The rebuild will be in 3 stages

[savannahfan]

I came back and read this again, and I am not sold on your theory. CJP appears not be that kind of coach, I think he expects to get in the 8-9 wins next year and better the year after. He doesn't come across as the most patient person as it relates to Wins vs. Losses..........he is a players coach, but his expectations are just as high as Saban's. It wouldn't shock me if UT was 3-4 game better than last year.

I would he "hopes to" too. I would hate for any coach to settle for less than he hope can be achieved..

 

[volsportsfan]

Can we get a mod in here to suggest that 8 wins next year is not the standard. Sometimes, I think a mod can help reduce the expectations somewhat, to a more reasonable level. 6 to 7 wins, and this depending on injuries, is subject to change, should be the standard imo.

 

[Devo182]

I have a similar theory of "inflection points" that could lead to better recruiting (or worse). But 6 wins is not one of them. It's winning big national games when they present themselves, making a ny6 bowl, and getting to Atlanta.

Remember, next year is likely the last time we can use the "new coach recruiting bump", ie selling lots of playing time and building something. After that, we have to sell winning. Which means 2020 is the first major inflection point. Hey, look, it's the same as Butch's - year 3 vs Oklahoma. Gotta win that big national game and hopefully win the East. 1 of 2 might be enough.

The next inflection point is either winning the East or making a NY6 bowl by year 4. This is another CBJ inflection point he FAILED.

CBJ lost to ou in year 3, failed to win the east, and failed to make a ny6 bowl. Due to failed inflection points, recruiting dropped off in a big way and led to where we are now. If CJP can win these inflection points, recruiting will go up.

 

[Devo182]

I came back and read this again, and I am not sold on your theory. CJP appears not be that kind of coach, I think he expects to get in the 8-9 wins next year and better the year after. He doesn't come across as the most patient person as it relates to Wins vs. Losses..........he is a players coach, but his expectations are just as high as Saban's. It wouldn't shock me if UT was 3-4 game better than last year.

Whatever he expects or hopes for hardly matters. He also seems to put way more stock in recruiting than Xs and Os, which would point to a longer rebuild. Mullen is all Xs and Os and he won right away. We wont do that, but long term ceiling might be higher.

 

[vol_sec]

Just from a talent coming in, Kentucky brings in about 4--4stars a year, Missouri 2-3, and Vandy 1. UT, UF, and South Carolina on the next tier with up to 50% 4--star, then UGA almost all 4 or 5 stars.

From this, with good development over the next few years, UT should beat Kentucky, Missouri, Vandy on a regular basis, split UF and South Carolina, and lose to UGA on a regular basis. Adding Bama, that should be a consistent 3 loses a year at this level. So around 9-3 should be the expectation, 10-2 overachieving, 8-4 underachieving (depending on the other west team UT plays).

Of course this can change if the recruiting over the next several years moves up to the UGA or Bama level.

 

[Jack Burton]

If we cant get to 8 wins next season with that schedule, I will seriously doubt that Pruitt is the guy.

I don’t think we have the depth and experience at OL or DL to make this happen even with this class.

 

[FlyFishnVol]

Whatever he expects or hopes for hardly matters. He also seems to put way more stock in recruiting than Xs and Os, which would point to a longer rebuild. Mullen is all Xs and Os and he won right away. We wont do that, but long term ceiling might be higher.

Devo, I will expect a reply back from you next December stating "you were right, I was wrong", CJP understands Xs and Os all to well, and Mullen had way more talent and I am going to guess they were in better physical condition to handle the grueling schedule of a SEC Team, CJP did not inherit anything remotely close. The other SEC coaches (except Auburn and Ky) exploited UT's weakness......enough said. CJP will improve both side of the ball......i am betting on it.

 

[OrangeByBirth]

I refuse to put a number on acceptable wins each year. It is time to quit reaching for mediocrity and start targeting excellence.

