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1. This Tennessee team will completely change its style
The past three years Tennessee played at a moderate pace, but they always would go back to its most comfortable style pounding the ball in the post. The goal was to clear it out for Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield to let them eat. It was the absolute right strategy and with Jordan Bone's improvement last year they went with more pick and roll late to spread the floor. Last year they were 164th in adjusted tempo and I expect that to jump significantly with this team. Now with Uros Plavsic declared ineligible, it's going to be even more prevalent to run in transition. We saw a lot of pace in the preseason game and we saw the increase in turnovers. Lamonte Turner and Josiah-Jordan James will have the ball in their hands a lot, needing to create opportunities for other players. They will have to take risks and that could be frustrating at times.
It's going to lead to some sloppy play I bet Barnes will want to pull his hair out at times. But he knows this will be the best chance to win. Tennessee won't be able to throw the ball down low to an NBA player and get points. They must be creative on offense and take chances. They are going to have to shoot a lot of 3's to stay in some games. This won't be like past Tennessee teams and Barnes knows that. Expect a different brand of basketball this year, which also makes sense considering all the backcourt talent Tennessee is adding into the program next year.
2. The most important player for this season is...John Fulkerson!?!?!
If you had told me April 5th that John Fulkerson would be the most important player on Tennessee's basketball team right before the first regular-season game, I would have given you the look of a man that lost all sense of the world. It's not to say John Fulkerson is a bad basketball player. He's been a good role player in his time at Tennessee. But he's the only post player with any experience. He's the only post player that's ever played a meaningful game. He's the only post player that has shown he can be competent.
Turner, Bowden, and James are all clearly better basketball players. And in terms of actual value, they will provide more of it. The point being that if Fulkerson gets hurt or misses any significant time Tennessee's tournament chances go down the drain. Drew Pember, Olivier Nkamhoua and Zach Kent having to play center in the SEC play is not a great scenario. Fulkerson also needs to improve his game. He needs to get tougher and work better at finishing around the rim. He also is going to have the ball in his hands more out of pure necessity. He's had issues with ball control in the past. He's good at defending the pick and roll which must continue. If he can become a consistent 25-30 minute guy and can stay out of foul trouble, Tennessee should be fine.
3. Speaking of post players, who is going to step up?
We know Fulkerson is going to start at center and get significant minutes, but he is going to run into foul trouble in some games. He also has never played huge minutes before. The backup center looks to be Nkamhoua and I was pleased to see he was bigger than I originally thought. He has good athleticism and a lot of reports say he has a scorer's ability. That remains to be seen, but the big thing is if he can show enough in rebounding and pick and roll coverage to be consistent. I like his game and I think he has a chance to be really good. He will be thrown into the fire.
Both Zach Kent and Drew Pember will play early just to get minutes in case of an emergency later on. I think we will only see an 8 man rotation with Barnes, but injuries happen. Kent is a stretch 5 and has some length but defensively seems to struggle. Pember has some skills but man is he skinny. Also, there are early injury concerns (including Pember rolling his ankle last week) with both players. Pember and Kent are pretty similar players and having a stretch big man would be a nice addition Tennessee hasn't had since Lew Evans (um...no shot at Lew but I would call it a stretch he was an offensive threat). The key (as I keep mentioning) is health. They are going to need all four. Which brings me to the next point.
4. Only having 10 scholarship players that can play is living on the edge
I'm sure Rick Barnes' plan in April was not to have only 10 scholarship players available this year. While they most likely figured Williams was gone, I think Bone leaving for the draft was a legitimate surprise. And we know Derrick Walker and DJ Burns leaving wasn't ideal. Plavsic not being eligible is a blow and completely unfair, but trying to rely on the NCAA for your roster is always a risky proposition.
I'm really curious how Barnes handles minutes early in the season. Bowden and Turner will most likely get a lot of 35-minute games in SEC play. It wouldn't surprise me if Barnes takes it easy on those two and manages their minutes in nonconference games. It's going to be a marathon with just ten guys and with four freshmen they are going to play early and often. And every player is going to contribute. We might even see a walk-on get minutes at times in SEC play.
5. Defensively, Tennessee might be better than last year
Last year, defense cost Tennessee a chance at championships. They weren't as effectively defensively, finishing 42nd in kenpom defensive efficiency. This year, I think they could actually improve that number. Turner and Bowden are both excellent defenders, but adding Yves Pons and giving him minutes at the four gives Tennessee the opportunity to be more creative in their defensive coverages. They will be able to switch more and Pons/Fulkerson will be a SWAT team at times blocking shots. There are still a lot of questions and playing four freshmen normally results in inconsistent defense. And there will be times where they will miss assignments.
