There's a good chance we don't win out

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#53
#53
Yes, when you cube .73 and multiply that by .85, would get .33. Good work on the calculator. However, you need to adjust the formula after each win. After we beat Kentucky, it's only squaring .73 and multiplying by .85. Then just .73 times .85.

Looking at this as one string of events is a statically incorrect viewpoint. And yes, I'd love to take a bet on this. By your math, I need 3 to 1 payout odds.
 
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#54
#54
goldvol said:
My analysis had nothing to do with past UT teams. I can claim that UT will not win out, based on my assumptions.
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Then why did you say "historically" UT wins 73% of time as a 7.5 pt favorite? If you yanked that out of your rear... then don't be surprised when people don't treat your "assumptions" very seriously.

I am open to other assumptions, within reason.
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Assumptions aren't really needed in this case. Each of these teams has played games to show who they are. For instance, here is a "fact" that points toward the outcome of the UK game. UK has held only one opponent below their season avg for total O and total points.

There are plenty of statistical and experiential observations that point toward UT beating each of these opponents. None of these opponents are in the same class as the 4 teams that have beaten UT.

They can be better than all the other teams on the schedule, and still be an underdog to go undefeated.
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Um, no. If they SHOULD beat each of the teams on the schedule then SHOULD win out. I understand what you are trying to do but it is a misapplication of that line of reasoning.

The same could apply for the best college football team and the best NFL team, depending on the assumptions of how big of a favorite they are.
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You CAN make that case but you CANNOT make that case detached from the relative talent levels AND performance of the teams in question. That is what you attempted to do.
 
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#57
#57
daniel3417 said:
Yes, when you cube .73 and multiply that by .85, would get .33. Good work on the calculator. However, you need to adjust the formula after each win. After we beat Kentucky, it's only squaring .73 and multiplying by .85. Then just .73 times .85.

Looking at this as one string of events is a statically incorrect viewpoint. And yes, I'd love to take a bet on this. By your math, I need 3 to 1 payout odds.
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From what you wrote above, you are starting with the assumption of a win on Saturday? I did not assume we win Saturday. You may use some different assumptions, and I am happy to evaluate what you think the odds of going 5-0 based on your assumptions.
 
#58
#58
sjt18 said:
Then why did you say "historically" UT wins 73% of time as a 7.5 pt favorite? If you yanked that out of your rear... then don't be surprised when people don't treat your "assumptions" very seriously.
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Nope, historically, a college football team wins 73% of the time as a 7.5 point favorite. While UT is a college football team and is included in that calculation, it was not based on UT football.

sjt18 said:
Assumptions aren't really needed in this case. Each of these teams has played games to show who they are. For instance, here is a "fact" that points toward the outcome of the UK game. UK has held only one opponent below their season avg for total O and total points.

There are plenty of statistical and experiential observations that point toward UT beating each of these opponents. None of these opponents are in the same class as the 4 teams that have beaten UT.
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Ok, so assumptions are not needed, but then you make assumptions. Got it.

sjt18 said:
Um, no. If they SHOULD beat each of the teams on the schedule then SHOULD win out. I understand what you are trying to do but it is a misapplication of that line of reasoning..
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Sorry, mathematically, this is not accurate. This is like saying, he is 90% from the free throw line, so he should go 15 for 15 in the game.
 
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#59
#59
We win out barring any major off the field issues should arise. Such as key members of the team being accused of really bad things resulting in their immediate dismissal such as lat year before the Missou game.
 
#60
#60
VolunteerTitan3 said:
We win out barring any major off the field issues should arise. Such as key members of the team being accused of really bad things resulting in their immediate dismissal such as lat year before the Missou game.
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Well, the probability of major off field issues could be factored into the equation, along with the likelihood of a significant injury to a key play (Dobbs for us). The likelihood of something happening to us can be assumed the same as the likelihood of something happening to each of our opponents. The problem is that when it happens to us, it could affect all the remainder of the games, where when it happens to an opponent, it will only affect that one game for us.
 
#61
#61
From here on out we play terrible teams. We best win out or people will really turn on Butch. Myself included.
 
#62
#62
goldvol said:
Well, the probability of major off field issues could be factored into the equation, along with the likelihood of a significant injury to a key play (Dobbs for us). The likelihood of something happening to us can be assumed the same as the likelihood of something happening to each of our opponents. The problem is that when it happens to us, it could affect all the remainder of the games, where when it happens to an opponent, it will only affect that one game for us.
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I should have included injuries in that as well. Injuries can sometimes cause a team to rally together and play stronger. Off field shenanigans seems to have a real negative effect on the whole team though..
 
#63
#63
goldvol said:
Don't expect to win out. Math doesn't expect us to win out. Butch doesn't expect us to win out (he only focuses on the next game). You start expecting us to go 5-0 from here, you are probably going to be disappointed and will ultimately want to fire Butch.

Take Kentucky, of which we are a 7.5 point favorite. Historically, we will win about 73% of the time with this spread. South Carolina and Missouri will have similar spreads, if not a closer game. Let's assume the Vandy spread is 14 (85% chance to win). I'll assume North Texas is 100%, even though it's not.

