The acceleration of Artificial Intelligence

#1

Vol737

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 2, 2011
Messages
4,479
Likes
3,930
#1
I have recently watched/read several things regarding AI. Initially targeted toward replacing low wage jobs, it now continues its trajectory toward higher wage, higher skilled jobs. Interested in experiences/information/transitions in other “spaces” from posters on VN and how it affects your job or industry from jobs lost/gained, cost savings, lost compensation, the challenges that lie ahead, etc. Trying to also learn more about other fields and occupations that I know little or nothing about.

In commercial aviation the big push is toward pilotless aircraft. Drones have been in use for a while now for military purposes. While it won’t happen quickly in commercial air travel, the first step is single pilot operations with a “support” pilot/drone operator as the additional crew member.

As of now, all new commercial jet aircraft being manufactured are designed for two pilot crews. Under the assumption of single pilot operations, our work force would be reduced by half, resulting in over a $1B cost savings in pay alone (ball parking here only for the airline I work for), not counting company contributions to retirement and healthcare. A very stark reality for all participants in every space within our economy. Let er rip...the good, the bad, the ugly.
 
#2

pismonque

Bury me in Orcadian peat
Joined
Aug 4, 2009
Messages
3,451
Likes
5,035
#2
Sam Harris did an interesting TED talk about AI. It’s an interesting topic to wade through and I’m still pretty ambivalent about where I think it may be going.
 
#6

Vol737

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 2, 2011
Messages
4,479
Likes
3,930
#6
Jobs will be the least of our worries once a true AI is created! LOL
Agreed. And I didn’t want to expound on that in my first post (making it a dissertation), but people point to the adverse consequences of AI on society, e.g. the push for Universal Basic Income and other expanded social safety nets in the absence of or loss of jobs due to AI. Don’t want to get political on this, but there seems to be an unavoidable political element as it impacts society going forward.
 
#9

IPleadInsanity

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 24, 2014
Messages
3,841
Likes
3,567
#9
Agreed. And I didn’t want to expound on that in my first post (making it a dissertation), but people point to the adverse consequences of AI on society, e.g. the push for Universal Basic Income and other expanded social safety nets in the absence of or loss of jobs due to AI. Don’t want to get political on this, but there seems to be an unavoidable political element as it impacts society going forward.
Can you imagine creating an intelligent thinking robot that can, in a short period of time, solve all the ills of man, food shortage, clean free unlimited energy, elimination of wars and all you have to do is punch the startup button? Inevitably someone somewhere will punch it and 1 second later we become the #2 species on this planet.
 
#10

pismonque

Bury me in Orcadian peat
Joined
Aug 4, 2009
Messages
3,451
Likes
5,035
#10
Can you imagine creating an intelligent thinking robot that can, in a short period of time, solve all the ills of man, food shortage, clean free unlimited energy, elimination of wars and all you have to do is punch the startup button? Inevitably someone somewhere will punch it and 1 second later we become the #2 species on this planet.
I don't know. It might take one look around and just unplug itself.
 
#11

DancingOutlaw

No sloppy, slimy eggs plz
Joined
Aug 11, 2010
Messages
9,442
Likes
9,401
#11
Agreed. And I didn’t want to expound on that in my first post (making it a dissertation), but people point to the adverse consequences of AI on society, e.g. the push for Universal Basic Income and other expanded social safety nets in the absence of or loss of jobs due to AI. Don’t want to get political on this, but there seems to be an unavoidable political element as it impacts society going forward.
The market in its purest form is just like evolution. There is no will to it, it simply picks the winners. AI is rising because the expenses of lower level workers are finally intersecting with the costs of developing and implementing the technology. Driverless trucks are becoming more feasible because we are short tens of thousands of truck drivers with no end in sight. When the car was invented it didn’t lead to the death or destitution of those who made carriages or horse tack. They simply transitioned to other jobs, and the automobile created millions more jobs. The internet did the same thing. AI will also lead to more jobs, not less. And each generation is having fewer children than the last, so any concerns about job shortages are being remedied naturally by declining population growth. Those in areas with labor expenses less than AI implementation expenses will be immune to these changes. It all works out in the end.
 
#13

Berry4Heisman14

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 8, 2009
Messages
8,770
Likes
3,267
#13
I’m just curious bc some of you may have more knowledge on it than I. I mean what happens if let’s say half the jobs we do as humans, become completely AI based and they don’t need us anymore? What happens when most jobs are like that? Will we all just be homeless? It’s a scary thought. The rich will get richer and the middle class and below will get poorer.
 