Last year, Tennessee was conservative on defense. They didn't have much depth and were so top-heavy they didn't want to take chances on fouls. I believe this year they might try more pressing, more traps, and play tighter man to man defense. They might take more risks in the passing lanes, knowing they have to create chances on the other end with the small-ball lineup. I also wouldn't be surprised if they hold opponents to lower percentages shooting but give up a ton of points because of offensive rebounding. Last year, they were terrible rebounding the ball (30% opponents ORB%) on the defensive end. So it's possible it doesn't get worse. But Pons and Nkamhoua must use their athleticism to rebound the basketball.
6. Tennessee will go as far as the seniors take them
Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden have been some of the best role players at Tennessee this century. Turner's defense and shooting have been vital to the success of Tennessee basketball the last two years. Jordan Bowden has been a high energy player and his willingness to come off the bench for the betterment of the team last year (Turner the previous year) was commendable. But this year, it's their team. They must become stars.
Turner will be the primary ball-handler (James will also have the ball a lot) and his ability to create needs to step up another level. Last year, his passing game improved (20% assist rate) and he really improved his ability around the rim to score. He is going to have watch the turnovers and also needs to improve his pick and roll game. I believe the shoulder really affected his outside shooting. He looked much more confident shooting the ball in the preseason game. We know Turner is big time in the clutch and not afraid of the moment. Time for him to have that mentality throughout the game.
For Jordan Bowden, it's time for consistency. After James, Bowden has the most talent on the team and has NBA potential. There have been too many times Bowden has disappeared on the offensive end. That wasn't all his fault. Trying to find shots between Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Jordan Bone (then Lamonte Turner) is not easy. This year, Barnes will help him out. He is going to call more plays for Bowden and he will not tolerate the lack of aggressiveness. Bowden also needs to be comfortable creating plays with the ball in his hands. Tennessee will go as far as the two senior captains will take them.
7. What can we expect from the freshmen?
Tennessee will have four freshmen. I expect at least two to be significant cogs in the rotation throughout the year and the other two will get some run. Drew Pember has skills and Tennessee is hoping he can develop into a modern four. The ability to stretch defenses and create off the dribble. I expect him to be a project and if Plavsic was eligible I wouldn't be shocked if Pember was scheduled to redshirt. That won't happen this year. The lack of strength and lack of defense will probably make him the 10th man. Davonte Gaines also has skills but is a lot like Pember. Very skinny and probably not ready for SEC play. He was a stat stuffer in high school and is able to drive to the rim and create. He is a lefty with some craftiness to his game and a good athlete. I don't believe both players will be playing consistent minutes in SEC play this year (assuming no injuries and when Tennessee isn't in foul trouble).
Olivier Nkamhoua is a player I really like. I like his overall game and while he is raw, there is definitely the talent for him to become an All-SEC caliber player before his career his done. He has some scoring touch and he is bigger than I originally thought. He will need to work on defense (like the other two) but he is going to play. I like him more as 4, but having to play center will make him grow up some. That's not necessarily a bad thing.
Josiah-Jordan James is going to be really fun to watch progress. He's not a typical five-star freshman. He looks to create for others and he has the physical tools of a junior. Barnes wants him to be more aggressive and he cannot be afraid to try and score. I'm also willing to bet that Rick Barnes is going to hound him constantly to keep up his defensive effort. What I really am excited about is when Tennessee plays James at point guard and spread out with Bowden, Turner, and somebody at the 4 that can shoot. James could be dynamite in the pick and roll game. I've also heard he has a post-game too. With his size, he might get a chance to make plays down low. Also, he's another lefty that might create mismatches. The one issue is the shooting. He has a slow-release right now, but he will improve that. Barnes is a shot doctor and will fix it.
8. The schedule is brutal
It's one thing to have this schedule with an experienced team and 13 scholarship players available. With four freshmen and only three rotation players coming back, this will be extremely tough. They have to play at Kansas and at Cincinnati, along with a much improved Memphis team coming to town. Not only that, Wisconsin will be in Knoxville on December 28th (maybe an early birthday present for me to go) and also the Emerald Cost Classic will be a tough draw. Oh, and Washington at a neutral site. The SEC should be good and better than last year. Florida and Kentucky are the top teams, and I think Alabama will surprise some people. Tennessee's schedule will help in March. The committee loves if you play a tough schedule and that is going to help. I think 20 regular-season wins guarantees them a tourney appearance with this schedule.
