Teams that COULD keep us out of playoffs and what we need to happen

#1
Oldblood

Oldblood

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#1
Keep in mind this is a list of teams that COULD end up ahead of us - this assumes also that we win out and are dominant in doing so. Also, please don't take this as my 100% belief that certain teams down the list would or should be ranked ahead of us based on these scenarios - these are just potential outcomes that could be good/bad for us.

1. Georgia - we just need them to win out in order for our loss to look better (and for reasons discussed below).
2/3 (tied). Ohio State / Michigan - best case scenario for us is that Ohio State wins and wins big - they are rated more highly than Michigan than most and Michigan is more likely to drop if they lose. IF Michigan wins, we need it to be a blowout. Worst case scenario in this game is a close Michigan win as the committee might want a rematch.
4. TCU - just need them to lose a game (any game) and we would have the opportunity to leapfrog them (pun intended). If they win out they are 100% in.
5. USC - just need them to lose a game (any game) - a one-loss Pac-12 champ could absolutely knock us out. We should get in over any two-loss Pac-12 team.
6. LSU - I know, I know, we beat them and were dominant in doing so. BUT, it's better for us if they do not win out. It's not likely but it is possible they sneak ahead of us with SEC title. Early lines if they play Georgia are around 14-17 point spread by the way. Also, it's not bad for us for them to be ranked highly - it makes our road win carry a lot of weight.
7. Clemson - I think the Notre Dame game was a knockout for them but if they really get it together and dominate North Carolina in the ACC championship game they could be a threat.

So, down to seven teams to watch with the bottom three being teams we MAY stay ahead of regardless. Again, the nightmare scenario remains an undefeated TCU and Georgia along with a very close Michigan/OSU game.
 
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#3
#3
Everyone keeps saying TCU will lose a game, but they beat KSU by 10 pts this season, Baylor has 6-4 record and ISU is 4-6. Really going to take a big upset.
Here’s hoping they pick up some bad juju SOON.
 
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#4
#4
I think TN wins it all because it's the best movie in CFB.

Pitch for Unranked - The 2022 Tennessee Volunteers
The program starts out decimated by scandal and transfers with a new coach few people believe in. Low expectations. Transfer QB with a funny name who is also a Christian leader. He goes from backup to starter to Heisman candidate. Beating old rivals and top 20 teams, torn down goal posts, a brutal defeat by division rival only to rise against the odds in the third act to play them in the championship game. Do they win? Does the QB get the Heisman? Are we living in a simulation?

Let's will it into reality.
 
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#5
#5
Scot Harvath said:
Everyone keeps saying TCU will lose a game, but they beat KSU by 10 pts this season, Baylor has 6-4 record and ISU is 4-6. Really going to take a big upset.
Here’s hoping they pick up some bad juju SOON.
Click to expand...
They were getting annihilated by Kansas State until the third string QB came in. That's a huge factor.
 
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#7
#7
Sarms58 said:
I know the odds are very high, but you must include:
8) South Carolina
9) Vanderbilt

If we stumble, we're out...we need to knock these guys out early and keep punching (as one South Carolina fan fears)
Click to expand...
I know this is discussed elsewhere but I still believe UT can't let these games be close.

It would also be VERY helpful if the D showed up for a game. At the risk of opening a can... I have gone from leaning to Banks to leaning away again. UT has enough talent on D that a "good" DC should be able to scheme Mizzou's O. They didn't even give Cook "reads" on a lot of their plays. Just "throw it here, throw it away, or run". Banks literally couldn't stop him.

If I were on the selection committee then UT's D or lack thereof would be the thing that I held against them.
 
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#8
#8
sjt18 said:
I know this is discussed elsewhere but I still believe UT can't let these games be close.

It would also be VERY helpful if the D showed up for a game. At the risk of opening a can... I have gone from leaning to Banks to leaning away again. UT has enough talent on D that a "good" DC should be able to scheme Mizzou's O. They didn't even give Cook "reads" on a lot of their plays. Just "throw it here, throw it away, or run". Banks literally couldn't stop him.

If I were on the selection committee then UT's D or lack thereof would be the thing that I held against them.
Click to expand...

Yea, I'm a fan of shutouts. I know it's more difficult when our O scores in under 2 minutes and the other teams get so many possessions but still, would love to shut out one of our last opponents.
 
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#9
#9
I am keeping my eye on the ACC. Clemson and North Carolina are both shaping up for a top 10 ACC Championship matchup. I do think it’s a long shot but I would not be surprised to see the winner of the ACC Championship leap into the CFP.
 