#14

JustFunnN'Orange

Kicked back on the beach
Joined
Oct 10, 2007
Messages
1,134
Likes
327
#14
The market in its purest form is just like evolution. There is no will to it, it simply picks the winners. AI is rising because the expenses of lower level workers are finally intersecting with the costs of developing and implementing the technology. Driverless trucks are becoming more feasible because we are short tens of thousands of truck drivers with no end in sight. When the car was invented it didn’t lead to the death or destitution of those who made carriages or horse tack. They simply transitioned to other jobs, and the automobile created millions more jobs. The internet did the same thing. AI will also lead to more jobs, not less. And each generation is having fewer children than the last, so any concerns about job shortages are being remedied naturally by declining population growth. Those in areas with labor expenses less than AI implementation expenses will be immune to these changes. It all works out in the end.
I have read this theory before...and, looking at past history of manufacturing evolution, this way of thinking has held true. But, I'm not sure I am comfortable with AI self replication having the same effect in the long term.

On the other hand, I probably won't be around to witness......so, good luck Future.
 
#15

JustFunnN'Orange

Kicked back on the beach
Joined
Oct 10, 2007
Messages
1,134
Likes
327
#15
Since we're talking futuristic here......a prediction. I've been in the automotive replacement parts industry most of my adult life. Love watching Velocity/Motor Week (whatever it is now)
Long story short, I don't see the old classics and the muscle cars I grew up with continuing to grow in value.....in fact, I think the inverse is gonna be true. I think next gen. of Millenials (or whatever they are called) will look at these cars as museum pieces as electric, self drivers become the norm.
 
#16
Joined
Dec 2, 2011
Messages
24,272
Likes
13,404
#16
I think that the next job groups probably most radically affected will be in medical, legal, and transportation.

Legal should become more efficient for consumers in contractual matters. But there could be more opportunities in the profession related to governmental/criminal work. Wills, estates, probate, transactions, etc. should become pretty routine and not require lots of hours billed at $500+ per. But law enforcement will be gathering much more evidence that will require much scrutiny and interpretation.

Medical screenings and diagnostics should become much more routine and efficient as more and more data is accumulated. I'm really interested in TeleDoc as a potential LT investment.

Transportation will be an obviously disrupted industry. Automobile manufacturers won't see as much growth with autonomous, shared vehicles replacing much of the suburban model of multiple cars per family sitting parked 90-95% of the time.

It will be interesting to see if future employment trends break from historical examples with new, better jobs replacing those that are obsolete. Autos replaced horse drawn vehicles, but that is closer to a basic need than what is potentially replaced going forward. The new industries and jobs that are created to support the coming evolution may not be as critical or as plentiful.

AI has already disrupted the financial (investments and brokerage space) and retail sectors. Tasks such as payroll, tax prep, and transaction processing are vastly different than just a few years or decades back. No reason that any expensive and/or high demand commerce won't be changed as well. Healthcare will most likely be next up seeing the most change. Politics will likely be the most difficult piece to maneuver around. Watch Warren B., Amazon, and (was it?) United Healthcare that have partnered up. Intuitive Surgical hasn't been around but for about a single generation and look at how much they've changed procedures.

There's a lot of potential to really grow the divide between the economic haves and have nots. Socialism could pick up even more advocates. It's kind of frightening. Is it 1984? It will be important to include robust competition in however things evolve. Hopefully government scales back and becomes more efficient.
 
#17

XknoxvolsX

The only people who dislike winners are losers!
Joined
Mar 11, 2019
Messages
477
Likes
421
#17
I have recently watched/read several things regarding AI. Initially targeted toward replacing low wage jobs, it now continues its trajectory toward higher wage, higher skilled jobs. Interested in experiences/information/transitions in other “spaces” from posters on VN and how it affects your job or industry from jobs lost/gained, cost savings, lost compensation, the challenges that lie ahead, etc. Trying to also learn more about other fields and occupations that I know little or nothing about.

In commercial aviation the big push is toward pilotless aircraft. Drones have been in use for a while now for military purposes. While it won’t happen quickly in commercial air travel, the first step is single pilot operations with a “support” pilot/drone operator as the additional crew member.

As of now, all new commercial jet aircraft being manufactured are designed for two pilot crews. Under the assumption of single pilot operations, our work force would be reduced by half, resulting in over a $1B cost savings in pay alone (ball parking here only for the airline I work for), not counting company contributions to retirement and healthcare. A very stark reality for all participants in every space within our economy. Let er rip...the good, the bad, the ugly.
Can't wait for TopGun II to come out and explain it all to us!
 
