This shouldnt be a surprise. Tennessee might be sitting in the Sweet 16 as a No. 11 seed, but truth be told, that number never represented the Volunteers true ability.
Heading into the tournament, our statistical model pegged the Vols as the nations 22nd-best team. KenPom.com said Tennessee ranked 11th nationally. So when the Vols knocked off a sixth-seeded UMass squad that was as overseeded as they were underseeded and followed that up by dispatching Mercer, they werent shocking the world. They were playing to form.
Now, as the Vols prepare to face Michigan on Friday night, its evident beyond the computers that Tennessee is for real. With one Giant already brought low, can Tennessee add another notch to its belt?
Our model gives the Vols a heck of a chance. In addition to Tennessees demonstrated strength, Michigan is far from impervious, sporting a Giant rating of 79.9 on a 100-point scale. After factoring in Tennessees Killer rating and historical similarities, the Vols end up with a 35.4 percent chance of knocking off the Midwests No. 2 seed. And that seems about right.
The game will be a fascinating skirmish between a Killer that plays more a like a Giant and a Giant that acts more like a Killer. In fact, were Tennessee a Giant, it would have a higher rating (85.3) than Michigan, and the Wolverines sport a better Killer rating (51.4) than the Vols (39.6).
That difference is evident in each teams offensive system. The Wolverines launch 3-pointer after 3-pointer, with treys accounting for 40.3 percent of their shot attempts. The Vols pound it inside to Jarnell Stokes and Jeronne Maymon, who either score or get the ball back; Tennessee ranks fourth in the nation in offensive rebounding (39.8 percent of misses).
That stylistic difference is crystallized at the power forward position. Although Stokes is a load inside for Tennessee, Glenn Robinson III is essentially an additional wing, helping John Beilein execute his four-out offense. Stokes will have trouble chasing Robinson around the perimeter; Robinson will be hard-pressed to keep Stokes off the glass. In a game full of potential fault lines that could tilt the ground in favor of either squad, that matchup is the epicenter.
Were the Vols more of a traditional Giant Killer, you would want to see them attack Michigan with an additional risk-seeking weapon beyond offensive rebounding. But the Vols just dont have the personnel to start bombing from deep or pressuring the ball to force turnovers, and besides, the Wolverines do a fantastic job of protecting the ball and are more than adequate at guarding the arc. No, Tennessee will try to bludgeon Michigan on the glass. Considering that the teams are separated by only eight spots in the models latest power ratings, that conventional approach might be all it takes for Tennessee to advance to the regional final.