The Atlanta Braves - Hello darkness

#26,929
#26,929
The good news for the Phillies is that Harper should help them immediately. Based on 100 simulations run for FiveThirtyEight by Out of the Park Developments, Harper will improve the Phillies from an 80.2-win team in 2019 to an 86.1-win team, though the computer forecasts still had Philadelphia missing the postseason.

 
#26,930
#26,930
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FiveThirtyEight examined all players in MLB history who have had one season of 8 or more WAR — but only one — before turning 26, and then we studied the trajectory of those players’ careers. There are 32 such players in MLB history, including three other than Harper who are still active: Aaron Judge, Matt Chapman (who hasn’t played his age 26 season) and Evan Longoria. Of the 28 players who are no longer active, 17 never produced another 8-plus WAR season after their age 25 season.






The historical players studied peaked at age 24 (6.6 WAR) and 25 (6.5 WAR), then they declined steadily. A player’s peak is often earlier than conventional wisdom would expect. Jeff Zimmerman at FanGraphs found that while the average ballplayer peaks at age 27, good players peak at either 25 or 26 years old.
 
#26,933
#26,933
Kingston Vol said:
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FiveThirtyEight examined all players in MLB history who have had one season of 8 or more WAR — but only one — before turning 26, and then we studied the trajectory of those players’ careers. There are 32 such players in MLB history, including three other than Harper who are still active: Aaron Judge, Matt Chapman (who hasn’t played his age 26 season) and Evan Longoria. Of the 28 players who are no longer active, 17 never produced another 8-plus WAR season after their age 25 season.






The historical players studied peaked at age 24 (6.6 WAR) and 25 (6.5 WAR), then they declined steadily. A player’s peak is often earlier than conventional wisdom would expect. Jeff Zimmerman at FanGraphs found that while the average ballplayer peaks at age 27, good players peak at either 25 or 26 years old.
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Admittedly don't really have time to dig into this today so I may just be talking out of my ass, but my gut says this is a bit oversimplistic way of looking at things. I would guess a lot of the players they are referencing are like Longo where they achieved an 8+ war season through a combination of plus defense and when that defense declined the bat could not carry them to another season like that. Harpers 10 WAR season was very much created at the plate and I just don't think that will decline as quickly. Yeah he may not put up another 10 WAR season, so I guess you could say he has peaked in that sense, but could easily see him putting together a string of 5.0+ war seasons
 
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#26,936
#26,936
The thing about Bryce is his swing is crazy complex, when he is a tick off, which is most of the time, he is human albeit still very good.. and very dangerous. BUT. When it’s on, it’s as formidable a swing and he is as much of a force as Bonds. An open mind from Bryce (probably not gonna happen) and an elite batting coach would put Harper out of this stratosphere. Just from tea leaves, I’d say the only person who could convince Bryce to shorten up would be that walking stick of testosterone he calls Daddy.
 
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