this is my message from
buckeyeplanet that you quoted (top of this page). though i do believe that the game is a toss-up, by no means am i afraid of the match-up. given that both teams are so young, each has changed a lot since that first game. i do expect that the bucks will handle the pressure much better than they did in that game. i also expect that your team's shooting won't be as poor. the winner will likely be the team that better addresses these areas.
i'm fine with a toss-up, too. ohio state has proven time after time that they are an especially adept team during crunch time. many of their games this year witnessed a run toward the end. i'm not just talking about the xavier game either. if you had watched the buckeyes play a number of games this year, you would have noticed this eleventh hour mindset. they are a different team--a much better team--in the last few minutes.
most of the posts that i read here follow the general line of "offensively, the vols need to--and can, of course--shoot well from the outside; the team needs to limit/control oden." though those expectations (granted, they're not the
only expectations) are certainly appropriate, they are just a small portion of the picture. everyone should note that each team is comparable from behind the arc. the vols shoot 35%; the bucks shoot 36%. neither team is exceptional from that distance. the difference is that tennessee shoots 4 more per game (24 to 20 attempts). the difference in effective field goal percentage is about a half-a-point. the difference is negligible.
in my humble opinion, the game comes down to these questions:
1. will ohio state fare better this time against tennessee's pressure? the bucks figured out the press by bringing up oden. can tennessee adjust? other teams did this (bringing up big men) down the stretch, so i suspect that your players have learned and will still put tremendous pressure on our guards and forwards. if ohio state does bring up oden, will this wear him down? might you see othello hunter (6'9" with 7"+ span) in his place?
2. will tennessee shoot better than 7-of-31 from behind the arc? much of this hinges upon whether oden is taken away from the basket. if he can be, the perimeter becomes more open, as well as does the interior. of course, lofton can hit from anywhere and in the face of lots of pressure. he didn't against the bucks, though, going 3-of-11. expect to see butler and lighty on lofton. they are exceptional on-the-ball defenders. ohio state does have issues guarding the corners while in the 2-3. even with oden in the middle, the wings often get sucked toward the middle. hunter still has the mentality of a shot-blocker. this mentality draws him toward the bucket. ivan harris, the other common wing in the 2-3, is a step slow and can also get caught underneath. watch the corners if we go to a 2-3.
3. will chism and crews face up oden and take him off the dribble? teams can either go at oden or go away from him. though it appears counterintuitive, opposing players must go at him. if you get him on his heels and backpedaling toward the bucket, he will get fouls and will get tired. unfortunately for the vols, the buckeyes learned again that they can be just as volatile--if not moreso--without him. remember, the bucks hung with the tar heels (even led by 10 for a decent part of the game) until unc's depth became too much.
of course, no game is played in the past. no one knows who will be hot, who will be cold, and who will just be. the players don't know. the coaches don't know. certainly, the fans don't know. because of this, all we can go on are the stats and the previous game. sure, i just ran in a circle, but it's a circle all of us must run until 9:57 on thursday.
by the way, rocketvol, neither one post nor one poster is representative of a fan base. i'd also like to put to rest the notion that ohio state fans in general think that the game will be decided by 10 to 15 points (a statement by another poster) in our favor. most i've talked to think it will be closer to 5 to 8 points. i haven't gotten the sense that anyone is afraid; however, the general consensus is that the bucks must play very well to beat your team. i'm sure you guys feel the same way.
