The rebuild will be in 3 stages

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Alabama and Florida on the road are near certain losses. As is Georgia at home, that team is returning practically everyone, and if some juniors go pro, they've largely got younger more talented guys behind them who played a lot this year.

Missouri is losing Lock, but it is on the road and considering they have drastically outmatched us the last two times we've played, I'm not prepared to consider this a win right now, it's a toss up at best.

Vandy is also losing Shurmer, based on them whipping us 3 times in a row though, I'm not prepared to call this anymore than a toss up either.

USC, jr.? I think we need to beat Muschamp at least once before we ever consider him anything better than a toss up.

Miss State is losing A LOT, we are at home, and Moorhead is a serious downgrade from Mullen, we have the edge I think but no margin for error, 60/40 good guys.

Kentucky, same, probably a worse team than Miss State, but it's on the road, 65/35 good guys.

BYU/UAB, tough outs for non-cons 70/30 and 80/20 propositions in favor of the good guys.

Georgia State and Chattanooga, shut it down if we lose.

So, with 3 near certain losses, 3 toss-ups, 4 more likely than not but not certain wins, and 2 as close to certain as possible wins, 8-4 would be almost like drawing an inside straight, 7-5 would be a very solid record, 6-6 improvement, 5-7 not unthinkable, and 4-8 backwards.

 

[njvols]

This class shows me that CJP has a MUCH better sense of the kind of athlete you need to start with. I think they’ll be a bowl team next year and a legit program in 2-3 years.

We at least need to show some progress in 2019 to feel that we're moving in right direction. I think it can't be underestimated that we get most of our OL signees on campus early for spring practice, giving us depth we didn't have this year in the spring. should pay off. I think Pruitt said 12 is the number of early enrollees...don't think we've ever had that many.

 

[diehardvolsfan]

I could see 9-3 in 2019

If all the players play hard and not give up 9-3 is possible. All this depends on the new OC we get too

 

[sona]

We have to out recruit, develop, scheme, and coach to beat anyone with a pulse in the SEC. I’ll believe it when I see it.

 

[Vol8188]

If we cant get to 8 wins next season with that schedule, I will seriously doubt that Pruitt is the guy.

There’s not 8 guaranteed wins on that schedule.

6-8 wins should be the expectation though

 

[ftsandersvol]

If we cant get to 8 wins next season with that schedule, I will seriously doubt that Pruitt is the guy.

That only happens if we have enough Pruitt recruits to not have to play any of the soft Butch recruits, i.e., the p*ssies that didn't want to get to a bowl game this year. Unfortunately, at this stage in the Pruitt era, that doesn't seem likely.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

We have to out recruit, develop, scheme, and coach to beat anyone with a pulse in the SEC. I’ll believe it when I see it.

So I guess you didnt watch the Auburn and Kentucky games huh?

 

[terrypedigo]

Next year win 7 games, compete in the other 5 bring in a top 10 recruiting class then win 9 in 2020 with another top 10 recruiting class then we will be on our way, do it like Clemson did it some were won'ting to run Dabo of after year 4 but Clemson stuck with him now look at them, JP is doing it the same way build depth at the OL and DL and strong defense with speed at linebacker and we got talent now on the back in, strong running game with strong defense = win's we got to give JP TIME, he is trying to build a program not just a 2 to 3 year wonder like olemiss and mississippi st we got the tradition and the history to show the elite recruits that we are a TOP 10 program year in year out not just a 2 or 3 year wonder i am a 49 year fan i remember beating bama 7 in a row beating them wasn't that big of a deal after beating there ears of pretty often and beating the Dawgs was like beating vandy no big deal because you expect to every year why don't we give JP time and TENNESSEE WILL BEAT THERE EARS OF AGAIN.

 

[Hank Bukowski]

1. Simply get to a minimum of 6 wins a year while being competitive in most every game. This was the level Dooley had problems attaining. Jones needed the Miracle at Columbia to get there in Year 2. Many Vol fans deny this 1st level is part of the rebuild.
2. Get to 8-9 wins a year, with almost no losses to teams below us to teams in the recruiting rankings. We are competitive in all but 1-2 games a year, and beat Florida on a regular basis. We’ve only been at this level once since 2007. 2016 was a mirage where we were lucky to win 8 regular season games.
3. Get to 10+ regular season games and routinely stomp teams that have had the upper hand of late. At this level, we beat Georgia or Alabama from time to time and compete for division or conference championships.

As we climb to the next level, the level of recruits and ability to flip becomes much easier. A lot of fans are bummed we couldn’t grab someone that Bama or Georgia had committed but we are just not there yet. It’s actually a good sign we held onto our commits through ESD.

1. Recruit.
2. Develop who you recruit.
3. Coach them to win every snap.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

i am a 49 year fan i remember beating bama 7 in a row beating them wasn't that big of a deal after beating there ears of pretty often and beating the Dawgs was like beating vandy no big deal because you expect to every year why don't we give JP time and TENNESSEE WILL BEAT THERE EARS OF AGAIN.

