Happy thanksgiving big blue nation! Lots of big games around the country this weekend, but our eyes are on one that won't get much national attention. Kentucky vs. Tennessee. Yet again, UK seems to have a golden opportunity to end the most humiliating streak in college football. Kentucky hasn't won a game vs. the big orange since 1984. Over the years, Kentucky has had a number of opportunities to end the skid (8 losses by less than a touchdown). OT heartbreakers. Heartwrenching fumbles. Orange goal line stands. You name it and we've probably seen it. This season, the Cats head to Knoxville facing one of the worst Tennessee teams in the last 20 years. It's still an important game for the Vols though. A win gives them a bowl appearance. It's also a big game for the boys in blue. In addition to breaking the streak, Kentucky could still qualify for the Gator Bowl with a win and a break or two elsewhere. It's also an opportunity for these seniors to guarantee that they'll never suffer through a losing season as a Wildcat (also their last chance to knock off rocky top). Despite some disappointing setbacks this season, UK is a big win away from being able to claim the 2010 campaign a success. Breaking long losing streaks against Spurrier, South Carolina, and Tennessee plus UK's annual win over U of L would give the program good momentum going forward. Should be another UK/UT barn burner.
Kentucky offense vs. Tennessee defense: Advantage Kentucky
This should be the healthiest Kentucky has been in a couple of months. Two weeks of preparation will hopefully give them SOME kind of edge. Senior QB Mike Hartline has been the biggest surprise in the league this season (IMO). Hartline will surpass the 3,000 yard mark on Saturday, a number few gave him a chance to hit. The Cats trio of stud WR's has been fun to watch, and they'll be a handful for UT's mediocre secondary. Cobb, Matthews, and King have combined for 149 receptions and 21 touchdown grabs. The Vols will also have to contend with one of the best backs in UK history. Derrick Locke has rushed for 719 yards this season while catching 26 passes for another 251 yards. Tennessee's defense (ranked 71st in the nation) will face one of the more well balanced offenses in the country (20th in passing, 43rd in rushing). The Vols defensive line is average at best, so this is a matchup that Kentucky SHOULD enjoy a lot of success with. The BIG, BIG, BIG key for Kentucky this weekend is turnovers. UK most likely would have knocked off Mississippi and Mississippi State (and possibly Georgia) had they not turned the ball over at such a ridiculous pace. Take care of the football this weekend, and the offense will put up 400+ yards and 30+ points. Can this offense play ONE big road game without making crucial errors though? So far, they haven't. They're certainly due. Overall, I think UK has an edge in both the trenches and with UK's skill guys vs. UT's back seven. Again, if UK avoids self inflicted wounds, they'll put up big numbers.
Kentucky defense vs. Tennessee offense: Advantage Tennessee
For much of the season, UK's defense has been pretty good for one half and horrid in the other. Against South Carolina, Auburn, and Vanderbilt, Kentucky was dominated in the first half. In the final two quarters though, they allowed those three teams a combined ten points. This weekend, I would LOVE to see UK play one good half of football defensively. They'll be facing an awfully young Tennessee offense. Their o-line ranks 114th in the nation in sacks allowed (it's a very young unit). The Vols start a freshman at quarterback (Tyler Bray). Bray has brought life to the UT offense against the poor part of their schedule. Good news for Steve Brown's unit, Bray isn't really a dual threat. WR's Moore and Jones will be a handful for Kentucky's secondary. Assuming UK's defensive line plays like they have all season, there will be spurts in the game when Bray has all day to throw with man coverage. Controlling UT's running game hasn't been difficult for most opponents this season (95th in the nation), but UK stops literally nobody. Poole ran for 99 yards last week against Vandy. I'd be ecstatic if UK holds him to that number. The one aspect of this matchup that stands out most to me is UT's o-line. It's a young group that Kentucky SHOULD have some success against. Then again, UK's defense looked NAIA-ish against Vanderbilt (1st half). The Cats have one of the best LB's in the nation (Danny Trevathan), but the others are young and have mostly struggled. UK's front seven vs. UT's o-front should be a relatively even matchup, but Brown typically finds a way to allow opponents to run wild. Best guess, both units have periods of success. That's the way most UK games have gone this season.
Special Teams: Kentucky
The Vols rank near the bottom of college football in punt returns. They're 92nd in KO returns. UK will have Cobb and Locke returning kicks this weekend, two of the best in college football. UK has been a slightly better punting team than the Vols. UT has the better place kicker (Lincoln). Bottom line, if one team makes a huge play in this area, it will likely be Kentucky.
Prediction.....Kentucky 34 Tennessee 27.....I have no doubt at all that UK wins this game as long as they don't give UT points. At UF, Hartline had a huge INT returned for a TD. UK gave Ole Miss three scoring drives of less than 15 yards. UK gave the football away four times in Starkville. Those types of errors are tough to overcome for any team, much less UK. Against Tennessee, Kentucky will avoid those mistakes, put up big numbers on offense, and FINALLY, beat the Vols!!!