Tennessee Vols: 5 Bold Predictions For 2017 Season

#3
#3
For those who can't or don't want to click the link and read through the article, here's the synopsis of his "Five Bold Predictions":

1. John Kelly breaks out, rushes for 1,000+ yards
2. Ethan Wolf will be the 2nd-leading receiver on the team
3. Defense will be one of the Top 3 in the SEC
4. Vols will win 10 games in 2017 (9 in regular season, plus bowl)
5. Vols win the SEC East

I do think all five are plausible, some more likely than others.

Bearded, I found most interesting the same thing you honed in on: 9-3 regular season prediction, combined with winning the East.

It's possible the writer meant he thinks we lose to Ga Tech and two SEC games, so win the East at 6-2. I personally think Ga Tech is not one of our four hardest games, though. So at 9-3 regular season, I'd see all 3 being SEC losses as well.

No one said his five predictions have to fit logically well together. He may have a fuzzy kind of "center of mass" idea of where he thinks we'll end up, and just built predictions off of that...some at one edge of the fuzzy shot group, others at the opposite end.

Nicely written article, though. Clearly click-bait, but not a bad write-up nonetheless.
 
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#5
#5
#3, #4, and #5 have zero chance of happening.

If #2 occurs, that is an indictment of the WRs and the passing game overall, not how good Ethan Wolf is. As far as #1, that's less than 100 yds per game, assuming Kelly stays healthy.
 
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#6
#6
VFL-82-JP said:
For those who can't or don't want to click the link and read through the article, here's the synopsis of his "Five Bold Predictions":

1. John Kelly breaks out, rushes for 1,000+ yards
2. Ethan Wolf will be the 2nd-leading receiver on the team
3. Defense will be one of the Top 3 in the SEC
4. Vols will win 10 games in 2017 (9 in regular season, plus bowl)
5. Vols win the SEC East

I do think all five are plausible, some more likely than others.

Bearded, I found most interesting the same thing you honed in on: 9-3 regular season prediction, combined with winning the East.

It's possible the writer meant he thinks we lose to Ga Tech and two SEC games, so win the East at 6-2. I personally think Ga Tech is not one of our four hardest games, though. So at 9-3 regular season, I'd see all 3 being SEC losses as well.

No one said his five predictions have to fit logically well together. He may have a fuzzy kind of "center of mass" idea of where he thinks we'll end up, and just built predictions off of that...some at one edge of the fuzzy shot group, others at the opposite end.

Nicely written article, though. Clearly click-bait, but not a bad write-up nonetheless.
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He specifically calls out the losses in his 9-3 prediction as Alabama, Florida, and Georgia.
 
#8
#8
05_never_again said:
LSU is a loss, plus perhaps one more.
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I know we "should" lose to LSU, but for some reason I feel like this year we break that voodoo curse Rohan Davies mom put on us LOL. (Getting old and might have the wrong kid/mom combo) I guess being old also allows me to think we get UGA again. Don't see beating Bama even being old and senile and UF early in the season and on the road I do not see unless we get a ton of breaks our way.

GBO
 
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#9
#9
ALLVOL24/7/365 said:
I know we "should" lose to LSU, but for some reason I feel like this year we break that voodoo curse Rohan Davies mom put on us LOL. (Getting old and might have the wrong kid/mom combo) I guess being old also allows me to think we get UGA again. Don't see beating Bama even being old and senile and UF early in the season and on the road I do not see unless we get a ton of breaks our way.

GBO
Click to expand...

The good think about playing Florida early is that they have 7 or 8 new starters on defense.
 
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#10
#10
I boldly predict he will get at least three out of the five right if not all of them,haha. Might as well,it's the off-season and I'm tired of discussing Butch for a while.
 
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#11
#11
Hard to fathom a good SECeast tie breaker scenario with losses to Florida and Georgia and another SEC loss to bamer.
 
#12
#12
Kelly rushes for 1400 yds. Wolfe will catch alot of passes Scott will use him more. Defense will be much improved top 6. We are 10-2 in regular bowl game? wait for opponent We do win the East.
 