 

[Devo182]

I agree! The old saying champions are built on defense still holds true. It may not look that way but when you look at the final score but the team with the best defense usually wins. That score may be 54-52 or some such, but in the end, when looking back, the winners defense just did a little better. I know, I know "but neither defense was any good". But at the end of the year the best teams will usually have one of the better defenses in the country. The way I see it, is like a teacher "grading on a curve" no one learned much, but some did better than others!

Statistical research says offense wins these days, college and nfl. The more you think about it, the old adage may have just been right at the time, because offenses weren't nearly as good. What else would you say when every game was 12-10??

 

[FlyFishnVol]

I don’t think we have the depth and experience at OL or DL to make this happen even with this class.

I agree, I think 8-9 wins is very doable, CJP is a very, very smart coach, he'll have every team scouted and schemed before June, outside any injuries, this team will be ready to set the record straight with wins over Vandy, Missouri, South Carolina,........there is your 8 wins, the 9th will be MSU in Knoxville, but 10 is doable with an upset over Florida or Georgia . I am hoping to be at the MSU game with my Son-in-Law (MSU Grad).....Go Vols!

 

[OrangeByBirth]

Statistical research says offense wins these days, college and nfl. The more you think about it, the old adage may have just been right at the time, because offenses weren't nearly as good. What else would you say when every game was 12-10??

I would say, "I watched a football game instead of a pinball tournament."

 

[LittleVol]

Right now I’ll predict 7-5 next year and in 2020 get to 9-3. Cautiously optimistic in my opinion. Maybe by 2021 we get to 10-2 we will see....

This would be a huge success.

EVERYONE in our division is getting better too.
In my opinon, had Notre Dame played in the SEC East this year, they would have lost 2 games. UGA and Mizzou or UGA and UK

 

[Devo182]

Devo, I will expect a reply back from you next December stating "you were right, I was wrong", CJP understands Xs and Os all to well, and Mullen had way more talent and I am going to guess they were in better physical condition to handle the grueling schedule of a SEC Team, CJP did not inherit anything remotely close. The other SEC coaches (except Auburn and Ky) exploited UT's weakness......enough said. CJP will improve both side of the ball......i am betting on it.

Hey man, I hope we win asap too! I just think, if not, we should have patience, because Pruitt is relying heavily on recruiting better than our opponents, not outscheming them.

Just look at his words - he didn't say he's going to develop and outscheme Bama in the future, he said hes going to overrecruit the current players. That's his mentality, Jimmies and joes, not Xs and Os.

Florida had better talent? Who knows, but each team started from a TERRIBLE 2017 season and Mullen won right away. He turned Franks from horrible to a gutsy winner. Mullen is known as a premier develop and schemer. Hes never needed talent to win. We dont know the same of Pruitt. So far hes won with great talent and lost with little talent.

 

[savannahfan]

Statistical research says offense wins these days, college and nfl. The more you think about it, the old adage may have just been right at the time, because offenses weren't nearly as good. What else would you say when every game was 12-10??

Did you read my last sentence? I did not say anywhere that defenses "rule the roost", only that the best defenses, regardless of how they stack up as it relates to a whole team or trend in the game usually appear as a part of a winning team.

 

[Boston Vol]

Next year should be 7/8 wins, 2020 should be 10+ and competing for the division title.

 

[Bucket18]

Vandy been trying to get past 6 wins a year for 100 years now. It would be better
To hire proven SEC level coaches instead of rolling the dice on hires.

 

[ThreatLevelOrange]

I have a similar theory of "inflection points" that could lead to better recruiting (or worse). But 6 wins is not one of them. It's winning big national games when they present themselves, making a ny6 bowl, and getting to Atlanta.

Remember, next year is likely the last time we can use the "new coach recruiting bump", ie selling lots of playing time and building something. After that, we have to sell winning. Which means 2020 is the first major inflection point. Hey, look, it's the same as Butch's - year 3 vs Oklahoma. Gotta win that big national game and hopefully win the East. 1 of 2 might be enough.