9. Tennessee must commit to the three-pointer
Last year, Tennessee was all about getting to the basket. This year, they are going to have to take and make a lot of three-pointers. Tennessee was 324th in the country 3PA/FGA and 314th in point distribution from the three-point line. To me, for this team to win games, they have to be top 100. Triple J has to be able to drive and create perimeter shots for others. Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden will need to be aggressive from the three-point line. They need Jalen Johnson to consistently make three-pointers and if Zach Kent or Drew Pember can find minutes and be productive, then that will really boost Tennessee on offense. Yves Pons doesn't need to be Steph Curry, but hitting one three a game would be great. I believe Barnes will commit to the three-point line. He has no choice with the lack of post scoring. There will be times that Bowden and Turner might take a bad three, but they will need too. For those two, it's almost as if there is no bad shot for them with this current team.
10. Tennessee makes the NCAA tournament...but things will have to break right
My personal standards for the University of Tennessee Men's Basketball Program is simple: Make the tourney. That's my standard for any coach. If you make the tourney every year, I'm fine with you keeping your job. If Tennessee makes the tournament this year, I will be happy. Especially after losing four starters and two players to transfer. Plus the NCAA giving us a tough break doesn't help matters this year. Last year was the hope of championships and history. This year is not that. It's going to be a lot of growing pains and young guys. Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden are going to have to stars and Josiah-Jordan James will need to be a stud freshman. I have a lot of worries about this team. The lack of size and four freshmen (three that I can argue are projects) that have to be contributors is scary. Rick Barnes and his staff have done a great job developing players since they took over the program. This year, they will have to do their best job yet.
We know what the top three guys should provide. And relying on huge production from the other three freshmen is asking a lot. The key will be four role players: Jalen Johnson, Yves Pons, Zach Kent, and John Fulkerson. Can those four guys take the necessary steps to become consistent role players and give quality minutes in the SEC? Those four guys will be the key to determining the season. Barnes cannot be stubborn this year. Once SEC play starts, he must be creative with his gameplans. The staff will have to scout as well as they ever had. It wouldn't surprise me if Tennessee struggles out of the conference and finishes strong once everyone finds their minutes and their roles. And they must stay healthy. It's an absolute must. One significant injury to Bowden, Fulker, James, or Turner and there's a good chance it ends Tennessee's tournament chances. If everyone stays healthy and the seniors become consistent All-SEC performers, I think Tennessee will be fine.
The past three years Tennessee played at a moderate pace, but they always would go back to its most comfortable style pounding the ball in the post. The goal was to clear it out for Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield to let them eat. It was the absolute right strategy and with Jordan Bone's improvement last year they went with more pick and roll late to spread the floor. Last year they were 164th in adjusted tempo and I expect that to jump significantly with this team. Now with Uros Plavsic declared ineligible, it's going to be even more prevalent to run in transition. We saw a lot of pace in the preseason game and we saw the increase in turnovers. Lamonte Turner and Josiah-Jordan James will have the ball in their hands a lot, needing to create opportunities for other players. They will have to take risks and that could be frustrating at times.
It's going to lead to some sloppy play I bet Barnes will want to pull his hair out at times. But he knows this will be the best chance to win. Tennessee won't be able to throw the ball down low to an NBA player and get points. They must be creative on offense and take chances. They are going to have to shoot a lot of 3's to stay in some games. This won't be like past Tennessee teams and Barnes knows that. Expect a different brand of basketball this year, which also makes sense considering all the backcourt talent Tennessee is adding into the program next year.
2. The most important player for this season is...John Fulkerson!?!?!
If you had told me April 5th that John Fulkerson would be the most important player on Tennessee's basketball team right before the first regular-season game, I would have given you the look of a man that lost all sense of the world. It's not to say John Fulkerson is a bad basketball player. He's been a good role player in his time at Tennessee. But he's the only post player with any experience. He's the only post player that's ever played a meaningful game. He's the only post player that has shown he can be competent.
Turner, Bowden, and James are all clearly better basketball players. And in terms of actual value, they will provide more of it. The point being that if Fulkerson gets hurt or misses any significant time Tennessee's tournament chances go down the drain. Drew Pember, Olivier Nkamhoua and Zach Kent having to play center in the SEC play is not a great scenario. Fulkerson also needs to improve his game. He needs to get tougher and work better at finishing around the rim. He also is going to have the ball in his hands more out of pure necessity. He's had issues with ball control in the past. He's good at defending the pick and roll which must continue. If he can become a consistent 25-30 minute guy and can stay out of foul trouble, Tennessee should be fine.
