I tried to post this in the OP but it didn't work.
College Football’s NIL Problem is Self-Inflicted
Lord Dukes de Enfer
8 min read
·
1 day ago
The bubble is really full and close to bursting.
The reality is NIL is here, and it’s not going away. However, for some people, change is hard.
Back in the day (2020 and prior), college football compensated guys to play, sometimes with bags of money, sometimes with cars or toys, and other times with women. Certain groups loved this system. They had mastered it, and they knew how to stay out of trouble and how they could get away with what nefarious games they played.
Usually, it was the boosters who paid the bill for the players. Oklahoma had a local Chevy dealership who would lease cars to star players. And no one in Norman, Oklahoma, cared if a star linebacker paid his lease payment or not for the Corvette he was driving to class. But the boosters controlled this opaque process. Now they don’t.
They are still very important as generating $20mil plus, a year isn’t easy. And the money the SEC/Big 10 schools used to amass to bring in a solid freshman class quietly, isn’t going to get the job done in 2026.
LSU (dominant team before NIL) had the highest-ranked player coming out of high school, Bryce Underwood signed to a
‘letter of intent’, for (reportedly) $1.5mil/per season. When Michigan’s NIL company came up with $3m per year for 4 seasons. The highest amount paid to a college athlete to that point. Bryce decided not to enroll in the land of Crawfish and became a “Michigan Man”.
So a bunch of rich A-Holes screwed a bunch of other rich A-Holes, so what?
Because these kids now have agents, the days of giving a kid and a few $1,000 a week are over. Because there was an agent in the middle, Dave Portnoy (Barstool Sports) and Larry Ellison (Oracle) led a group that guaranteed the $12m or so to Underwood. LSU’s boosters, who previously have operated in a vacuum, aren’t getting the best overall players to come to Baton Rouge anymore without having a billionaire or two who really likes the Tigers.
Because the system has changed so much, so fast, the SEC & Big 10 legacy teams are losing their advantage in clandestine player purchasing. If those schools could come up with good money to pay kids in 2015, they will find some money in 2025. But giving a kid a car or paying mom and dad’s mortgage isn’t all that expensive in the grand scheme of things. And things are going to get expensive.
Not only have the amounts increased, but access to players, agents, and schools is out of the dark alleys and ‘old boys’ networks and are now being tracked by 100’s of internet fans. Yes, the numbers have gone up, but 5 years ago you couldnt get into that game easily. You had to have a high school coach or “friend of the family” who the boosters could deal with. Now, a rich donor who loves the University of New Mexico can make a few calls and Viola! New Mexico is a big-time program if he likes.
Maybe I’m naive, but I don’t think kids were making a million dollars a season before NIL. The following is what was reported last December (2024): what teams were paying players for the 2025 season. As I’m writing this mid-December 2025, the NIL numbers below are a year old. But you can bet the numbers didn’t go down.
I also show what the investment brought the NIL spenders with the team’s current ranking in the playoff rankings, 2025 record, and a note about the team.
20. Florida State Seminoles: $10 million
5–7 Didn’t want to pay the massive buyout to fire the coach.
19. Oregon Ducks: $10.6 million
#5 in Playoff rankings, 11–1, Gets to beat James Madison in the first round of the playoff
18. Kentucky Wildcats: $11.2 million
5–7, fired head coach
17. Arkansas Razorbacks: $11.5 million
2–10, fired head coach
16. Auburn Tigers: $11.58 million,
5–7, fired head coach
15. Tennessee Volunteers: $11.6 million
8–4 Star QB left the team in May, so the coach did a good job to hold it all together.
14. Virginia Cavaliers: $12.7 million
#19 10–3 NOT in the playoff
13. Michigan State Spartans: $13 million
4–6, fired head coach
12. Indiana Hoosiers: $13.6 million
#1, 12–0 Playoff bye week.
11. Penn State Nittany Lions: $13.7 million
6–6, fired coach mid-season
10. Oklahoma Sooners ($14.8M)
#8, 10–2, hosting Alabama in the playoff
9. Clemson Tigers ($15.2M)
Unranked, 7–5
8. Florida Gators ($15.8M)
4–8, fired head coach
7. Alabama Crimson Tide ($15.9M)
#9, 9–3 record, and playing at Oklahoma in the playoffs
6. Michigan Wolverines ($16.3M)
#18 with a 9–3 record and NOT in the playoffs. After the season fired their coach for an unrelated reason.
5. Texas A&M Aggies ($17.2M)
#7, with an 11–1 record and a home playoff game
4. Georgia Bulldogs ($18.3M)
#3 with an 11–1 record and a playoff bye week
3. LSU Tigers ($20.1M)
Unranked, 7–5, fired the head coach, whom they replaced with Lane Kiffin, who is an unquestioned winner, but also perhaps the worst person in college football. Kiffin’s deal is $13mil a year and NIL spending of $25mil on top of $91,000,000.00 guaranteed.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes ($20.2M)
#2 in the playoff rankings with an 11–1 record and a playoff week #1 bye week.
1. Texas Longhorns ($22.2M)
#13 in playoff rankings with a 9–3 record and NOT in the playoffs.
wikicomms
We learned a few things this season about NIL and the future of college athletics…
#1 The economics have changed, and it appears the richest schools with the least disciplined alumni will flourish.
#2 You are going to need to spend big money or you really have no chance. Seven of the 20 top spenders made the 12-team playoff, with three teams not on that list, but were on multiple other up-to-date lists due to late spending (Texas Tech, Miami and Ole Miss). Rounding out the top 10. The other two teams are from smaller conferences and both spent less and are going to get destroyed by bigger schools.
