The CFP's isnt a completely lost idea for us

#79
#79
volmandu said:
So here is the scenario for us to make a case for playoffs:

a) We win all our games, Florida loses theirs and we beat Alabama in the SEC CG.
b) Michigan beats Ohio state but loses to Wisconsin in Big 10 Championship game.
c) Oklahoma Beats WV.
d) Washington loses one more.
e) Clemson loses to South Carolina or in the ACC Conference Championship.
f) Louisville loses one more (Houston ?)

Having all these things go for us will ensure that there is no Power 5 team, except Alabama, with less than two losses.

Here are 4 playoffs teams:

1) Alabama, despite losing to us will be 12-1 and get in playoffs.
2) There will be one of the two loss teams (Wisconsin lets say since they will have beaten Michigan)
3) Another two loss team (Oklahoma or Clemson) or One of the non-power 5 unbeaten teams (Western Michigan)
4) For the 4th team, selection committee could either pick from one of the two loss teams or non-power five teams (same as #3) or they could give extended look at Team like TN, who basically just avenged their third loss against #1 ranked team by beating them. Hard sell but would look very impressive.

I know, still very improbable for all these to happen and even if they did, slight chance for us to get in. But there is still a path.
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We are not going to the playoff.
 
#80
#80
When even the snowball that resides in hell is wishing you, 'oh, ok, good luck' with a sarcastic tone, you know your chances are low. :)
 
#82
#82
bamawriter said:
Except that Bama would be sitting with 2 fewer losses and would also have a head-to-head over UT (a rather massive one, in UT's house).

Any of the borderline impossible scenarios that would have UT in will have Bama in as well.
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I'm just posting the criteria as listed by the CFP Committee online. According to their criteria, margin of victory doesn't matter, and conference championship matters more. Considering the human element, if Tennessee truly starts playing well, and goes on a run, it's a judgement call.


It would depend on who that 2-loss team is. If it's Oklahoma, given their schedule, they're getting in over 3-loss Tennessee.
Tennessee would really need the following scenario to play out in the Big XII:

-OK St loses to TCU
-Oklahoma beats WV
-Oklahoma State beats OU

Oklahoma would then win the Big XII with three losses. This still wouldn't guarantee much for UT, because OU has a pretty solid SOS.
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So a 10-2 Oklahoma team with no conference championship game win gets in over a 10-3 UT team that beat Alabama? Not likely. Tennessee gets in over any 2 loss Big 12 team, for this reason, imo. If it was still done by computer rankings, I would agree, but again, I doubt the committee would vote this way.


UT needs the following situation to play out in the Big Ten:

-OSU loses to Michigan St
-OSU beats Michigan
-Nebraska loses to Maryland or Iowa
-Wisconsin loses to Purdue or Minnesota
-Wisconsin beats Penn St in Big Ten title game and wins the conference with 3 losses.

That way UT has at least an argument to be in over or alongside the Big Ten champ.
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I think at least 1 team from the Big Ten gets in no matter what, but I doubt 2 would get in over Tennessee in this scenario.


UT needs the following to happen in the Pac 12:

-Washington St beats Colorado and Washington
-Colorado beats Utah
-USC beats UCLA
-USC beats WSU in Pac 12 title game

This is leaves the Pac 12 champ with 3 losses. Given how much better USC has played since September, it would probably help UT's argument if the Trojans lose to Notre Dame.

And the Vols need way more help than they can conceivably get in the ACC.
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If USC wins the Pac 12 title game, when comparing opponents, again this is based on their criteria that I have listed, they would be comparing common opponents, which would go to UT because of Bama.


Again, I'm not saying it's likely, but I believe it is still a small possibility, based on their criteria. Had this been based on the BCS, it wouldn't even be a possibility, but with the human factor involved, it's a bit more than record.
 
#83
#83
lexkyvol said:
Ohio St and Michigan still have to play.....and then the winner could lose the BigTen title game to wisconsin. UofL could lose tomorrow night vs Houston. Washington still has ranked rival Washington St. and the PacTen title game to play. Clemson still has the ACC title game to play.

Some losses here, us winning out and beating Bama and who knows.

Yes, it is a long shot, but not an impossible one!
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Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son

-Dean Vernon Wormer
 
#84
#84
WiseOlVol said:
How about one that is the sec champ and 1st team to beat #1 and NC Alabama in 25 games?
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Irrelevant. No 3 loss team is getting into the CFP. Unless of course we are in the bizarro world where everything is opposite. Then it could happen.
 