3. Speaking of post players, who is going to step up?
We know Fulkerson is going to start at center and get significant minutes, but he is going to run into foul trouble in some games. He also has never played huge minutes before. The backup center looks to be Nkamhoua and I was pleased to see he was bigger than I originally thought. He has good athleticism and a lot of reports say he has a scorer's ability. That remains to be seen, but the big thing is if he can show enough in rebounding and pick and roll coverage to be consistent. I like his game and I think he has a chance to be really good. He will be thrown into the fire.
Both Zach Kent and Drew Pember will play early just to get minutes in case of an emergency later on. I think we will only see an 8 man rotation with Barnes, but injuries happen. Kent is a stretch 5 and has some length but defensively seems to struggle. Pember has some skills but man is he skinny. Also, there are early injury concerns (including Pember rolling his ankle last week) with both players. Pember and Kent are pretty similar players and having a stretch big man would be a nice addition Tennessee hasn't had since Lew Evans (um...no shot at Lew but I would call it a stretch he was an offensive threat). The key (as I keep mentioning) is health. They are going to need all four. Which brings me to the next point.
4. Only having 10 scholarship players that can play is living on the edge
I'm sure Rick Barnes' plan in April was not to have only 10 scholarship players available this year. While they most likely figured Williams was gone, I think Bone leaving for the draft was a legitimate surprise. And we know Derrick Walker and DJ Burns leaving wasn't ideal. Plavsic not being eligible is a blow and completely unfair, but trying to rely on the NCAA for your roster is always a risky proposition.
I'm really curious how Barnes handles minutes early in the season. Bowden and Turner will most likely get a lot of 35-minute games in SEC play. It wouldn't surprise me if Barnes takes it easy on those two and manages their minutes in nonconference games. It's going to be a marathon with just ten guys and with four freshmen they are going to play early and often. And every player is going to contribute. We might even see a walk-on get minutes at times in SEC play.
5. Defensively, Tennessee might be better than last year
Last year, defense cost Tennessee a chance at championships. They weren't as effectively defensively, finishing 42nd in kenpom defensive efficiency. This year, I think they could actually improve that number. Turner and Bowden are both excellent defenders, but adding Yves Pons and giving him minutes at the four gives Tennessee the opportunity to be more creative in their defensive coverages. They will be able to switch more and Pons/Fulkerson will be a SWAT team at times blocking shots. There are still a lot of questions and playing four freshmen normally results in inconsistent defense. And there will be times where they will miss assignments.
Last year, Tennessee was conservative on defense. They didn't have much depth and were so top-heavy they didn't want to take chances on fouls. I believe this year they might try more pressing, more traps, and play tighter man to man defense. They might take more risks in the passing lanes, knowing they have to create chances on the other end with the small-ball lineup. I also wouldn't be surprised if they hold opponents to lower percentages shooting but give up a ton of points because of offensive rebounding. Last year, they were terrible rebounding the ball (30% opponents ORB%) on the defensive end. So it's possible it doesn't get worse. But Pons and Nkamhoua must use their athleticism to rebound the basketball.
6. Tennessee will go as far as the seniors take them
Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden have been some of the best role players at Tennessee this century. Turner's defense and shooting have been vital to the success of Tennessee basketball the last two years. Jordan Bowden has been a high energy player and his willingness to come off the bench for the betterment of the team last year (Turner the previous year) was commendable. But this year, it's their team. They must become stars.
Turner will be the primary ball-handler (James will also have the ball a lot) and his ability to create needs to step up another level. Last year, his passing game improved (20% assist rate) and he really improved his ability around the rim to score. He is going to have watch the turnovers and also needs to improve his pick and roll game. I believe the shoulder really affected his outside shooting. He looked much more confident shooting the ball in the preseason game. We know Turner is big time in the clutch and not afraid of the moment. Time for him to have that mentality throughout the game.
For Jordan Bowden, it's time for consistency. After James, Bowden has the most talent on the team and has NBA potential. There have been too many times Bowden has disappeared on the offensive end. That wasn't all his fault. Trying to find shots between Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Jordan Bone (then Lamonte Turner) is not easy. This year, Barnes will help him out. He is going to call more plays for Bowden and he will not tolerate the lack of aggressiveness. Bowden also needs to be comfortable creating plays with the ball in his hands. Tennessee will go as far as the two senior captains will take them.
