There's a good chance we don't win out

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#176
#176
vtvol98 said:
The two teams they have played with a pulse, UGA and Ole Miss, scored 31 and 27 respectively. The rest of the teams they played; WKU, AP, MTSU, USCe, and Mizzou didn't have an offensive pulse.
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UGA only scored 17 points offensively though. 7 were from special teams and 7 from defense. Western Ky does have an offensive pulse. They're pretty good for a mid-major. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt because it was the first game of the season.

I think UT scores 27-28 points and wins something like 28-6 or 28-10. If Vandy turns the ball over then it'll be a real blow out.
 
#178
#178
Missouri's defense is very good and the game's up there. Unless our offense really cranks it up the next three weeks I can't see the spread in that game being double digits.
 
#179
#179
vtvol98 said:
Vandy's offense is garbage. Their offensive three and outs will be like body punches to their defense. Vols pull away BIG in the second half at home.

If the N Tex spread is in the 30s then I doubt UT covers. Butch empties the bench early in this puppy.
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If the Vegas bookies thoroughly analyze the North Texas stat line, it shouldn't be in the 30s; it probably should be in the 40s. They have a legitimate shot at running the table and finishing 0-12. North Texas is 122nd in total defense (546.7 ypg), 121st in rushing defense (255.6 ypg), 125th in pass efficiency defense (including a 70% pass completion percentage by opponents, 1 interception and 19 touchdown passes surrendered), 126th in scoring defense (47.3 ppg, including 44 touchdowns surrendered in seven games). See Total Defense | FBS Football Statistics - NCAA.com, Rushing Defense | FBS Football Statistics - NCAA.com, Team Passing Efficiency Defense | FBS Football Statistics - NCAA.com, and Scoring Defense | FBS Football Statistics - NCAA.com. They have already surrendered 670 yards of total offense and 66 points to Portland State, 62 points to Iowa, 573 yard and 49 points vs. Southern Miss, and 683 yards and 55 points to Western Kentucky.

Superlatives do not adequately describe just how bad their defense is. Tennessee total offense and scoring records could be broken in this game without any great concerted effort. This is the kind of game in which three Tennessee running backs could each amass 100 yards, which has been achieved only once before in program history, and, if Butch wanted to throw the ball enough for Dormady to truly work up a lather in the passing game, two Tennessee quarterbacks could each throw for 200 yards.

Incidentally, North Texas is 123rd in scoring offense (16.4 ppg), 103rd in total offense (349.4 ypg), 101st in passing offense (183.3 ypg), and 72nd in rushing offense (166.1 ypg), so their offense is almost as anemic as their defense is porous. This looks like the ultimate sacrificial lamb opponent.
 
#181
#181
If Mizzou had scored more than 3 points against Vandy, I might be a little more worried.
 
#182
#182
I'll say this: if we don't win out, then this season would be an underachievement. We've lost a ton of close games, but we've been competitive in all of them. You can't lose to teams that have decidedly less talent.
 
#184
#184
goldvol said:
If you asked my friends, they would say I'm the most optimistic guy they know. We could be down by 17 with 5 minutes to go, and I'm still holding out hope. I'm the guy that never leaves the stadium earlier. I hope we go undefeated; and we have a chance to go undefeated. It's just probably 50/50 or less.
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This is completely contradictory to your whole premise in this thread.
 
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#185
#185
99gator said:
Tennessee will win out.

Don't underestimate the level of pitiful of these teams on the schedule.

Tennessee will roll them. They may or may not win the bowl game. They'll win the first three of 2016.

Gameday will come to town and there will be a smokey grey, checkerboard, Salute to Dollywood, #bluetickcoondog "out" for the Florida game
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Gator fan making more sense than OP... :jpshakehead:
 
#186
#186
goldvol said:
Don't expect to win out. Math doesn't expect us to win out. Butch doesn't expect us to win out (he only focuses on the next game). You start expecting us to go 5-0 from here, you are probably going to be disappointed and will ultimately want to fire Butch.

Take Kentucky, of which we are a 7.5 point favorite. Historically, we will win about 73% of the time with this spread. South Carolina and Missouri will have similar spreads, if not a closer game. Let's assume the Vandy spread is 14 (85% chance to win). I'll assume North Texas is 100%, even though it's not.

So we are 73% favorites in 3 games and 85% favorites in 1 game. Looks like we are big favorites to win, right?
Wrong. With these odds, the odds of being undefeated from here on out is only 33%. 2 out of 3 times we will have at least 1 loss.

Feel free to adjust the percentages within reason. You can make us 90% favorite in each of the last games, and we still only go undefeated 2 out of 3 times.

I am a fan. I want to win every game. We are probably favored in every game. We are the better team in every game. However, we probably will finish 7-5 this year.
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Wow, I'm so impressed by this I don't know how to react.

But hey, take your numbers game and apply it to every team that is unbeaten. And would your method say we should have any unbeaten teams at this point in the season. No of course not because nothing is 100% in college football.

To say Butch doesn't think he can win out!!! How do you know this? Playing one game at a time is the best way to WIN OUT!

Math is great! I'm not sitting around predicting 5-0 but I am predicting 1-0 for each of the next 5 weeks.
 
#187
#187
BearBryant said:
To say Butch doesn't think he can win out!!! How do you know this? Playing one game at a time is the best way to WIN OUT!
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I didn't say that Butch doesn't think we can win out. I think we can win out, and the original post says we can win out. But from what Butch has said, he is not thinking about winning out. Like most coaches, he is focusing on the next game on the schedule (hopefully).
 
