The line UT by 2

#2
#2
If "they" say you get three points for being at home...doesn't that give UGA a one point advantage over us???
 
#3
#3
GA favored by only 2? I would have thought it would have been more....like 6.
 
#5
#5
actually, lemme think about that...

if tenn is a 3 pt favorite, that means they figure the game is essentially even money, with tennessee winning straight up ONLY because they're at home..

tenn as a 2 pt favorite tells me that "they" think UGA wins straight up.
 
#8
#8
In the AP, UT is unranked (out of 44 teams receiving votes) and GA is #11.

The point spread makes no sense.
 
#9
#9
It makes perfect sense because a point spread has nothing to do with who is predicted to win the game.
 
#11
#11
A teams rankings in the polls has nothing to do with the point spread other than if it would mean the public would be on a team because they are ranked high. IOW, USC's point spreads are usually a little higher than the lines maker really thinks it should be because the public will be on USC because they are #1.


The odds makers basically have their own power rankings that they start with. They add around 3pts for home field advantage. They adjust based on injuries or other things that could come into play. They then adjust the line based on who they think the money will come in on because their goal is to get even money on both sides of the bet.

They make their money off the juice. They do not want to gamble. They want the guaranteed money they get when the bets are 50-50% on each side of the bet. If 70% of the money is on one side then the bookie is gambling because he will lose his butt if the 70% team wins and he will make a fortune if the 30% team wins.

Here is why they want equal money on both sides. I place a $100 bet on TN -2 -110 which means I am risking $110 to win $100. Scum of the earth GA fan places a bet on GA +2 -110 which is again risking $110 to win 100. Unless it is a TN win by 2 points then one side will win. If TN wins by 21pts then I get my $100 and the Georgia punk loses his $110 meaning that the bookie makes $10 off this scenario.


Just a general example of how the tenn line may have played out so far:

Odds maker has GA favored by 4pts according to his power rankings (he thinks GA is 4pts better on a neutral field). He gives TN 3pts for home field making the line GA -1 (he thinks GA will win this game by 1pt). He then adjusts the line 3 more points making it UT -2 because he knows that all the UT homers will be pounding this game as they do every week. If a lot of money comes in on either team making the percentage move too far away from 50% they will move the line accordingly.


That is generally how it works
 
#13
#13
...and the dealers are watched by the floor men, the floor men are watched by the pit bosses, the pit bosses are watched by the casino manager, I'm watching the casino managers, and the eye in the sky.... is watching us all."
 
#14
#14
AllVols said:
All that makes my head spin.
Click to expand...

It's just a way of saying they put out the line to try and get a 50/50 split of the bets (half for UT & half for UGA) and then collect the juice. It's really overused by fans on both sides.

You can also watch the line throughout the week to tell where the money is going.
 
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