I know readers have been waiting for my expert opinion, and I've been waiting until the eve of the announcement to give it out. This insight is based on countless hours of perusing message boards to determine who has inside sources and who does not - I can tell you, no one has sources now that Sheriff Dooley is in town.
So, I've decided that only my years of following the sport of football and my keen insight will need to be the source of the answer. So here goes, in the order of rumor:
Randy Shannon
Unemployed
Why he will come to Tennessee: He's unemployed. He needs a job, and no one thinks that he is capable of being a head coach, but that he is a great DC.
Why he will not come to Tennessee: He thinks he should be a head coach, but if he is going to be a coordinator then (a) it needs to pay head coach levels, and (b) it needs to be in Miami.
Kevin Steele
Former Clemson Defensive Coordinator
Why he will come to Tennessee: There is strong evidence that Tennessee has made a decision on their coordinator tonight. Can the timing of Steele's dismissal from Clemson "to pursue other opportunities" be a coincidence? I mean, Steele is not linked to any other job in the country other than the Volunteers. Steele was Dooleys #1 choice two years ago for the DC position, he is a well respected recruiter, and Dooley has been in contact with him during this search.
Why he won't come to Tennessee: Simply, Steele played us two years ago to get a big raise from Clemson, and there are rumors that he was doing it again this year. Fool me once ... well, you know the rest.
Sal Sunseri
OLB Coach at Alabama
Why he will come to Tennessee: Sunseri had a few short-lived and questionable years as a DC a long time ago for small colleges. Since then, he has established himself as a respectable LB coach in the NFL and at Alabama. He is a hot coaching prospect and a strong recruiter ... if he wants to get back in the DC saddle again, then this is going to be his best near-term opportunity. The Vols are fairly well-stocked on defense (not like Alabama, mind you, but better than many SEC teams), and he will likely be offered a guaranteed 3-year 800,000 contract. Even if Dooley were to not be retained after the 2012 season, Sunseri will not lose.
Why he will not come to Tennessee: His son plays for Alabama and they just won the NC together ... there is the possibility that they can do it again next year. Sharing such experiences are priceless. Added to that, Saban is trying to keep him on and there is the possibility that Dooley is offering a DC in waiting role, should Kirby Smart leave. DC for Alabama? Success there is as sure as Fulmer liking doughnuts.
Buddy Green
Navy Defensive Coordinator
Why he will come to Tennessee: Coach Green is a journeyman with years of experience as a DC, and there is simply the matter of more money to be had at Tennessee. But, how much more? He's making something like $500,000 as the Navy DC, and at best I would imagine that Dooley would only offer him $650.
Why he will not come to Tennessee: The speed of recruiting and coaching at Navy is horse-n-buggy ... in fact, you don't recruit because guys just get appointments to the academy. The speed of recruiting and coaching in the SEC is race car. Does Coach Green really go from one to the other for $150,000 more a year? Also, does Dooley really hire guys these days who don't like recruiting (he's getting rid of the lazy recruiters). Green likes Annapolis, and he has absolutely no connections to Dooley or Knoxville ... other than he went to the World's Fair in '81.
Pat Narduzzi
Michigan State Defensive Coordinator
Why he will come to Tennessee: We know that there has been some contact between the Vols and Narduzzi, and we know that he was interviewing with Texas A&M for their DC position in Texas on 1/7. Where was Dooley? He was in Louisiana (next door) ... hmmm .... there is a rumor that Narduzzi doesn't really like living in East Lansing (do you blame him?), and Texas isn't much better. Plus, he was only making something like $250,000 a year at Michigan State. Since turning down Texas A&M's offer of $650,000 a year, it is rumored that Narduzzi got a boost to $500,000 to stay in the B1G. Is this enough to make him like East Lansing?
Why he will not come to Tennessee: The Vols have been responsible for a lot of coaches getting raises, and the interest that Narduzzi has had with the Vols has been thought to be merely to get more money out of Michigan State. It might be genuine, but there is speculation that Dooley will have no more of that.
So who will it be?
The surprise Sam Pittman announcement today should tell us all that Dooley is keeping these hires close to the vest, and that he is controlling the information that is flowing out of his offices. Although Narduzzi seems like the perfect dark horse surprise, I think that the money-play is accurate and that he really didn't get serious consideration. Shannon and Green are obvious no-hires it seems, which brings us down to Sunseri and Steele.
Sunseri seems like the favorite here. He's got the motive and the opportunity, and everyone and their brother who is an insider is thinking Sunseri. But, I'm not buying it, mainly because I think that Saban is the devil himself and did some sort of deal with Sunseri to keep him in Bammerland, probably with something like a $650,000 salary ... also, the bonding with the son is just too strong.
So that leaves us with Steele, Dooley's first choice. The timing of today's dismissal from Clemson, and the supposed decision today is too convenient. Yes, I know it could be Sunseri or Green as well, but consider that Dooley & Tennessee just love to go back to the same wells. I mean, we know that Rich Bisaccia also has an offer on the table, and Tennessee has offered him before ... well twice ... and this just seems like the same agents working the same deals.
(And don't forget there is also the Pittman effect ... whatever we are expecting, will not be the answer.)
Thus, simple logical deduction can easily point you to the name when inside sources do not, and that is why .... Kevin Steele will be announced on Friday as the new Vol Defensive Coordinator.