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#13
#13
BeardedVol said:
He specifically calls out the losses in his 9-3 prediction as Alabama, Florida, and Georgia.
Click to expand...

Ah yeah, my bad, I missed that.

But in the very next section, he talks about us "being on the right path" to win the East if we "steal a win from Florida or Georgia."

So even he himself is kind of wishy-washy on what constitutes the 9-3 regular season, even after calling the 3 losses.
 
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#14
#14
VFL-82-JP said:
Ah yeah, my bad, I missed that.

But in the very next section, he talks about us "being on the right path" to win the East if we "steal a win from Florida or Georgia."

So even he himself is kind of whisky-washy on what constitutes the 9-3 regular season, even after calling the 3 losses.
Click to expand...

fyp :)
 
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#17
#17
05_never_again said:
#3, #4, and #5 have zero chance of happening.

If #2 occurs, that is an indictment of the WRs and the passing game overall, not how good Ethan Wolf is. As far as #1, that's less than 100 yds per game, assuming Kelly stays healthy.
Click to expand...

This guy is not a happy guy I bet.

Guy acts like none of that is possible. Prolly hits his dog to feel better.
 
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#18
#18
BeardedVol said:
All right Zach Ragan, time to own it.What's your VolNation handle?

All seem relatively plausible, except 3 and 5. If his 4th prediction is true, winning the SECe with a 5-3 record isn't very likely. Top 3 defense is a bit of a stretch considering how much production we lost after 2016; could see top 5 though if we stay healthy and Shoop delivers.
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#3 is completely plausible.

Everyone panicked about our defense at the end of last season, but no one seems to remember the beginning of the season. Versus App State, VT, and in the 2nd half versus Florida, our defense looked like a top 5 defense nationally. We only started stinking it up when when lost like half of our key players on D. Ignoring the injuries, the only unit that really underperformed was the secondary, and we fired the coach and replaced him with one of the best in the business.

The one that seems most difficult to me is #4: winning 10 games. Our schedule is brutal (as always) and we have a first time starting QB. It's not impossible to win 10, but not going to be easy.
 
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#19
#19
DiderotsGhost said:
#3 is completely plausible.

Everyone panicked about our defense at the end of last season, but no one seems to remember the beginning of the season. Versus App State, VT, and in the 2nd half versus Florida, our defense looked like a top 5 defense nationally. We only started stinking it up when when lost like half of our key players on D. Ignoring the injuries, the only unit that really underperformed was the secondary, and we fired the coach and replaced him with one of the best in the business.

The one that seems most difficult to me is #4: winning 10 games. Our schedule is brutal (as always) and we have a first time starting QB. It's not impossible to win 10, but not going to be easy.
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Top 5 national defenses don't let Sunbelt teams rush for 184 yards, at home, in the opener. VT and Florida both had 400 yards of total offense on our defense.

For reference, all top 5 defenses in 2016 allowed less than 300 ypg on average.

We never looked like a top 5 defense in the nation during 2016
 
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#20
#20
I don't think a win against UGA or UF (or maybe both, who knows) is out of the realm of possibility. Dormady is an unknown quantity right now to other teams, but Jennings and Kelly aren't. And they will do everything they can to shut down Jennings and Kelly. Opening the door for the hoop of other receivers/TEs we have in the offense. So long as the O Line can give Dormady the time to throw, that can open the field bigly with our crop of receivers.

The defense can grow under Shoop and as long as the injury bug doesn't hit us, should be fairly potent. You can't replace a Derek Barnett as he's a generational player, but you can have some step up and make significant contributions. DBs are my biggest concern at the moment.

Overall, I'm not buying into the UGA hype that a lot of sportswriters seem to be. Call it the homer in me, but I'm not sold on Smart and company just yet. Tennessee can beat them at home.
 
#21
#21
BeardedVol said:
Top 5 national defenses don't let Sunbelt teams rush for 184 yards, at home, in the opener.
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Right ... you mean the App State team that averaged 272 rushing ypg and 5.8 ypc against other teams?

You do realize context is important, right? "Sunbelt team" = Sunbelt Conference Champion + one of the best mid-major programs in the entire nation.

