I'm not optimistic or pessimistic. I am realistic and hopeful.
I HOPE for the best but am realistic about some of the things that place limits on expectations.
One, Jones still hasn't proven he belongs in the SEC. You can make excuses and dodge this way or that... but the bottom line is that Jones has lost too many games that should have or reasonably could have been won. He really only has a couple of upset wins to his credit and those weren't earthshattering.
Two, I personally feel really good about the QB position and even the development there in spite of not previously having had a QB coach. I'm probably in the minority that doesn't think that was necessarily a mistake by Jones. If you are going to replace a 3 year starter... you can't do much better than a 4th year Jr... or a RS Fr who beat him out.
Three, I like Kelly. I like Kelly better as a RB in this system than I ever liked Kamara or Hurd. AK's value was more as a receiver IMO. Kelly finds the creases and pressures the 2nd level. UT needs another option to protect Kelly's health. But I hope for great things out of him.
Four, the OL. There's talent. You have to presume the guys have learned something and physically developed in some way since joining the team. I think I count at least 7 guys coming back with starting or significant playing experience. There are 7 guys with at least 3 years in the program. But somehow this group has consistently underperformed and especially when competition levels go up. I HOPE they pull it together under Wells but this is a significant concern based on what they've shown. It is particularly a concern because it could be Jones' system and not something the players should be and aren't doing.
Five, WR/TE- I like them. There's not a ton of returning production but I for one am very happy to see Azzani gone. If he was the one behind no 7 on 7 then all the better. I really think he did a poor job of developing UT's talent at WR. I have great hope this group will emerge with the new QB.
Six, DL- What's not to love about DT if they can stay healthy? I love the approach Hoke has brought and his desire to have his guys hyper aggressive. There ARE concerns at DE. For whatever reason, UT really hasn't gotten much out of anyone but the 3 guys who were lost over the past couple of years. Hopefully someone will emerge out of what appears to be a very talented group.
Seven, LB- This is a huge problem. You only have two guys on the roster who have ever played like they belong in the SEC... and both of them have missed time due to injury. I don't know if it is a talent issue, coaching issue, system issue, or something else. But UT needs to go two deep or more at all 3 positions... as of the end of last season they weren't close.
8, Secondary- Love the safeties. You have 3 or 4 potential studs at safety.... guys who definitely belong in the SEC and who could play for anyone in the country. I think there's talent at CB and N. My HOPE is that the 7 on 7's will allow them to develop their cover skills and communication more than ever before.
9, Defensive staff- I have thought Shoop was a great hire from the start and still do. Give Jones max credit with a lame duck AD for going out and getting the hottest DC name in the country. Shoop didn't recruit the players he was left with and didn't have anything like what he needed at LB to run his system. The roster to a significant degree was recruited and developed to run Jancek's system. A year will hopefully help. I think there were chemistry problems between Shoop and Jancek's holdovers... and maybe worse. To me the two changes were definite upgrades and especially in terms of buying into the way Shoop does things. I am hopeful that UT will not only improve over all but improve over their high water mark last year. UT was at a respectable 21 ppg at the end of September and had played good competition. I am hopeful that the injury causes have been addressed and they will be better than that for the season this year.
10, Offensive staff- apprehension. There are some quality coaches but Wells and Scott in particular are take a pretty major step up in responsibility and/or competition. I like Canales and LOVE Beard. IMO, this staff was assembled to run Jones' system, Jones' way. That imo will be his rise or fall.
11- HC-apprehension. You have to give Jones credit for how far he's brought the program. At the same time, he has revealed some potentially fatal flaws in his first 4 years. Hopefully he can get better. Hopefully he's now surrounded himself with a complimentary staff that is strong where he's weak. HOPEFULLY, he turns the corner this year and proves he can lead a team to perform above "reasonable" expectations... 9 or 10 regular season wins. Hopefully he won't win 8 again and reinforce his mediocrity... or worse.
So is "hope a dangerous thing"?