I agree we've got to give CJP time, but we've also got to realize the 90’s were a perfect storm for us of other programs being down and creating a power vacuum into which we stepped. Since integration, that period of UT football is the exception not the rule.

Against Alabama, for example, we went 7-1-1 against them from 1993 to 2001, with 7 in row from 1995-2001. In the other 40 seasons since 1970 we are 8-32 against them.

Against Georgia, we have played them 33 times since 1970, from 1989-1999 after Vince Dooley retired, we were 9-0 against them. At all other times in the last 49 seasons, we are 7-17.

The bottom line is Pruitt is facing very tough headwinds with a strong Alabama and Georgia program, and Florida appearing to have made a good hire as well. This is going to take time and it’s not going to be a straight up hill road. The 8-4 or Pruitt sucks mentality another poster voiced is just crazy talk at this point. We are 62-63 in the last 10 seasons, 25-57 in the SEC, this ain’t a “rebuild”, it’s a build. Our expectation has to be just to get back to respectability and then bide our time and await our chance.

 

[OneVolNation]

Some underestimated W. Virginia before last season despite urges not to and next season it's BYU in that spot we need to have an answer for.

 

[MrBiggles]

I could see 7-9 wins next year

 

[golfer89]

I could see 7-9 wins next year

Same here, 8-4.... I will be happy to go back to Outback Bowl.... awesome time in Tampa ...

 

[chuck0303]

I agree! The old saying champions are built on defense still holds true. It may not look that way but when you look at the final score but the team with the best defense usually wins. That score may be 54-52 or some such, but in the end, when looking back, the winners defense just did a little better. I know, I know "but neither defense was any good". But at the end of the year the best teams will usually have one of the better defenses in the country. The way I see it, is like a teacher "grading on a curve" no one learned much, but some did better than others!

For one, we haven't had the depth needed to sustain ourselves especially in the 4th qtr. With Pruitt recruiting to our needs on both sides of the ball hopefully we will begin to build that depth coupled with a good S&C coach, develop these recruits, and get back to where we should be--competitive and able to sustain ourselves.

 

[diehardvolsfan]

Same here, 8-4.... I will be happy to go back to Outback Bowl.... awesome time in Tampa ...

GA Bama FL are losses. We win the 4 non conference games. SC is a toss-up so is Mizz and Vandy. UK likely is a W. I’m picking 7-5 with a bowl win to finish 8-5...

 

[Devo182]

Some underestimated W. Virginia before last season despite urges not to and next season it's BYU in that spot we need to have an answer for.

Completely different stories.

Some were calling WVU "just another" Utah St, WKU, Bowling Green, etc, but many of us understood Grier was legit with 2 NFL receivers, and a p5 defense. Most expected a loss, including Vegas. They were preseason top 25.

We should be favorites over BYU and it should be a win. No quasi-heisman candidates on that team, not a top 25 team. losing 10 sr starters too, btw.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Completely different stories.

Some were calling WVU "just another" Utah St, WKU, Bowling Green, etc, but many of us understood Grier was legit with 2 NFL receivers, and a p5 defense. Most expected a loss, including Vegas. They were preseason top 25.

We should be favorites over BYU and it should be a win. No quasi-heisman candidates on that team, not a top 25 team. losing 10 sr starters too, btw.

The reason BYU is always pretty tough is that a lot of their players are pretty old. They go on those Mormon missions before they go to college and so they've got guys that are like 24-25 and are married playing on the lines of scrimmage, grown @$$ men basically. I agree they ain't WVU, not close but historically BYU is not to be overlooked.

 

[GetYouSomeofThat]

Good point.
But Auburn & Ky were ahead of Tn this year and we beat them
I think good coaching during a game can give you about 7 points
per game. So, if the staff can coach good, that can be make the difference in a couple of game's
Notice Pearl took Peterson's roster and won immediately. It can be done thru coaching but you can't do miracles that way and go from 5 - 7 to 14 -0 by good coaching

Wonder why those chose to "coach good" against Aubie and UK and USC but chose not to the rest of the games?

 

[Weezer]

Alabama and Florida on the road are near certain losses. As is Georgia at home, that team is returning practically everyone, and if some juniors go pro, they've largely got younger more talented guys behind them who played a lot this year.

Missouri is losing Lock, but it is on the road and considering they have drastically outmatched us the last two times we've played, I'm not prepared to consider this a win right now, it's a toss up at best.

Vandy is also losing Shurmer, based on them whipping us 3 times in a row though, I'm not prepared to call this anymore than a toss up either.

USC, jr.? I think we need to beat Muschamp at least once before we ever consider him anything better than a toss up.

Miss State is losing A LOT, we are at home, and Moorhead is a serious downgrade from Mullen, we have the edge I think but no margin for error, 60/40 good guys.

Kentucky, same, probably a worse team than Miss State, but it's on the road, 65/35 good guys.

BYU/UAB, tough outs for non-cons 70/30 and 80/20 propositions in favor of the good guys.

