!

 

[BruisedOrange]

Interesting point here. If you look at Roman, Gabe and Lexi all three are highly experienced between midmajor/power 4 lines before coming to Tennessee. Kim brought her assistants/besties in Angel and Jenny with her from Glenville/Marshall over. Those top 3 were brought IMO via the AD since Kim wasn't well versed in Power 4/SEC so she needs that help. I just don't think this coaching core has gel'd the way many would hope.

Not challenging you, just asking honestly: what have you observed or heard to indicate that?

 

[AllVols3]

To me, it's a combination of coaching and players. I don't truly believe the players have the confidence in the coach, and I don't think the coach knows how to reach the players.

Your statement put ut all on the coach. So which is it ?

 

[RetroVol]

Feels like constant shading of P4 players as lazy, selfish and money oriented. If only they were true blue as those sainted lower division players . . .

Certainly not intended. But, if you're asking players to change the way they've played, I suspect P4 players have put a lot more hours into a certain kind of play, and see themselves continuing that play in the future, so are likely more skeptical of changing. Also more interested, from a financial standpoint for the bigger stars, in their stats as a basis for future earnings. Not throwing shade. It's just a difference, and one that I suspect can affect Kim's ability to sell her system. Which is NOT to say I think Kim's approach is necessarily a hindrance for developing pro skills. But the substitution patterns, unless they're working, probably are.

Here’s the thing, you could have a team of P4 cheetahs who are also Rebecca of Donnybrook Farm and this system wouldn’t work against top teams. The coaching and level of play by the opponents is just too good.

I keep hearing this. But I have yet to hear anyone say, "Hey, I watched this game and I think they were running the various presses, defenses, and offenses that the coaching staff put in with effort and skill, and it still wasn't working." The system has worked. Yes, the D2 opponents weren't as athletic or as skilled. Okay, neither were Kim's players. It worked at Marshall. It worked last year. Write it off as "fluke," or "they weren't ready for it," or whatever. It worked. (I'm of the opinion last year's team bought in and worked harder at executing than this year's, but that's just my opinion.)

That said, Kim and her staff have a the experience with this system and with college players, now including P4. I think she's shown a willingness to look at what she lacks and go get it or adjust.
Examples. include an older staff member when she was hired at Glenville (got her dad), experience in the SEC when she came here (assistant coaches), analytics, etc. She's also made clear she takes notes on her teams and goes back and reviews them. Based on that, I suspect she'll be leading an in-depth review of everything from the kind of players recruited to "the system" to mental coaching and development of leadership. She'll have to separate out what is systemic and what was just problematic for this group of players. Then make decisions and move forward.

And, as you and I have agreed, ultimately it will have to show up in results on the floor. In Ws. Everything else is just talk.

 

[AllVols3]

Certainly not intended. But, if you're asking players to change the way they've played, I suspect P4 players have put a lot more hours into a certain kind of play, and see themselves continuing that play in the future, so are likely more skeptical of changing. Also more interested, from a financial standpoint for the bigger stars, in their stats as a basis for future earnings. Not throwing shade. It's just a difference, and one that I suspect can affect Kim's ability to sell her system. Which is NOT to say I think Kim's approach is necessarily a hindrance for developing pro skills. But the substitution patterns, unless they're working, probably are.


I keep hearing this. But I have yet to hear anyone say, "Hey, I watched this game and I think they were running the various presses, defenses, and offenses that the coaching staff put in with effort and skill, and it still wasn't working." The system has worked. Yes, the D2 opponents weren't as athletic or as skilled. Okay, neither were Kim's players. It worked at Marsall. It worked last year. Write it off as "fluke," or "they weren't ready for it," or whatever. It worked. (I'm of the opinion last year's team bought in and worked harder at executing than this year's, but that's just my opinion.)

That said, Kim and her staff have a the experience with this system and with college players, now including P4. I think she's shown a willingness to look at what she lacks and go get it or adjust.
Examples. include an older staff member when she was hired at Marshall (got her dad), experience in the SEC when she came here (assistant coaches), analytics, etc. She's also made clear she takes notes on her teams and goes back and reviews them. Based on that, I suspect she'll be leading an in-depth review of everything from the kind of players recruited to "they system" to mental coaching and development of leadership. She'll have to separate out what is systemic and what was just problematic for this group of players. Then make decisions and move forward.