#18

GoVolsDR

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 11, 2018
Messages
956
Likes
1,033
#18
Medical screenings and diagnostics should become much more routine and efficient as more and more data is accumulated. I'm really interested in TeleDoc as a potential LT investment.
If I was a radiologist, I would be very concerned about the rapid growth of automation and AI in healthcare. Telemedicine has been around for a long time, and when you look at the massive data sets that exist within the radiology imaging space, deep learning neural networks will create algorithms for use in automated diagnosis platforms. This is one of the most impactful ways that I see healthcare changing, much quicker than we can possibly imagine. Software platforms are going to provide Auto Dx capabilities, and this is going to be very threatening for specialists. AI and Auto Dx are going to make the lives of Primary Care Providers much easier, and they are going to be using platforms that bring specialists care into the PCP office. Likewise, when this becomes the standard of care, these kinds of platforms will be available in places like retail locations like CVS, Walgreens, Kroger, or Safeway. The benefits of healther populations are and should be self-evident, but there already is enormous resistance to the growth of these platforms by the specialist professional organizations. They're going to directly lobby CMS to stop the adoption of AI, Auto DX, and telemedicine, and they already are doing so in some cases.

AI and machine learning pilots are already penetrating the healthcare space. The big tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Google are getting into spaces in healthcare where they've had very little exposure, and they're going to compete against many of the traditional medical and healthcare companies. This is only the natural evolution from the emergence of Electronic Health Records and the reality of accountability, quality-based care, and care delivered across populations.

What is going to be really interesting is how the payers react towards the emergence of AI and Auto-DX. If they stay silent on this topic, we're going to start seeing some really interesting concepts and platforms go to market, and some are already there. Watch this space closely over the next 6-24 months.
 
#20

bag12day

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 2, 2008
Messages
600
Likes
697
#20
Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk both have said AI is probably the most relative and existential threat for humanity. Not global warming, clean water, deforestation, etc...kindof says something that one is pushing the envelope on AI lol well and the other one doesn't have to worry about it. Hawking said once machines reach the point of being able to evolve and replicate themselves, their goals and our might not be the same and at that point we will be the #2 species on this planet.
 
#21

IPleadInsanity

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 24, 2014
Messages
3,841
Likes
3,567
#21
Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk both have said AI is probably the most relative and existential threat for humanity. Not global warming, clean water, deforestation, etc...kindof says something that one is pushing the envelope on AI lol well and the other one doesn't have to worry about it. Hawking said once machines reach the point of being able to evolve and replicate themselves, their goals and our might not be the same and at that point we will be the #2 species on this planet.
Some think it is our purpose here and the almost certain by product of evolution on this planet. Once accomplished what use would we be?
 
#22

jhamilton1208

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 3, 2015
Messages
1,691
Likes
1,414
#22
If I was a radiologist, I would be very concerned about the rapid growth of automation and AI in healthcare. Telemedicine has been around for a long time, and when you look at the massive data sets that exist within the radiology imaging space, deep learning neural networks will create algorithms for use in automated diagnosis platforms. This is one of the most impactful ways that I see healthcare changing, much quicker than we can possibly imagine. Software platforms are going to provide Auto Dx capabilities, and this is going to be very threatening for specialists. AI and Auto Dx are going to make the lives of Primary Care Providers much easier, and they are going to be using platforms that bring specialists care into the PCP office. Likewise, when this becomes the standard of care, these kinds of platforms will be available in places like retail locations like CVS, Walgreens, Kroger, or Safeway. The benefits of healther populations are and should be self-evident, but there already is enormous resistance to the growth of these platforms by the specialist professional organizations. They're going to directly lobby CMS to stop the adoption of AI, Auto DX, and telemedicine, and they already are doing so in some cases.

AI and machine learning pilots are already penetrating the healthcare space. The big tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Google are getting into spaces in healthcare where they've had very little exposure, and they're going to compete against many of the traditional medical and healthcare companies. This is only the natural evolution from the emergence of Electronic Health Records and the reality of accountability, quality-based care, and care delivered across populations.

What is going to be really interesting is how the payers react towards the emergence of AI and Auto-DX. If they stay silent on this topic, we're going to start seeing some really interesting concepts and platforms go to market, and some are already there. Watch this space closely over the next 6-24 months.
You know, I hadn't really thought about it, but I ran a call the other day and there was a lady there that had been to multiple doctors, ER visits, etc etc. and they could never figure out what was going on with her, but there was a doc that plugged her symptoms into a computer and it actually spit out a correct diagnosis for her. I can see what you're saying happening - quicker than people realize.
 

VN Store



Sponsors
 

Top