The Atlanta Braves

#191,052
#191,052
mr.checkerboards said:
He was on Elder last night. That didn't go too well.
I dont tail him a lot, I just thought the play was interesting.
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I don’t tail anybody .. nobody should

Elder last night was a losing prop. If your reason for playing something is “the minnesota twins strike out the most” .. guess who else knows that?

Every pitcher is a potential over and every pitcher is a potential under. There are very rarely actual edges. It turns into a statistical game, getting the better of the number/odds as often as possible.
 
#191,053
#191,053
TBrown said:
I don’t tail anybody .. nobody should

Elder last night was a losing prop. If your reason for playing something is “the minnesota twins strike out the most” .. guess who else knows that?

Every pitcher is a potential over and every pitcher is a potential under. There are very rarely actual edges. It turns into a statistical game, getting the better of the number/odds as often as possible.
Click to expand...
I usually tail because I'm terrible at picking stuff out myself.
Except on stuff last night, my first thought was we are going to hit bombs but I didn't like price on Ronald. My gut told me Murphy.
Then when I was looking the price on Harris was too good not to play.

Now today, I'm on Olson, I feel like he hits well in day games, and it always seems like the day after a guy is the play he goes deep.
 
#191,054
#191,054
We are off tomorrow and have a mostly rested bullpen. Allard has made two starts/8 innings since March. He threw 60 pitches last time out. He’s going to have a short leash, be pitch count limited and (this is the most important part) he stinks.

Do the twins stink more? Maybe. Is snit itching to take him out? You bet. Could the Braves score 10 runs and no one cares how long Allard throws? Possible. Could Maeda junk ball the Braves into 0’s? Wouldn’t be the first time.

Not something I’m wagering on. Too many variables.
 
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#191,055
#191,055
mr.checkerboards said:
I usually tail because I'm terrible at picking stuff out myself.
Except on stuff last night, my first thought was we are going to hit bombs but I didn't like price on Ronald. My gut told me Murphy.
Then when I was looking the price on Harris was too good not to play.

Now today, I'm on Olson, I feel like he hits well in day games, and it always seems like the day after a guy is the play he goes deep.
Click to expand...
Lol Matt’s a good bet vs anybody who isn’t left handed and doesn’t throw 97+
 
#191,057
#191,057
TBrown said:
We are off tomorrow and have a mostly rested bullpen. Allard has made two starts/8 innings since March. He threw 60 pitches last time out. He’s going to have a short leash, be pitch count limited and (this is the most important part) he stinks.

Do the twins stink more? Maybe. Is snit itching to take him out? You bet. Could the Braves score 10 runs and no one cares how long Allard throws? Possible. Could Maeda junk ball the Braves into 0’s? Wouldn’t be the first time.

Not something I’m wagering on. Too many variables.
Click to expand...
I don't know if you read Hyslop's stuff or not, but what you just described is what seems to get him into trouble in these K props. He throws out a fair amount that make a lot of sense, that I will occasionally tail if I also agree with the analysis. He also throws out a fair amount that, like with Allard, there isn't a lot to base any kind of analysis on, and you're just kind of like "...huh?"
 
#191,059
#191,059
05_never_again said:
I don't know if you read Hyslop's stuff or not, but what you just described is what seems to get him into trouble in these K props. He throws out a fair amount that make a lot of sense, that I will occasionally tail if I also agree with the analysis. He also throws out a fair amount that, like with Allard, there isn't a lot to base any kind of analysis on, and you're just kind of like "...huh?"
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See that's what I did with Elder last night, I was like he's not a strikeout guy.
 
#191,060
#191,060
05_never_again said:
I don't know if you read Hyslop's stuff or not, but what you just described is what seems to get him into trouble in these K props. He throws out a fair amount that make a lot of sense, that I will occasionally tail if I also agree with the analysis. He also throws out a fair amount that, like with Allard, there isn't a lot to base any kind of analysis on, and you're just kind of like "...huh?"
Click to expand...
I am completely unfamiliar with him
 
#191,061
#191,061
He also called him Colby so he’d have to make a pretty compelling case for me to take any of it seriously.

You aren’t wagering real money on a player prop without knowing the guys name.
 
#191,062
#191,062
TBrown said:
He also called him Colby so he’d have to make a pretty compelling case for me to take any of it seriously.

You aren’t wagering real money on a player prop without knowing the guys name.
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At times I've wondered if he actually bets what he posts, he throws so much wild stuff out there.
TBH a lot of twitter people I wonder if they bet what they posted.
 
#191,069
#191,069
mr.checkerboards said:
I usually tail because I'm terrible at picking stuff out myself.
Except on stuff last night, my first thought was we are going to hit bombs but I didn't like price on Ronald. My gut told me Murphy.
Then when I was looking the price on Harris was too good not to play.

Now today, I'm on Olson, I feel like he hits well in day games, and it always seems like the day after a guy is the play he goes deep.
Click to expand...
how many hours a week do you spend on a riverboat casino
 
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