#3 If they spend, you’d better win. In the film version of “Glengarry, Glen Ross,” Alec Baldwin offers a results-oriented sales meeting to his sales force, where he breaks down how things work -
“1st place, a brand new Cadillac, 2nd place a set of steak knives, 3rd place, F-you, you are fired.”
You’ll notice the trend on that list is a 3 tier outcome for the coaches and to some extent the AD’s of the top NIL schools. Tier #1 — Make the playoffs. Tier #2 Come very close to making the playoffs. Tier #3 F- You, you are fired!.
The results to this point are pretty clear: the NCAA should have worked out a system to compensate players long ago. And even now as schools that used to make millions with their football programs are starting to lose money, the NCAA still has its head in the sand.
The NCAA’s unwillingness to make these athletes employees (because then they will unionize and negotiate as a group and the NCAA can’t have that) is leading to unchecked spending.
Five seasons ago the NCAA could have made the players employees and capped compensation at $5,000,000.00 per team. Everyone would have been ecstatic.
NIL Year
Below is the Avg. a team from the big 4 conferences paid in NIL since NIL became a thing.
Year 1 — 2021–22
$1.5M — $3M
Year 2 — 2022–23
$5M — $8M (+200%)
Year 3 — 2023–24
$9M — $12M (+60%)
Year 4 — 2024–25
$13M — $16M (+35%)
Year 5 — 2025–26
$20.5M (+40%)
It’s unsustainable. But there is another reality. The schools must have lied for decades as to the real profit numbers.
Twenty years ago when Alabama was winning titles, they said “athletics lose money”. Some people believed them; those of us with a brain knew better. And technically, the NIL money isn’t coming from the schools until 2026, however, the schools are hiring additional staff to manage the NIL realities going forward. Also the schools and athletic departments are facing additional pressure if that is even possible.
The booster who put up the money expects to win. The days when a coach would almost always stay until his contract ended, being given time to build a program up, has been replaced with, “need a quarterback, poach a 3rd year Jr from a non-Power 4 program”. Smaller schools are helpless to stop teams from Power 4 programs. You think Sacramento St is going to match an NIL offer from Iowa or UCLA?
I am happy the players (who were basically slaves to the NCAA before NIL) have leverage and are getting paid. The one thing that bothers me, though, is how this affects other sports.
The excuse, “football pays for everything else,” is sorta BS as it costs a lot and other sports are relatively inexpensive compared to the traveling circus a football team is. The highest paid employee of almost every state in the USA is the state’s school’s football coach. That was before the largest building owned by the state (often the football stadium) is maintained and secured. The average road game requires transport of over a 100 players, coaches, endless equipment and that’s before the now $20m necessary to field an average team.
As this continues to be mismanaged, it’s going to get more and more upside down.
Lane Kiffin got $91million guaranteed, but the coach LSU fired had a buyout of $54million. And LSU is a state school. Don’t be surprised if other opportunities start to vanish from the school if they have a couple more down years. The in-state tuition at LSU is just under $12,500. With a student fee base of roughly $324m a year, and with Lane costing $13m, the buyout of $54m and $25m guaranteed for players, that’s 28% of the entire student fee base at LSU next year.
I know the buyout is going to be amortised over a couple seasons and part or all of the NIL may not fall on the school, but you can see the sun coming up over college football and it looks more like a nuclear winter than a nice fall morning.
- **FOOTNOTE***
- Below is a (accurate as of September 2025) list of the states where a football coach is the highest paid state employee.
The “Football States” List
In these states, the head football coach at a major public university (usually the flagship or the primary land-grant university) holds the top salary spot.
- Alabama (Kalen DeBoer, Alabama)
- Arizona (Kenny Dillingham, ASU or Brent Brennan, Arizona)
- Arkansas (Sam Pittman, Arkansas)
- California (Deshaun Foster, UCLA or Justin Wilcox, Cal)
- Note: While California has highly paid surgeons, the UC system football coaches currently top the list (~$4M–$7M).
- Colorado (Deion Sanders, Colorado)
- Florida (Billy Napier, Florida or Mike Norvell, FSU)
- Georgia (Kirby Smart, Georgia)
- Idaho (Spencer Danielson, Boise State)
- Illinois (Bret Bielema, Illinois)
- Indiana (Curt Cignetti, Indiana)
- Note: Historically a “basketball state,” the new football contract (~$4M+) now rivals or exceeds the basketball coach’s salary.
- Iowa (Kirk Ferentz, Iowa)
- Kentucky (Mark Stoops, Kentucky)
- Note: Football coach Mark Stoops (~$9M) earns significantly more than new basketball coach Mark Pope (~$5.5M).
- Louisiana (Brian Kelly, LSU)
- Maryland (Mike Locksley, Maryland)
- Michigan (Sherrone Moore, Michigan)
- Minnesota (P.J. Fleck, Minnesota)
- Mississippi (Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss)
- Missouri (Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri)
- Nebraska (Matt Rhule, Nebraska)
- Nevada (Barry Odom, UNLV)
- New Jersey (Greg Schiano, Rutgers)
- New Mexico (Bronco Mendenhall, New Mexico)
- North Carolina (Mack Brown, UNC)
- Ohio (Ryan Day, Ohio State)
- Oklahoma (Brent Venables, Oklahoma)
- Oregon (Dan Lanning, Oregon)
- Pennsylvania (James Franklin, Penn State)
- South Carolina (Shane Beamer, South Carolina)
- Tennessee (Josh Heupel, Tennessee)
- Texas (Steve Sarkisian, Texas)
- Utah (Kyle Whittingham, Utah)
- Virginia (Brent Pry, Virginia Tech)
- Washington (Jedd Fisch, Washington)
- West Virginia (Neal Brown, West Virginia)
- Wisconsin (Luke Fickell, Wisconsin)
- Wyoming (Jay Sawvel, Wyoming)
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