(4) Los Angeles Clippers versus (5) Memphis Grizzlies
Projection: L.A. Clippers win 79.4 percent of the time
When the L.A. Clippers have the ball: Don't expect Los Angeles to be Lob City during the course of this series. The Grizzlies' stout defense will take away transition opportunities and force the Clippers to play in the half court. That's not necessarily a terrible thing. According to Synergy Sports, the Clippers rate better in the half court (fifth among all teams in points per play) than transition (12th). (They do score more points in transition, because teams are typically better in transition.) A slow-paced game does mean relying heavily on Chris Paul to create out of the pick-and-roll. Memphis will counter with the league's top perimeter defender, Tony Allen, and also has Mike Conley and Tayshaun Prince to throw at Paul at times. Paul's best scoring game (24 points) actually came in the Grizzlies' lone head-to-head win. But he controlled the game with 12 points and 12 assists last Saturday.
When Memphis has the ball: The action will all be in the frontcourt, but that doesn't mean it will necessarily be down low. When the starting lineups are on the floor, the Grizzlies' best option may be putting Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan in a series of pick-and-rolls to try to free Mike Conley to penetrate. Zach Randolph should have an advantage in the post, too -- especially if the Clippers finish with their smaller frontcourt of Griffin and Lamar Odom, who's their best pick-and-roll defender. The other player to watch for Memphis is sixth man Jerryd Bayless, who has picked up his production playing alongside Conley since the Rudy Gay trade. Bayless went from 12.6 points per 36 minutes before the All-Star break to 16.7 thereafter.
Prediction: Surprised the Clippers are such heavy favorites? Believe it or not, this method would have given them the edge even if Memphis held home-court advantage. Why? First, the Clippers had the superior point differential, finishing third in the league, ahead of both Denver and San Antonio at +6.5 points per game. While you might chalk that up to the Clippers' December streak, they're +5.8 since the All-Star break -- better than Memphis (+5.2). The Clippers also won the season series 3-1, including last Saturday's win at FedExForum that served as the unofficial game one of this series, and last year's playoff matchup. One of the West's top five teams was guaranteed to be eliminated early, and it looks like it's going to be the Grizzlies.
Clippers in 6.