#87
#87
BigOrangeTrain said:
Irrelevant. No 3 loss team is getting into the CFP. Unless of course we are in the bizarro world where everything is opposite. Then it could happen.
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If this year isn't the most bizarro year ever, I don't want to see that year. I mean, the World Series was between the Cubs and the Indians!
 
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#89
#89
Sorry. I get it OP. I really do. But no. The USCjr game literally was he nail in that coffin. Hope may spring eternal but not this time. This kind of hope will only lead to despair, despair leads to anger, and anger leads to the dark side. I've seen too many wild hopes and expectations lead young padawans down the path of no return.

It's okay to have hope or believe when no one else does, but you gotta know when enough is enough.
 
#90
#90
Not impossible...we would just have to play like bama the rest of the season, including beating bama as badly as they beat us...
 
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#91
#91
lexkyvol said:
Ohio St and Michigan still have to play.....and then the winner could lose the BigTen title game to wisconsin. UofL could lose tomorrow night vs Houston. Washington still has ranked rival Washington St. and the PacTen title game to play. Clemson still has the ACC title game to play.

Some losses here, us winning out and beating Bama and who knows.

Yes, it is a long shot, but not an impossible one!
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Nice. Way to work it out. Let's handle our business, get the help we want from LSU, and see what happens.

It's not over yet.

Plan D all the way to Tampa.
 
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#92
#92
lexkyvol said:
Ohio St and Michigan still have to play.....and then the winner could lose the BigTen title game to wisconsin. UofL could lose tomorrow night vs Houston. Washington still has ranked rival Washington St. and the PacTen title game to play. Clemson still has the ACC title game to play.

Some losses here, us winning out and beating Bama and who knows.

Yes, it is a long shot, but not an impossible one!
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I think our chances of beating Bama alone are less than us having a chance at making the playoffs as a 3-loss team unless we get healthy quickly and Bama goes into some sort of funk.

But tell you what, I will dream with you a little bit. SEC east champs, sec champs, 11-3 with a NY bowl win sounds good to me.
 
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#93
#93
BigOrangeTrain said:
Irrelevant. No 3 loss team is getting into the CFP. Unless of course we are in the bizarro world where everything is opposite. Then it could happen.
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Nobody thought a 2 loss team could make the BCS title game and then 2007 happened.

A 3-loss team will make the CFP one day. I dont know if it will be this year but it will happen.
 
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#94
#94
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Nobody thought a 2 loss team could make the BCS title game and then 2007 happened.

A 3-loss team will make the CFP one day. I dont know if it will be this year but it will happen.
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Only if it expands beyond 4 teams, to 8 teams or more. No way a 3-loss team is gonna get there while it's a 4 team playoff IMHO.
 
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#96
#96
Iam4utalways said:
Nice. Way to work it out. Let's handle our business, get the help we want from LSU, and see what happens.

It's not over yet.

Plan D all the way to Tampa.
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Been trying to tell you guys, the Outback bowl should be our third or fourth choice. :)
 
#98
#98
KBVol said:
Only if it expands beyond 4 teams, to 8 teams or more. No way a 3-loss team is gonna get there while it's a 4 team playoff IMHO.
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No way? We're a couple of more weekends like last week from seeing that happen this year.

You might not like me arguing Tennessee is still alive for a playoff spot. But USC is most definitely alive. They just need a little help like Colorado losing to Washington State this weekend.

USC is currently #13 in the playoff rankings. If they win the Pac-12 and a few things fall their way like Va-Tech beating Clemson for the ACC title, Louisville losing to Houston, and Michigan winning out, they would make the playoff as a 3 loss conference champion.

In that scenario the playoff would look like this:

1. Alabama (13-0; SEC Champ)
2. Michigan (12-1; Big 10 Champ)
3. Oklahoma (10-2; Big 12 Champ)
4. USC (10-3; Pac 12 Champ)

Teams like Ohio State, Clemson, Louisville, Wisconsin, Penn State, Washington, etc. would be out because they would all have 2 or more losses and no conference title.

10-3 (conference champion) >>> 10-2 (non-champion)
 
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#99
#99
And for Tennessee to get in to the playoff as a 3-loss SEC Champ, they would need everything that happened for USC to happen for them in addition to TCU beating Oklahoma State and Oklahoma beating West Virginia this weekend and then having Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma that final weekend.

That would make Okahoma the Big 12 Champ at 9-3 thereby knocking them out and giving Tennessee a spot in the playoff as a 10-3 SEC Champ.
 
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#100
#100
The key factor here is conference champion. There are 5 major conferences. The committee is gonna reward the best 4. It doesn't make any sense to reward a non-champion since all schools in any conference do not play each other. This was the main reasoning behind my post.
 
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