7. What can we expect from the freshmen?
Tennessee will have four freshmen. I expect at least two to be significant cogs in the rotation throughout the year and the other two will get some run. Drew Pember has skills and Tennessee is hoping he can develop into a modern four. The ability to stretch defenses and create off the dribble. I expect him to be a project and if Plavsic was eligible I wouldn't be shocked if Pember was scheduled to redshirt. That won't happen this year. The lack of strength and lack of defense will probably make him the 10th man. Davonte Gaines also has skills but is a lot like Pember. Very skinny and probably not ready for SEC play. He was a stat stuffer in high school and is able to drive to the rim and create. He is a lefty with some craftiness to his game and a good athlete. I don't believe both players will be playing consistent minutes in SEC play this year (assuming no injuries and when Tennessee isn't in foul trouble).
Olivier Nkamhoua is a player I really like. I like his overall game and while he is raw, there is definitely the talent for him to become an All-SEC caliber player before his career his done. He has some scoring touch and he is bigger than I originally thought. He will need to work on defense (like the other two) but he is going to play. I like him more as 4, but having to play center will make him grow up some. That's not necessarily a bad thing.
Josiah-Jordan James is going to be really fun to watch progress. He's not a typical five-star freshman. He looks to create for others and he has the physical tools of a junior. Barnes wants him to be more aggressive and he cannot be afraid to try and score. I'm also willing to bet that Rick Barnes is going to hound him constantly to keep up his defensive effort. What I really am excited about is when Tennessee plays James at point guard and spread out with Bowden, Turner, and somebody at the 4 that can shoot. James could be dynamite in the pick and roll game. I've also heard he has a post-game too. With his size, he might get a chance to make plays down low. Also, he's another lefty that might create mismatches. The one issue is the shooting. He has a slow-release right now, but he will improve that. Barnes is a shot doctor and will fix it.
8. The schedule is brutal
It's one thing to have this schedule with an experienced team and 13 scholarship players available. With four freshmen and only three rotation players coming back, this will be extremely tough. They have to play at Kansas and at Cincinnati, along with a much improved Memphis team coming to town. Not only that, Wisconsin will be in Knoxville on December 28th (maybe an early birthday present for me to go) and also the Emerald Cost Classic will be a tough draw. Oh, and Washington at a neutral site. The SEC should be good and better than last year. Florida and Kentucky are the top teams, and I think Alabama will surprise some people. Tennessee's schedule will help in March. The committee loves if you play a tough schedule and that is going to help. I think 20 regular-season wins guarantees them a tourney appearance with this schedule.
9. Tennessee must commit to the three-pointer
Last year, Tennessee was all about getting to the basket. This year, they are going to have to take and make a lot of three-pointers. Tennessee was 324th in the country 3PA/FGA and 314th in point distribution from the three-point line. To me, for this team to win games, they have to be top 100. Triple J has to be able to drive and create perimeter shots for others. Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden will need to be aggressive from the three-point line. They need Jalen Johnson to consistently make three-pointers and if Zach Kent or Drew Pember can find minutes and be productive, then that will really boost Tennessee on offense. Yves Pons doesn't need to be Steph Curry, but hitting one three a game would be great. I believe Barnes will commit to the three-point line. He has no choice with the lack of post scoring. There will be times that Bowden and Turner might take a bad three, but they will need too. For those two, it's almost as if there is no bad shot for them with this current team.
10. Tennessee makes the NCAA tournament...but things will have to break right
My personal standards for the University of Tennessee Men's Basketball Program is simple: Make the tourney. That's my standard for any coach. If you make the tourney every year, I'm fine with you keeping your job. If Tennessee makes the tournament this year, I will be happy. Especially after losing four starters and two players to transfer. Plus the NCAA giving us a tough break doesn't help matters this year. Last year was the hope of championships and history. This year is not that. It's going to be a lot of growing pains and young guys. Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden are going to have to stars and Josiah-Jordan James will need to be a stud freshman. I have a lot of worries about this team. The lack of size and four freshmen (three that I can argue are projects) that have to be contributors is scary. Rick Barnes and his staff have done a great job developing players since they took over the program. This year, they will have to do their best job yet.
We know what the top three guys should provide. And relying on huge production from the other three freshmen is asking a lot. The key will be four role players: Jalen Johnson, Yves Pons, Zach Kent, and John Fulkerson. Can those four guys take the necessary steps to become consistent role players and give quality minutes in the SEC? Those four guys will be the key to determining the season. Barnes cannot be stubborn this year. Once SEC play starts, he must be creative with his gameplans. The staff will have to scout as well as they ever had. It wouldn't surprise me if Tennessee struggles out of the conference and finishes strong once everyone finds their minutes and their roles. And they must stay healthy. It's an absolute must. One significant injury to Bowden, Fulker, James, or Turner and there's a good chance it ends Tennessee's tournament chances. If everyone stays healthy and the seniors become consistent All-SEC performers, I think Tennessee will be fine.