And, as you and I have agreed, ultimately it will have to show up in results on the floor. In Ws. Everything else is just talk.

Better, HUNGRY portal players,

 

[LadyVolsDiehard]

Not challenging you, just asking honestly: what have you observed or heard to indicate that?

Well for starters Gabe used to be hell of loud from the bench last season motivating the girls. This year not so much. I tend to pick up little things like that in individuals when something is off even if they lie about it. Call it intuition

 

[LV renaissance]

I was wondering if the 3rd quarter underperformance was a thing last year as well, so I did some hopefully correct math on the regular season SEC games last year. Overall, it looks like the 3rd quarter was relatively similar to the average of the other quarters. If you just look at the sum of the 3rd quarters, we had an overall +18 point difference and a +1.3 average per game. Interestingly, 5 of the last 6 games were in the plus column. For the overall game, we had a sum of +76 margin with an average game margin of 5.4, which translate to an average quarter being at just slightly over +1.3, so almost identical to the third quarter. Thus, the 3rd quarter must not be a general Kim issue, but yet again is an interaction of Kim and this particular team.

 

[dognusty]

Your statement put ut all on the coach. So which is it ?

Both.

 

[Chippo]

IMO Kim probably has never had to deal with this kind of thing with players before, the moody lazy play head cases. Hope she is leaning on Barnes or someone whom she trusts for advice. She probably is doing that but it doesn't seem to be working with this bunch.

NIL,,brought this on. Whoever offers these
Kids the most money is where they will go.
No loyalty to a team or college.

 

[Momto2]

One hypothetical possibility:

Opposing coach at halftime--Okay they keep doing "A" and we can beat that if we starting more of "B." Let's hope they don't change tactics (rounds of laughter in locker room).

CKC at halftime - Okay team. Our opponent seems to be figuring out how to beat us doing "A."

So lets go out there and do "A" even "harder"!!!!

Madtownvol
You said it for me so well. Halftime adjustments by opposing coaches, and a lack of re-adjustment by CKC. The Stats support this analysis.

 

[RetroVol]

Well for starters Gabe used to be hell of loud from the bench last season motivating the girls. This year not so much

Taking the observation as valid, one possibility is Gabe has changed his behavior because of dynamics within the coaching staff. Another is that he has changed his behavior because of interactions with this team that make him think it is not as helpful. A third is that he is looking to become a head coach and has been told that being seen as too much of a "cheerleader" and "buddy" to the players works against him when he moves from a heavy emphasis on recruiting to the more varied demands of a head coach. There are probably other possibilities.

 

[RetroVol]

I was wondering if the 3rd quarter underperformance was a thing last year as well, so I did some hopefully correct math on the regular season SEC games last year. Overall, it looks like the 3rd quarter was relatively similar to the average of the other quarters. If you just look at the sum of the 3rd quarters, we had an overall +18 point difference and a +1.3 average per game. Interestingly, 5 of the last 6 games were in the plus column. For the overall game, we had a sum of +76 margin with an average game margin of 5.4, which translate to an average quarter being at just slightly over +1.3, so almost identical to the third quarter. Thus, the 3rd quarter must not be a general Kim issue, but yet again is an interaction of Kim and this particular team.

Thanks for extending the analysis back to the 2024-25 season. As has been pointed out, the expectations generated by that season have not been met this season. It disappoints fans and I'm sure dismays the coaches. I suspect there will be a lot of internal analysis after the season.

 

[brittannica]

Idk about Gabe being a cheerleader, but his screaming at them is certainly audible from my seats across the court. Sometimes he is even beet red.

 

[BruisedOrange]

Madtownvol
You said it for me so well. Halftime adjustments by opposing coaches, and a lack of re-adjustment by CKC. The Stats support this analysis.

From CKC's postgame and midweek pressers, the usual halftime adjustment has been to "start doing what you do in practice that you didn't do in the first half."

And that's a totally legitimate adjustment.

If the team didn't execute the gameplan in the first half, why would any coach switch to something different from what the team practiced and prepared specifically for this opponent?