So we are 73% favorites in 3 games and 85% favorites in 1 game. Looks like we are big favorites to win, right?
Wrong. With these odds, the odds of being undefeated from here on out is only 33%. 2 out of 3 times we will have at least 1 loss.

Feel free to adjust the percentages within reason. You can make us 90% favorite in each of the last games, and we still only go undefeated 2 out of 3 times.

I am a fan. I want to win every game. We are probably favored in every game. We are the better team in every game. However, we probably will finish 7-5 this year.
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This team will win out and with Bowl victory that's a 9 and 4 season just what i thought we would do, this team will be one BIG BAD AZZ FOOTBALL TEAM, that put fear in to the other team eye's when you look into them, we are right on schedule with all the injuries we have had and playing a lot of true freshmen the last 2 year's will pay of in 2016 this team will have depth and talent every where we are TENNESSEE and right now with a 3 and 4 record that is a very good young team, there is not a team in the country that will won't to play us in our Bowl game because they know they got a azz kicking coming to them.:rock::
 
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#64
#64
Boca Vol said:
If we don't win out, we haven't turned the corner. 7-5 at this point means UT lost to a pretty bad team somewhere along the way.
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I'm already feeling like the Arkansas game was that way. Sure, they beat Augbarn, but with losses to Toledo and Texas Tech, I just don't think we should have lost to them.
 
#65
#65
Far too many variables to make absolute statements one way or another in sports.

You can predict(guess) trends but it's always settled on the field where anything can happen.
 
#67
#67
History shows we have about a 98% chance of beating UK, not 70% or whatever. They were exposed by MSU last week. Vandy, SC and Mizzou should end the SEC slate with 1-7 conference records, their only wins being against each other. We have at LEAST a 90% chance in each one because all of them are turrble. NT is a cupcake win. If we somehow do drop one, then this season is an underachievement, and Butch is responsible.
 
#69
#69
goldvol said:
Don't expect to win out. Math doesn't expect us to win out. Butch doesn't expect us to win out (he only focuses on the next game). You start expecting us to go 5-0 from here, you are probably going to be disappointed and will ultimately want to fire Butch.

Take Kentucky, of which we are a 7.5 point favorite. Historically, we will win about 73% of the time with this spread. South Carolina and Missouri will have similar spreads, if not a closer game. Let's assume the Vandy spread is 14 (85% chance to win). I'll assume North Texas is 100%, even though it's not.

So we are 73% favorites in 3 games and 85% favorites in 1 game. Looks like we are big favorites to win, right?
Wrong. With these odds, the odds of being undefeated from here on out is only 33%. 2 out of 3 times we will have at least 1 loss.

Feel free to adjust the percentages within reason. You can make us 90% favorite in each of the last games, and we still only go undefeated 2 out of 3 times.

I am a fan. I want to win every game. We are probably favored in every game. We are the better team in every game. However, we probably will finish 7-5 this year.
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one or two more losses.
 
#70
#70
goldvol said:
Don't expect to win out. Math doesn't expect us to win out. Butch doesn't expect us to win out (he only focuses on the next game). You start expecting us to go 5-0 from here, you are probably going to be disappointed and will ultimately want to fire Butch.

Take Kentucky, of which we are a 7.5 point favorite. Historically, we will win about 73% of the time with this spread. South Carolina and Missouri will have similar spreads, if not a closer game. Let's assume the Vandy spread is 14 (85% chance to win). I'll assume North Texas is 100%, even though it's not.

So we are 73% favorites in 3 games and 85% favorites in 1 game. Looks like we are big favorites to win, right?
Wrong. With these odds, the odds of being undefeated from here on out is only 33%. 2 out of 3 times we will have at least 1 loss.

Feel free to adjust the percentages within reason. You can make us 90% favorite in each of the last games, and we still only go undefeated 2 out of 3 times.

I am a fan. I want to win every game. We are probably favored in every game. We are the better team in every game. However, we probably will finish 7-5 this year.
Click to expand...

Sounds like a good reason to just focus on one game at a time rather than focus on the games in total???? Just sayin'?
 
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#71
#71
Math says KY beats UT once every 29 years or so. It's only been a couple of years since they beat us, so we should 'Whup dey azz' for the next 25 years or so. jmo
 
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#72
#72
So...this thread is a hypothesis of historical assumptions using algorithms to dictate the outcome of college football games.? :loco::crazy:
 
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#75
#75
WesternKyVol said:
Expect to win out.
Demand to win out!
The remainder of the schedule is truly against bottom feeders.
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Well technically UK and Mizzou have better overall records. UK is ahead of us in the East Standings,at least until Sat anyway. There are no excuses for losing another game on our schedule but unfortunately the best teams don't always win. Going on the road to UK and Mizzou won't be easy. Mizzou's D is what scares me. Plus it's hard to assume a win on the road against a team we haven't beaten since they joined the SEC. Their D is one of the best in the conference. That won't be a gimme win. Just hope Mauk doesn't get reinstated before we play them. But first things first..we gotta go to Lexington on Halloween night after a heartbreaking and hard-fought loss. If the players aren't focused it could be a dog fight.
 
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