Tennessee vs LSU, FPI substantially favors Tennessee

#27
#27
hUTch2002 said:
Yep, we have to keep Waters out of the lane best we can, absolutely keep him from getting out in transition, and then keep LSU off the offensive glass. They are a very good offensive rebounding team.
Click to expand...

I’m just not that sure they are great on the offensive glass. Memphis, LA Tech, Charleston, FSU, Houston, St Mary’s, ULMonroe, Bama, Ole Miss, Georgia twice, and Kentucky have all beaten them on the offensive glass. So in 12 of 26 games they have been beaten. Basically half.
hUTch2002 said:
That doesn’t mean they aren’t good at it. They are 4th in the country.
NCAA Basketball Stats - NCAA BB Team Offensive Rebounding % on TeamRankings.com
Click to expand...


I know where they are ranked. But you look at games where they got 18-20 offensive boards against teams outside the top 150...that certainly helps pad the stat sheet. It also means you missed that many shots. High field goal percentage lowers your offensive rebounds.

LSU is a good basketball team, no question. I think we are better. If we hold them under 30 per half I think we win. Reid is going to do what he does. He’s too long to just shoot over. Hopefully Grant can create some contact and get him in foul trouble. They are a different team with him off the court.

We can handle Waters. He’s going to get some wide open looks and hit some 3s...but that hasn’t been enough to beat us all year.

We need better play from Admiral and Kyle to help Williams on the inside, and I think we take this one.

This one gets won or lost in the paint in my opinion.
 
  • Like
Reactions: PulaskiVolFan and sport3500
#29
#29
scottchatt said:
I’m just not that sure they are great on the offensive glass. Memphis, LA Tech, Charleston, FSU, Houston, St Mary’s, ULMonroe, Bama, Ole Miss, Georgia twice, and Kentucky have all beaten them on the offensive glass. So in 12 of 26 games they have been beaten. Basically half.



I know where they are ranked. But you look at games where they got 18-20 offensive boards against teams outside the top 150...that certainly helps pad the stat sheet. It also means you missed that many shots. High field goal percentage lowers your offensive rebounds.

LSU is a good basketball team, no question. I think we are better. If we hold them under 30 per half I think we win. Reid is going to do what he does. He’s too long to just shoot over. Hopefully Grant can create some contact and get him in foul trouble. They are a different team with him off the court.

We can handle Waters. He’s going to get some wide open looks and hit some 3s...but that hasn’t been enough to beat us all year.

We need better play from Admiral and Kyle to help Williams on the inside, and I think we take this one.

This one gets won or lost in the paint in my opinion.
Click to expand...
Every team plays cupcakes so 4th in the country at this point of the season means you are good on the offensive glass. If another team gets more offensive rebounds than LSU that simply means they aren’t good at defensive rebounding. Giving up offensive rebounds literally has zero relevance as to whether or not LSU is good at it.

I could see free throws being the difference ultimately but I agree play in the paint will be key. It’ll likely be close. We need much better shot selection than we had against KY and that starts with better ball movement on offense.
 
#30
#30
hUTch2002 said:
Every team plays cupcakes so 4th in the country at this point of the season means you are good on the offensive glass. If another team gets more offensive rebounds than LSU that simply means they aren’t good at defensive rebounding. Giving up offensive rebounds literally has zero relevance as to whether or not LSU is good at it.

I could see free throws being the difference ultimately but I agree play in the paint will be key. It’ll likely be close. We need much better shot selection than we had against KY and that starts with better ball movement on offense.
Click to expand...

Good on the glass or terrible at shot selection. They have shot under 50% in 16 games. We have shot under 50 in 5. Doesn’t really matter. I do expect to get pushed around inside on both ends of the court Saturday. I just hope we do a better job pushing back than we did last Saturday.

Admiral does a little better job being the enforcer than Grant. Also when he is playing hard and taking some shots..he usually plays better. We could definitely use some of that Saturday. Bring Fulky in enough to keep the big guys out of foul trouble...and hopefully we can handle them.

Waters is good, I just feel that Turner plays well enough in ball to keep him contained. We actually do worse when the 2 is the shooter than when the 1 is.
 
  • Like
Reactions: sport3500
#31
#31
alaVOL said:
At their house after their loss, hmmmm..... We need to play much better than the Vandy outing. GBO!
Click to expand...
Their situation is very different from Kentucky when we played them. Last 6 games LSU: 2 loses and 4 wins by 5 points or less.
 
#37
#37
I think CRB has a good idea of exactly what's going on. Some things are beyond his control and #1 is the officiating. The cheap foul against K.Alexander to start the 2nd half against UK, (that shouldn't have been called), did damage strategy-wise, plus it has Kyle playing less physical trying to avoid getting in foul trouble. UT needs to move past that and get physical regardless. We need Fulky, Walker, Pons, and J.Johnson to contribute more especially with Turner, Bowden and Kyle A. not playing as well as they have been. Scholfield is going to be key and I think he'll come through more often than not. Inside passing to Grant is going to have opponents collapsing down on him immediately which should allow both Bone and Admiral to have good drives and short shots at the hoop. Bowden can take it in too. Turner is trying to force it and it's not working and Bowden hasn't been hitting from outside as of late.
We just have to play a real good defensive game Sat. and the offense will come around. We're not hustling up and down the court and our passing isn't as crisp as it was. Bone is taking too much time out on the perimeter passing back and forth and due to that UT has the shot clock winding down all too often. That needs to be avoided. I personally don't like the small line-up of Bone,Bowden, and Turner. Maybe it's because the ball's not falling from the outside lately. I just think it comes down to coaching at these times and the players ability to heed what coach tells 'em. We should be in pretty good shape.
 
  • Like
Reactions: PulaskiVolFan
#38
#38
FlVols said:
After watching LSU play UF last night I believe UT is the better team. I believe we will win at LSU Saturday. It will be a tight game, but I pray we have rested well yesterday and they had to play an OT game last night and got beat. So, Go VOLS!! Beat the Tigers!
Click to expand...

You are right if you only look at that one game. (same as looking at our one game at KY) But if you look at the whole season of games for LSU, you get a different picture. (as you do with us) To sum up, one game, a season does not make. So,,, UT - LSU will be an interesting game that based on the WHOLE season, we win.
 
#45
#45
Unconditional Surrender said:
Pace of play primarily. LSU likes to push the tempo. They are an offense-led team. I think we are going to do well in any game that has good offensive flow. I realize they rebound well but I don't think they have the edge on us that Ky had there.
Click to expand...
Well, LSU ranks ahead of UK in both ORebs/gm (#5 nationally) and OReb % (#4 nationally). I think they will give us the same problems if we choose to give them free paths to the basket like we did UK.

On pace of play, I agree, we match up better with LSU than we do UK. Tennessee isn't scared to get out in transition and play fast.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Unconditional Surrender
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.
Advertisement



Back
Top