#188
#188
goldvol said:
Don't expect to win out. Math doesn't expect us to win out. Butch doesn't expect us to win out (he only focuses on the next game). You start expecting us to go 5-0 from here, you are probably going to be disappointed and will ultimately want to fire Butch.

Take Kentucky, of which we are a 7.5 point favorite. Historically, we will win about 73% of the time with this spread. South Carolina and Missouri will have similar spreads, if not a closer game. Let's assume the Vandy spread is 14 (85% chance to win). I'll assume North Texas is 100%, even though it's not.

So we are 73% favorites in 3 games and 85% favorites in 1 game. Looks like we are big favorites to win, right?
Wrong. With these odds, the odds of being undefeated from here on out is only 33%. 2 out of 3 times we will have at least 1 loss.

Feel free to adjust the percentages within reason. You can make us 90% favorite in each of the last games, and we still only go undefeated 2 out of 3 times.

I am a fan. I want to win every game. We are probably favored in every game. We are the better team in every game. However, we probably will finish 7-5 this year.
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So you give us a 33% chance based on your calculations, give me 3-1 odds and I will be you all day long. Butch's teams have struggled to close the deal when battling with teams that are equal or better in talent than his team. His teams, however, have never struggled to beat teams when he had a significant talent advantage. UT has a significant talent advantage over every team left on our regular season schedule. Barring additional injuries, we will go undefeated. We might not cover the spread in every game by underperforming in a game. But we will not lose.
 
#189
#189
I said before the season don't overlook Arkansas or KY. Should we beat KY? Yes. But they have improved and they could beat us. Our team was really inspired against Bama and if they play good solid ball we can win out but don't take any game for granted--that's what gets you beat.
 
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#190
#190
therickbol said:
So you give us a 33% chance based on your calculations, give me 3-1 odds and I will be you all day long.
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daniel3417 said:
By your math, I need 3 to 1 payout odds.
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You guys either are either hustlers, or you need to check your math. With your math, if it's 50% chance of winning (coin flip), would you suggest I give 2 to 1 odds? :) If 33% is the actual odds of winning out, the correct odds would be 2 to 1. So to be a good bet for me, I would give something like 1.5 to 1 to a person that is overly confident that we will win.

3 to 1 would be saying we have a 25% chance to win out.
 
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#191
#191
goldvol said:
Don't expect to win out. Math doesn't expect us to win out. Butch doesn't expect us to win out (he only focuses on the next game). You start expecting us to go 5-0 from here, you are probably going to be disappointed and will ultimately want to fire Butch.

Take Kentucky, of which we are a 7.5 point favorite. Historically, we will win about 73% of the time with this spread. South Carolina and Missouri will have similar spreads, if not a closer game. Let's assume the Vandy spread is 14 (85% chance to win). I'll assume North Texas is 100%, even though it's not.

So we are 73% favorites in 3 games and 85% favorites in 1 game. Looks like we are big favorites to win, right?
Wrong. With these odds, the odds of being undefeated from here on out is only 33%. 2 out of 3 times we will have at least 1 loss.

Feel free to adjust the percentages within reason. You can make us 90% favorite in each of the last games, and we still only go undefeated 2 out of 3 times.

I am a fan. I want to win every game. We are probably favored in every game. We are the better team in every game. However, we probably will finish 7-5 this year.
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Thanks BILLY BUZZ KILL😄
 
#192
#192
There's a chance we don't win out, especially if Mauk comes back to Mizzou as reported, but the chance isn't good IMO.
 
#195
#195
shall I piss in your cheerios as well sir?

this is exactly what we all want to see going into this weeks game, just win the damn game and worry about 5-0 after we play the next five games, jesus.....folks just sit around thinking up ways to **** on anything with this program....
 
#196
#196
wesleydmartin said:
shall I piss in your cheerios as well sir?

this is exactly what we all want to see going into this weeks game, just win the damn game and worry about 5-0 after we play the next five games, jesus.....folks just sit around thinking up ways to **** on anything with this program....
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Sorry, sir. It has nothing to do with disrespecting the UT football program. In fact, it's just the opposite. If the entire fanbase gets their hopes up (unrealistically) of being 5-0 from here on out, that could have a negative impact on the program, recruiting, and coach Jones.
 
#197
#197
goldvol said:
Sorry, sir. It has nothing to do with disrespecting the UT football program. In fact, it's just the opposite. If the entire fanbase gets their hopes up (unrealistically) of being 5-0 from here on out, that could have a negative impact on the program, recruiting, and coach Jones.
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im not a fan who thinks like that, i do how ever think we can get to at least 6 wins and another bowl, i dont see it hurting recruiting that much, it just seems like no matter what some of our fans are always super negative

and i do think that over thinking of how to go 5-0 will lead to losing more then one game, the mentality for a player has to be the next game i understand fans wanna look into next year with the predictions, but football doesnt work like that....

i dont see recruiting and all that truly being hurt, your seeing a coach, who is coaching better, players are getting better, and sticking by struggling players, fans may hate it but potential kids want to see that from a coach just MO
 
#198
#198
grobin4300 said:
Dobbs didn't fumble on his own, he fumbled because the coaches failed to chip block on the right side w/ a true freshman and the pass was gonna go to Dobbs left therefore he didn't have any blindside help other than the right tackle. Once you learn football come an talk to me !!
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lulz
 
#200
#200
It safe to change "don't win out" to "do win out" I think and it's going to be the start of a long win streak into 2016
 
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