Magic8Vol
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I was listening to a sports show this week and they were asking listeners if they thought we had a difference maker at QB on the team this year & if so what kind of effect he can have on the W-L record. My immediate thought was if Pruitt is who we hope he is then I don't think we need a difference maker at QB. This made me wonder about average vs above average coaches and the effect they can have on a team. Until last years debacle I believe that CBJ would be considered average to slightly below avg depending on your definition. For me average is a .500 record. So I went back over the last 5 years & ran the numbers counting only sec games. 40 SEC games should be 20-20 record. Factoring in playing AL every year & you could argue 15-25 may still be considered average to below average. CBJ was 14-26 in SEC play over that time.
I then looked at each SEC series over the last 5 years. If CBJ was for arguments sake average and CJP is above average how would that look for the final score of each series.
CBJs teams in SEC play over his 5 years averaged 25 pts per game & gave up 29.8 points per game. This past season scewed the numbers making the differential much higher. If CJP is the defensive coach we believe he is then if we can be just average on offense & maintain 25ppg but be 15% better on defense that would bring the defensive ppg to 25.3 vs the SEC.
By each series it would look like this. The last 5 years avg scores vs each opp. In ( ) would be the opponents avg if we improve 15% TY.
2013 to 2017
UT 22 ppg vs FL 24.6 ppg (20.9)
UT 27.8 ppg vs GA 33.8 ppg * (28.7)
UT 25 ppg vs SC 25 ppg (21.2)
UT 24.9 ppg vs MO 30.1ppg * (25.6)
UT 40.1 ppg vs UK 23.1ppg (19.6)
UT 29.8 ppg vs VDY 28.6 ppg (24.3)
UT 12 ppg vs AL 36.3 ppg (30.8)
OTH SEC west UT 18.9 ppg v 37.6ppg (32)
* last years blowout games severely scewed the averages vs GA & MO. In fact, before last year we were in the plus on total points scored against both teams but the blowouts to each put us on the negative side for the 5 year average.
Obviously none of this means anything but it does give me hope that if CJP is a better than average coach we may begin to get on the right side of the scores against FL GA KY MO VDY & SC on a regular basis.
I then looked at each SEC series over the last 5 years. If CBJ was for arguments sake average and CJP is above average how would that look for the final score of each series.
CBJs teams in SEC play over his 5 years averaged 25 pts per game & gave up 29.8 points per game. This past season scewed the numbers making the differential much higher. If CJP is the defensive coach we believe he is then if we can be just average on offense & maintain 25ppg but be 15% better on defense that would bring the defensive ppg to 25.3 vs the SEC.
By each series it would look like this. The last 5 years avg scores vs each opp. In ( ) would be the opponents avg if we improve 15% TY.
2013 to 2017
UT 22 ppg vs FL 24.6 ppg (20.9)
UT 27.8 ppg vs GA 33.8 ppg * (28.7)
UT 25 ppg vs SC 25 ppg (21.2)
UT 24.9 ppg vs MO 30.1ppg * (25.6)
UT 40.1 ppg vs UK 23.1ppg (19.6)
UT 29.8 ppg vs VDY 28.6 ppg (24.3)
UT 12 ppg vs AL 36.3 ppg (30.8)
OTH SEC west UT 18.9 ppg v 37.6ppg (32)
* last years blowout games severely scewed the averages vs GA & MO. In fact, before last year we were in the plus on total points scored against both teams but the blowouts to each put us on the negative side for the 5 year average.
Obviously none of this means anything but it does give me hope that if CJP is a better than average coach we may begin to get on the right side of the scores against FL GA KY MO VDY & SC on a regular basis.
