For some of us around here, we said a while back that us winning so soon after 2007 was a gift and a curse. We got to bounce back and were a good team again. Happy days. But it caused us to miss out on top tier talent in the top of the draft that we needed.
Look at the Niners, Seahawks, Rams, Browns or Bills. The first two are elite teams, the Rams are good up and comers and the last two are solid teams on the rise. All had multiple premium picks that are on the team contributing heavily over the course of multiple seasons.
San Fran had 6 top 11 picks since 05, when they had their "Matt Ryan" moment with taking Alex Smith.
Seahawks had 4 since 2009, while also adding a first round stud in Lynch, a player I was confused why we didn't pursue, but that's hindsight. They didn't have a "Matt Ryan moment", but I think 2009 was fitting because it was a top five pick, two years removed from their prime in 2007, and heading for rebuilding.
The Rams had three top 2 picks from 2008-2010. They then added two #14 picks and a #8 pick. That's 6 picks in the top half of the draft. Their "Matt Ryan moment" occurred in 2010.
The Browns, going back to 2007, have dealt with inept leadership and bad luck with QBs, but have 4 top 10 picks, traded one away to position themselves for 2 first round picks next year, something they will have had 3 times including next year. They tried their "Matt Ryan moment" twice with Quinn and Weeden, but neither worked. I think they will try again this year, but they have built a really good defense and offense with sub par QB play as a result of the top picks.
The Bills have had a top 12 pick every single year since 2006 until this past year, where they still picked #16. If not for trading Lynch and letting Whitner go, they'd have 7 top 16 picks playing for them. They finally had their "Matt Ryan moment" this year with Manuel, giving him a good defense and running game to lean on and build with. They may not amount to anything, but imagine if our team had a top 12 pick every year for even just a few years.
The Falcons, since 2008, have only had 1 organic top 10 pick in Matt Ryan. The other was of course Julio. Since 98, we've only had 4 top 10 picks. That's why we've kind of floundered. We've been the Hawks of the NFL since the Super Bowl. We got a QB in 2001 that made us competitive and lost him to crime. Got a QB in 2008 that made us competitive until we weren't.
Saying all of that to say that I can't really fault TD or Smitty. I know that's not popular, but it's an opinion. After 2008, the mission went from rebuilding to aiming for a championship too soon. As a result, we made moves that suggested we weren't far off, when in actuality, we just overachieved in 2008. Fast forward to 2010 and we go 13-3 on an easy schedule and get demolished in the playoffs. This is two years removed from Ryan's rookie year. Highest pick was Spoon at #19 in this timeframe. Obviously, we make the move for Julio and it would have been a brilliant move had we been able to move the ball ten yards just last year.
But now, all of that "postponing the inevitable" is catching up to us. We begged Tony back and signed SJax and Osi with short term vision. This is on Blank. He was bloodlusting over a SB, rather than letting his generals build a better team. The smart money would have went with Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, who signed for very cheap in Seattle, and drafted a young RB and let Tony go and not added SJax and Osi in hopes that we pull a Ravens and Niners and get back to the NFCCG.
It's not that we "neglected" the lines. We just placed priority on positions that provide immediate impacts. Skill players do that quicker in the draft than lineman. TD was obviously given a mandate by Blank to win and win soon. They did that. They put resources into positions that could get them returns/wins. It damnnear worked in 2012. The lines weren't to blame for it not working. It was turnovers. The offense was literally unstoppable until Roddy's slip and Ryan's fumble.
This is nothing but a resetting that naturally occurs. Look at the Giants. Won the SB in 2007, but had a down year two years later, which netted them JPP at #15. Kenny Vaccaro went #15 this year. I think Vaccaro and Moore would be a phenomenal pair, but we'd never have that chance without a down year. We need to clean up the roster and finally settle in for the long haul. I place the blame on Blank before Smitty and TD. Blank needed ammo for a new stadium and he struck while the iron was hot. Now that that is out of the way, I think there will be less pressure ironically, since we see this team is on the downswing. Blank has to obviously see we need to retool and give them space to do it.
Right now, we have no choice but to address the lines. We have our corners of the future, our safeties are going nowhere, neither is Roddy, Julio or HD, our RBs are the same and so is our QB. That leaves OL, DL, LB and TE needing upgrading in the near future, with FS as the next one if Decoud doesn't right his ship. Over a two year period, which we already started the overhaul of the D, I think it can be done. Next year, we will be a 9-7/10-6 team, hopefully missing the playoffs, and picking in the teens again. If we make the playoffs, it will be nothing but 2008 all over again.
What I would do to fix the issues is start with cutting Nic, Reynolds and Samuel at the end of the year. With the $3.5MM carry over from this year and the current cap room for next year at about $8MM, we will have $11.5MM in space. Add in the money saved from these cuts and we have about $21MM in space. Of the pending FAs, the only ones I'd bring back are Peters, Coffman and Babs. McClain (RFA), Cone and Davis (ERFAs) would be back on cheap deals. The others are very expendable. I would also extend Roddy through 2017 (age: 35 season). That would leave us with a good bit to get a couple of players who could help us in the long run.
Right now, this team is in transition and will take two years at least to correct.