VT and Florida both had 400 yards of total offense on our defense.
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Oh are you talking about the VT team that hung 35 on Clemson, the national champion?

When your standard says "THE TEAM THAT WON THE NATIONAL TITLE SUCKS!", you're trying way too hard to be negative.
 
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#22
#22
Well....I hope our players have more confidence and belief in themselves than VolNation...or we will be lucky to win 4 games this year.
 
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#23
#23
DiderotsGhost said:
Right ... you mean the App State team that averaged 272 rushing ypg and 5.8 ypc against other teams?

You do realize context is important, right? "Sunbelt team" = Sunbelt Conference Champion + one of the best mid-major programs in the entire nation.
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At home, in the season opener, with an upper-classma-led defense. Yeah I do expect Bob Shoop to have the UT defense in a state to not let the Sunbelt conference champion rush for nearly 200 yards on us. He gets paid over a million dollars a year, that's not too much to ask.

DiderotsGhost said:
Oh are you talking about the VT team that hung 35 on Clemson, the national champion?

When your standard says "THE TEAM THAT WON THE NATIONAL TITLE SUCKS!", you're trying way too hard to be negative.
Click to expand...

The UT defense averaged giving up 449 YPG in 2016 good for 95th in the country. Florida and VT were less than 50 yards below our average, but somehow those are examples of us looking like a top 5 defense in the nation? Wow.:crazy:
 
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#24
#24
BeardedVol said:
All right Zach Ragan, time to own it.What's your VolNation handle?

All seem relatively plausible, except 3 and 5. If his 4th prediction is true, winning the SECe with a 5-3 record isn't very likely. Top 3 defense is a bit of a stretch considering how much production we lost after 2016; could see top 5 though if we stay healthy and Shoop delivers.
Click to expand...

If Coach Charlton Warren's work with the secondary allows us to run a true 4-3, being a top 3 defense is not a stretch at all. Having that third linebacker up front should cut two or three yards off the average gained per carry against us last year. The first game should answer if that has a prayer.
 
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#25
#25
BeardedVol said:
He gets paid over a million dollars a year, that's not too much to ask.
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Bearded, we gotta get past this red herring.

Yes, college football (and basketball) coaches earn WAY more than they probably ought to. If the world were somehow "fair," every good teacher and nurse and soldier and fireman would earn more than any entertainer (sports or movies or music, doesn't matter).

But we don't live in that world. We live in the world where the demand for entertainment is all but insatiable, where folks will pay $100 for a game or concert ticket without blinking, but balk at paying an extra $10 a month so the school's teachers have sufficient supplies to teach their kids. So the economics of the industry means people are gonna get paid hella lot to entertain us.

If you want to argue against this element of capitalism, have at it. But recognize it for what it is...a discussion of an idiosyncrasy within our economic system.

break/break

Once you get past that, Shoop is paid a "reasonable" wage these days for a defensive coordinator in the SEC. I mean, I haven't checked, but I assume his roughly $1m/year is within a couple of hundred thousand of the average, and that he makes less than some and more than others..

So to bring up the $1M every time you want to mention that he could do better, that's just mixing and confusing two completely different issues.

We should stick to the football part, if you wanted to talk football.



EDIT: okay, I went back and looked it up. Found a USA Today chart that is from 2016 (still has Kiffin at Bama), but is still pretty recent. Here are the SEC coordinators who make within about $300K of Shoop, in either direction:

Chavis at A&M - $1.56M
Kiffin at Bama - $1.4M
Aranda at LSU - $1.3M
Cameron at LSU - $1.2M
Shoop at Vols - $1.15M
Steele at Auburn - $1.1M
Collins at Florida - $1.05M
Pruitt at Bama - $1.0M
Mazzone at A&M - $0.965M
Chaney at Georgia - $0.85M
Tucker at Georgia - $0.85M
Smith at Arky - $0.825M
Wommack at Ole Miss - $0.8M

So he's definitely toward the upper end, but also definitely in the ball park of "resonable" for our league. If you have a problem with his pay, your problem is more with the industry and our society as a whole than it is with Shoop and whether he's earning his pay.
 
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