You only need 270 to be President. He won 365 last time. Even if he loses the following that he won last time: North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Florida (27), Wisconsin (10), and Michigan (17). He would still have 283.
Obama has to split these four states to win Florida, Michigan, Penn, and Ohio (all of which he won last time). Any 2 of those 4 and he wins, I like those odds.
Disclaimer: I'm not saying he's a great president by any means, just that his defeat is not as imminent as most believe.
that's if you believe the polls. i don't. i think he's in trouble in several places and several states (like north carolina) are a lost cause this time around.
i don't look at polls. they can be manipulated and framed.
i look at where a campaign is spending money. i look at whether candidates running for election are campaigning with the individual (in this case, obama). i look at ads people run and see if they associate themselves with obama. etc, etc, etc.
so, as an example. this recall election in wisconsin. do you see obama anywhere near wisconsin to help out? if his presence helped, he'd be there.
we have a democrat senator in florida running for re-election. i'll be anxious to see if he is anywhere near obama or biden when they make a campaign stop in florida.
i can continue, but since this is not a political thread, i will stop with the following.
florida, nc, and va are going to be red again in november.
the midwest is what will decide the election. michigan, wisconsin, ohio, pennsylvania. these states went red in 2010 and i believe they will be red in 2012.