Georgia State and Chattanooga, shut it down if we lose.

So, with 3 near certain losses, 3 toss-ups, 4 more likely than not but not certain wins, and 2 as close to certain as possible wins, 8-4 would be almost like drawing an inside straight, 7-5 would be a very solid record, 6-6 improvement, 5-7 not unthinkable, and 4-8 backwards.

You play games because nothing is certain. Hopefully we surprise some folks next year.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

You play games because nothing is certain. Hopefully we surprise some folks next year.

That's why I said "near certain".

 

[HoptownVol]

3 Stages:

1. The level of sadness (this is usually prolonged for UT fans)
2. The level of false hope, this is punctuated by an occasional surprise win over a team with a real program.
3. The level of yet another coaching search, generally noted for periods of extreme embarrassment and shame.

 

[ThreatLevelOrange]

In "no. 2",,,,, I am afraid beating Fla. regularly need to be in placed "no.3"

To clarify, i didn’t mean every year. But maybe half the time. Florida is not at Georgia’s level, but clearly a more stable program than we are at this point. The 2nd level is at least challenging for a New Years Bowl game and battling for #2 in the East.

 

[HuntlandVolinColo]

Stage 1: Fahr CBJ and clueless AD/Chancellor
Stage 2: Hire CJP and salvage 18 recruiting class
Stage 3: Instill new Culture and enhanced S&C
Stage 4: Endure first season challenges such as players that aren't a good match for your system and "Jones'errs"
Stage 5: Kick Arse early and often!

 

[ThreatLevelOrange]

I agree we've got to give CJP time, but we've also got to realize the 90’s were a perfect storm for us of other programs being down and creating a power vacuum into which we stepped. Since integration, that period of UT football is the exception not the rule.

Against Alabama, for example, we went 7-1-1 against them from 1993 to 2001, with 7 in row from 1995-2001. In the other 40 seasons since 1970 we are 8-32 against them.

Against Georgia, we have played them 33 times since 1970, from 1989-1999 after Vince Dooley retired, we were 9-0 against them. At all other times in the last 49 seasons, we are 7-17.

The bottom line is Pruitt is facing very tough headwinds with a strong Alabama and Georgia program, and Florida appearing to have made a good hire as well. This is going to take time and it’s not going to be a straight up hill road. The 8-4 or Pruitt sucks mentality another poster voiced is just crazy talk at this point. We are 62-63 in the last 10 seasons, 25-57 in the SEC, this ain’t a “rebuild”, it’s a build. Our expectation has to be just to get back to respectability and then bide our time and await our chance.

Folks have to realize that 2-14 in our last 16 SEC games matters a whole lot more to recruits than a Natl Champ 20 years ago. We have to build rather than BS our way out of this.

 

[spyfish007]

1. Simply get to a minimum of 6 wins a year while being competitive in most every game. This was the level Dooley had problems attaining. Jones needed the Miracle at Columbia to get there in Year 2. Many Vol fans deny this 1st level is part of the rebuild.
2. Get to 8-9 wins a year, with almost no losses to teams below us to teams in the recruiting rankings. We are competitive in all but 1-2 games a year, and beat Florida on a regular basis. We’ve only been at this level once since 2007. 2016 was a mirage where we were lucky to win 8 regular season games.
3. Get to 10+ regular season games and routinely stomp teams that have had the upper hand of late. At this level, we beat Georgia or Alabama from time to time and compete for division or conference championships.

As we climb to the next level, the level of recruits and ability to flip becomes much easier. A lot of fans are bummed we couldn’t grab someone that Bama or Georgia had committed but we are just not there yet. It’s actually a good sign we held onto our commits through ESD.

I like your idea about levels but I think of them differently and not in terms of win loss record. I think win and losses are going to be on a cycle and +/- 1 from an expected total for a given year.

Here is what I think of levels:

0) Bad times, blow outs, player turn over, rarely have NFL players. Coaches changing over frequently. Rarely makes a bowl game. Recruiting is up and down. Player effort is up to individuals. Injuries really impact team. Players do not look prepared in games.

1) Every sophomore to senior has a full year of strength and conditioning and understands the basics of your system. Usually 1 to 2 years. You should be bowl eligible and occasionally pull the upset. Getting blown out by an opponent is still possible.

2) Recruiting success by landing more blue chip recruits. Solid 2 deep roster, fewer holes. Underdog in fewer games and being blown out is decreasing in likelihood. Pulling an upset of a top ten team is definitely possible and expected.

3) Championship calibre teams are coming every few years and winning SEC and NCAA occasionally. Does not lose very often. Recruiting and player development are very high. Putting players into NFL. Rarely getting blown out, maybe 1 time every few years. Roster is down or has gaps only occasionally every 3 to 4 years.

4) Competes every year for championships and wins occasionally. No roster gaps ever and always has a pipeline of recruits with high level player development. Many NFL players.

5). Win every year and always signs the best players. Program has no fatal flaws.