MWAVolfan
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Let me preface this with "I am not calling for Pruitt to be fired". This is intended as an open and objective question. What should be done with Pruitt at the end of this year? One thing to take off the table is the question of his extension and any buyout talk. I have never seen this an an obstacle for any power 5 program and it hasn't stopped Tennessee from firing it's last two coaches. Tennessee will find the money to do this if they feel it is needed. Let's just stick with the questions of program development, recruiting and win/loss chances.
Let me explain this situation the way Jeremy Pruitt would do it.
When CJP says "JG gives us our best chance to be successful" most fans can look at JGs history and his current performance and know that this is a garbage statement. JG is a known quantity at this point and I don't think as a senior that we are gonna teach this old dog new tricks. We are all now pretty much saying "let the new guy QB, what do we have to lose because JG will not get any better".
Well, why aren't we looking at the coach with the same logic? If you look at CJP's history at UT and his current performance, does he REALLY give us the best chance to be successful or should we let a new guy try it?
I ask you this, in 2 years are we going to have another Butch Jones scenario on our hands? What does CJP's history and current performance tell us about that? If you look at all the comparisons, most of them currently favor Butch Jones 2.5 years into his tenure at UT. Recruiting was better, winning was better, program hype was definitely better.
People are going to want to know how the rest of the season turns out for sure. So let's look at the last 5 games of the season:
Pig F@ckers - Road game. Tennessee should win, but then again Tennessee should not have been blown out by UK at home (50/50 chance of winning)
Brown Shirts - There's no statistical reason to expect a win against the #8 team in the nation - (L)
The Barn - Another tough road game. I don't see this Tennessee team winning its second straight game at Auburn (30% chance of winning?) (L)
Commode-ors - Lets just say if you cant win this game, fire everyone on the spot (W)
Meth Addicted Reptiles - Yeah, no. Tennessee has lost to MUCH worse UF teams (L)
So, by my meager estimate we are looking at our final record being 4-6 at best 3-7 at worst
You can agree with that or not, don't really care, this is just a hypothetical. In my opinion 2020 will be a big step backward from 2019, a season in which we lost to Ga St, BYU and nearly lost to Indiana. If this proves to be true, CJP would be SIGNIFICANTLY behind Botch Jones by the end of year 3.
Statistically there are three possibilities of where we could be at the end of year 5: we are significantly better (winning 9-11 games) , we are significantly worse (winning 2-4 games) or we are somewhere about the same as we are now (winning 5-8 games). Two of those three outcomes I believe all of us would agree are completely unacceptable by the end of year 5.
Based on the level of recruits we have now and based on the players we have in-house (the cabinet is not bare like it was after Dooley and Botch), would the odds be in our favor to go ahead and roll the dice on a new coach again and put that new coach in a good position to win significantly in 2 years or just ride it out and *hope* the guy we already have 2.5 seasons of data on can somehow miraculously turn this sinking ship around in those same 2 years. The danger of the latter being Butch Jones 2.0, a completely wrecked program with no developed players.
So I guess the way I'm looking at it would be if we don't see Tennessee winning double digit victories by the end of year 5 under Pruitt based on all the info we have at hand, what should our course of action be at the end of this year?
Let me explain this situation the way Jeremy Pruitt would do it.
When CJP says "JG gives us our best chance to be successful" most fans can look at JGs history and his current performance and know that this is a garbage statement. JG is a known quantity at this point and I don't think as a senior that we are gonna teach this old dog new tricks. We are all now pretty much saying "let the new guy QB, what do we have to lose because JG will not get any better".
Well, why aren't we looking at the coach with the same logic? If you look at CJP's history at UT and his current performance, does he REALLY give us the best chance to be successful or should we let a new guy try it?
I ask you this, in 2 years are we going to have another Butch Jones scenario on our hands? What does CJP's history and current performance tell us about that? If you look at all the comparisons, most of them currently favor Butch Jones 2.5 years into his tenure at UT. Recruiting was better, winning was better, program hype was definitely better.
People are going to want to know how the rest of the season turns out for sure. So let's look at the last 5 games of the season:
Pig F@ckers - Road game. Tennessee should win, but then again Tennessee should not have been blown out by UK at home (50/50 chance of winning)
Brown Shirts - There's no statistical reason to expect a win against the #8 team in the nation - (L)
The Barn - Another tough road game. I don't see this Tennessee team winning its second straight game at Auburn (30% chance of winning?) (L)
Commode-ors - Lets just say if you cant win this game, fire everyone on the spot (W)
Meth Addicted Reptiles - Yeah, no. Tennessee has lost to MUCH worse UF teams (L)
So, by my meager estimate we are looking at our final record being 4-6 at best 3-7 at worst
You can agree with that or not, don't really care, this is just a hypothetical. In my opinion 2020 will be a big step backward from 2019, a season in which we lost to Ga St, BYU and nearly lost to Indiana. If this proves to be true, CJP would be SIGNIFICANTLY behind Botch Jones by the end of year 3.
Statistically there are three possibilities of where we could be at the end of year 5: we are significantly better (winning 9-11 games) , we are significantly worse (winning 2-4 games) or we are somewhere about the same as we are now (winning 5-8 games). Two of those three outcomes I believe all of us would agree are completely unacceptable by the end of year 5.
Based on the level of recruits we have now and based on the players we have in-house (the cabinet is not bare like it was after Dooley and Botch), would the odds be in our favor to go ahead and roll the dice on a new coach again and put that new coach in a good position to win significantly in 2 years or just ride it out and *hope* the guy we already have 2.5 seasons of data on can somehow miraculously turn this sinking ship around in those same 2 years. The danger of the latter being Butch Jones 2.0, a completely wrecked program with no developed players.
So I guess the way I'm looking at it would be if we don't see Tennessee winning double digit victories by the end of year 5 under Pruitt based on all the info we have at hand, what should our course of action be at the end of this year?