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#10
#10
Sarms58 said:
Yea, I'm a fan of shutouts. I know it's more difficult when our O scores in under 2 minutes and the other teams get so many possessions but still, would love to shut out one of our last opponents.
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I would be good if I could just explain it. Mizzou's O averages 5.27 yds/play. That's the worst in the SEC. UT allowed them 5.56 yds/play. Only La Tech and Abilene Christian allowed them more. They seemed to have woke up some later in the game... but that was pretty embarrassing for a while. They only had 66 yds on their last 7 drives following their last TD... but still- where was that to start the game?
 
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#12
#12
JBVolunteer said:
I am keeping my eye on the ACC. Clemson and North Carolina are both shaping up for a top 10 ACC Championship matchup. I do think it’s a long shot but I would not be surprised to see the winner of the ACC Championship leap into the CFP.
Click to expand...
Oddly, I think UNC may have a better shot than Clemson. Both lost to ND by multiple scores but UNC was on the road and lost by a closer margin. UNC's QB is 2nd nationally in yds/gm, 3rd in QBR, 4th yds/att, and 5th in completion %... as a Fr. They're 4th in total O and 10th in scoring O.

Clemson has well documented issues at QB and just doesn't have a lot of appeal. They're not dominant on D. They're not dominant on O.... they're boring.
 
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#13
#13
sjt18 said:
I would be good if I could just explain it. Mizzou's O averages 5.27 yds/play. That's the worst in the SEC. UT allowed them 5.56 yds/play. Only La Tech and Abilene Christian allowed them more. They seemed to have woke up some later in the game... but that was pretty embarrassing for a while. They only had 66 yds on their last 7 drives following their last TD... but still- where was that to start the game?
Click to expand...
Banks started leaving two LBs in the box and that helped tremendously
 
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#14
#14
sjt18 said:
Oddly, I think UNC may have a better shot than Clemson. Both lost to ND by multiple scores but UNC was on the road and lost by a closer margin. UNC's QB is 2nd nationally in yds/gm, 3rd in QBR, 4th yds/att, and 5th in completion %... as a Fr. They're 4th in total O and 10th in scoring O.

Clemson has well documented issues at QB and just doesn't have a lot of appeal. They're not dominant on D. They're not dominant on O.... they're boring.
Click to expand...

You’ve got it backwards. UNC lost at home and Clemson on the road. Also UNC barely beat some very bad teams.
 
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#15
#15
KeyVol14 said:
Banks started leaving two LBs in the box and that helped tremendously
Click to expand...
Agree.

But should it really take more than a drive or two to figure that out?

The CB's have been a constant topic here. Some say talent. Some say scheme. I tend to the latter while recognizing the talent isn't "ideal"... but it never is. The pass D wasn't much if any better last year with Taylor pretty much covering one side.

All that said... I would be happy if they were just more aggressive at the LOS. Too often teams are picking up what they need after getting a completely free release. Lots of times if you aren't that "good"... you can make up the difference with aggression and pressure on the opponent.
 
#16
#16
Too many things have to happen to get UT in. Having two SEC teams playing for the championship is probably not a great thing for tv numbers wise.
 
#17
#17
Oldblood said:
You’ve got it backwards. UNC lost at home and Clemson on the road. Also UNC barely beat some very bad teams.
Click to expand...
Thanks. Sorry for the error.

Clemson failed to blow out some of their bad opponents out also. I think the whole ACC is weak and shouldn't get a spot... just that UNC has more appeal IMO than Clemson.
 
#19
#19
I think you absolutely nailed it. IMO if USC loses, we're in. No matter conference champs, Clemson or LSU. I think even a classic UM/OSU game knocks somebody out.

TCU doesn't have to lose, but it would be sure nice of them if they would.
 
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#24
#24
Sarms58 said:
I know the odds are very high, but you must include:
8) South Carolina
9) Vanderbilt

If we stumble, we're out...we need to knock these guys out early and keep punching (as one South Carolina fan fears)
Click to expand...


THIS.

Taking a bit of artistic license from "Remember the Titans":

"You make sure they remember, FOREVER, the night they played the Tennessee Volunteers!
LEAVE NO DOUBT!"
"Run it up Harmon-LEAVE NO DOUBT!"

Sorry Mizzou, SCar & Vandy.

We have to LEAVE NO DOUBT.
 
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#25
#25
sjt18 said:
Agree.

But should it really take more than a drive or two to figure that out?

The CB's have been a constant topic here. Some say talent. Some say scheme. I tend to the latter while recognizing the talent isn't "ideal"... but it never is. The pass D wasn't much if any better last year with Taylor pretty much covering one side.

All that said... I would be happy if they were just more aggressive at the LOS. Too often teams are picking up what they need after getting a completely free release. Lots of times if you aren't that "good"... you can make up the difference with aggression and pressure on the opponent.
Click to expand...
I have been saying it all year, we play the best when we’re agressive on defense. If we blitz, we must be in press man coverage, not zone. Also I do agree with your CB remarks; I don’t think we’re terrible at that spot but we’re definitely improving it from a talent aspect with this next class.
 
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