Tennessee favored by 1 1/2 over Arkansas by Draftkings

#80
#80
Sarms58 said:
If the VOLS who traveled to South Carolina and won show up in Arkansas I like our chances...
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The Vols team that only converted ONE third-down conversion the entire game and only won that game because we got a pick six? Sure.
 
#81
#81
volsack said:
That's not entirely accurate. Sports betting isn't about who will win, it's about finding inefficiency in the line at the time it presents itself. The book sets the opening number where it thinks it will draw equal action, and then the market moves the line to the right number. Inefficiencies are found in statistical evaluation, and thus seeing the line as too high or low, and bets being placed. People who just guess at betting don't move lines
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Yep.

IMO, if you think about placing bets in terms of making predictions on the outcome of the game, you're going about it wrong. The only way to be profitable at it over time is to 1) be the house or 2) find lines that you think are mispriced. It's not any different than value investing.
 
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#85
#85
volsack said:
That's not entirely accurate.
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This is what I think of anytime someone uses that phrase:

To your point, perhaps a better way to say it is that betting lines move when a majority of gamblers believe that teams are better or worse in relation to each other than is reflected by the then current betting line.
 
#86
#86
Vol423 said:
The Vols team that only converted ONE third-down conversion the entire game and only won that game because we got a pick six? Sure.
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I was thinking more along the lines of the team that didn’t turn the call over multiple times; the team whose O didn’t give the opponent 17 first half points. We need that team AND better conversions on third down.
 
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#90
#90
unfrozencvmanvol said:
This is what I think of anytime someone uses that phrase:

To your point, perhaps a better way to say it is that betting lines move when a majority of gamblers believe that teams are better or worse in relation to each other than is reflected by the then current betting line.
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Basically. Though I'd replace majority of gamblers with majority of accumulated bet amount. A few large bettors can sway spreads vs hundreds of recreational people.

They just have to balance the books (in general). Though there are cases in which bookies see the public going way off the deep end and they occassionally will make "plays" and intentionally allow the bet totals to get out of whack if they see a significant edge.
 
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#91
#91
Volsfaninva917 said:
You actually can on some off shore sites IIRC
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Offshore sites have allowed some wild best the past 15+ years.

Surprised so many are getting into betting just now. Bets are even worse with Tennessee's nation-worst 90% payout rate. Probably sending out tax statements too.

Good reason these sites are handing out bonuses like candy. All the new fish are showing up to get slaughtered.
 
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#94
#94
Volsfaninva917 said:
He was trying to prove a point although he proved nothing yet because my original comment said by kickoff. He thinks he's God's gift to this board but is constantly wrong and the kind of guy who wants a fist fight in a phone booth.
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Pretty sure I proved my point, you said it would be a pick em game by halftime, you were trying to be the all knowing a$$ h0[# when you said it. You were wrong and it wasn't really that tough of a call.
 
#95
#95
Ten_Titans said:
Gaming the system.

Fandual has a similar offer, but you have to take TN.

Take TN on Fandual, take ARK on DraftKings... You are guaranteed to win $100.

I took TN on both because I am a shmuck.
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I looked around in those sites and don't see these deals anywhere, but I keep hearing people talk about it. I'm so confused.
 
#96
#96
PulaskiVolFan said:
Pretty sure I proved my point, you said it would be a pick em game by halftime, you were trying to be the all knowing a$$ h0[# when you said it. You were wrong and it wasn't really that tough of a call.
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A pick em by half time lol you have no clue how this works....

BTW genius the line is now down to -1
 
#97
#97
Volsfaninva917 said:
A pick em by half time lol you have no clue how this works....

BTW genius the line is now down to -1
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You gotta remeber when dealing with pulaski...pulaski spends his time conning families out of money to get thier daughters D3 soccer scholarship..he flips more then sleepy joe
 
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