The next inflection point is either winning the East or making a NY6 bowl by year 4. This is another CBJ inflection point he FAILED.

CBJ lost to ou in year 3, failed to win the east, and failed to make a ny6 bowl. Due to failed inflection points, recruiting dropped off in a big way and led to where we are now. If CJP can win these inflection points, recruiting will go up.

Agreed. If you’re not climbing you’re getting stepped on.

 

[Eastknox865]

If we cant get to 8 wins next season with that schedule, I will seriously doubt that Pruitt is the guy.

I don't think you realize how bad the roster is

 

[ThreatLevelOrange]

Vandy been trying to get past 6 wins a year for 100 years now. It would be better
To hire proven SEC level coaches instead of rolling the dice on hires.View attachment 185090

Vandy been trying to get past 6 wins a year for 100 years now. It would be better
To hire proven SEC level coaches instead of rolling the dice on hires.View attachment 185090

Easier said than done. Greg Schiano was the only “proven” HC that wanted this job.

 

[Hacksaw]

This class shows me that CJP has a MUCH better sense of the kind of athlete you need to start with. I think they’ll be a bowl team next year and a legit program in 2-3 years.

Not picking on you, but I don't remember a whole lot of fans complaining about Butch's recruiting classes when they were signed. Maybe they didn't turn-out to be as good as their recruiting rankings suggested at the time, but that's an easy observation to make with the benefit of hindsight. We don't know what this class will be, either. But it's interesting to see all the optimism, especially when you realize that Pruitt really hasn't accomplished anything on the field yet.

 

[VolNExile]

I refuse to put a number on acceptable wins each year. It is time to quit reaching for mediocrity and start targeting excellence.

Which, of course, means that we will have a 10+ season next year, because by golly, if we target something, it will happen right NOW.

Targeting excellence is exactly what was described.

 

[ThreatLevelOrange]

I don't think you realize how bad the roster is

This is my point. The roster has holes, we are years behind in S&C, and our players are used to losing - a lot. The cultural damage will take a long time to correct.

Pruitt can only bring in 25 guys a year and it’s going to take more than 2 years for us to win the East. We haven’t finished in the Top 10 since 2001. But we’re going to do it in the next couple of years?

 

[rickyyrs]

1. Simply get to a minimum of 6 wins a year while being competitive in most every game. This was the level Dooley had problems attaining. Jones needed the Miracle at Columbia to get there in Year 2. Many Vol fans deny this 1st level is part of the rebuild.
2. Get to 8-9 wins a year, with almost no losses to teams below us to teams in the recruiting rankings. We are competitive in all but 1-2 games a year, and beat Florida on a regular basis. We’ve only been at this level once since 2007. 2016 was a mirage where we were lucky to win 8 regular season games.
3. Get to 10+ regular season games and routinely stomp teams that have had the upper hand of late. At this level, we beat Georgia or Alabama from time to time and compete for division or conference championships.

As we climb to the next level, the level of recruits and ability to flip becomes much easier. A lot of fans are bummed we couldn’t grab someone that Bama or Georgia had committed but we are just not there yet. It’s actually a good sign we held onto our commits through ESD.

Let's face it. If Butch Jones did not have Josh Dobbs it would of been alot worse. Now you people know why a guy like Jaylen Hurd left. In the SEC it all starts with a O-line and D-line. Pruitt has been around championship teams. He know what it takes. He will build one here at Tennessee.

 

[JohnnyJava]

Slow, incremental improvement isn't the way it goes when a team hires the right coach. See Bama and Georgia for recent examples.

 

[diehardvolsfan]

I don’t think we have the depth and experience at OL or DL to make this happen even with this class.

7-5 next year would be huge given what we have at the moment. The 2020 class should be great as well and if we get a lot more 4 stars and a few more 5’s then maybe we can expect 9-3 going into 2021...