If theres any remaining drama to be wrung out of the regular season, its essentially the race for second place, and for the automatic bid to the Sugar Bowl that comes with it. Even when its not hosting a playoff semifinal, the Sugar still holds a traditional place of pride for the SEC, like the Rose Bowl does for teams in the Big Ten and Pac-12, as the longstanding destination for the conference champ. This year, like last year, the presumptive SEC champ has bigger fish to fry. But there are still five teams plausibly in the running for the leagues ticket to New Orleans, listed here in order of best position (that is, the team with the most control over its postseason options) to worst:
1. Florida. Dont worry: Im not about to suggest Florida has a real chance to upset Bama, or even to score on Bama without considerable help from the defense and special teams. In clinching the East, though, the Gators moved to the front of the runner-up line with fewer losses (two) and the highest non-Bama ranking this week (13th) in both the AP and Coaches polls. Thats a very different vibe for a team that entered the weekend ranked 21st, decimated by injuries, and pegged as a two-touchdown underdog in hostile territory.
That could all change very quickly this weekend in Tallahassee, of course, where Florida is a seven-point dog against FSU and no closer to filling the holes in the depth chart. Still, given how far the Seminoles have strayed from preseason expectations, another scrappy, defensively driven upset on the road is hardly out of the question. Neither is a reasonably competitive effort in Atlanta, which (assuming a win over Florida State in this scenario) would leave the Gators with a compelling Sugar Bowl case at 9-3. Thats not likely, as the point spreads suggest. But the opportunity is in front of them.
2. Auburn. For Auburn the equation is straightforward: Beat Bama to move to 9-3, and barring an even more unlikely upset by Florida seven days later the Sugar Bowl awaits. How much stock youre willing to put into that scenario is up to you, but Ill have more on the Tigers chances in Tuscaloosa later in the week.
3. Texas A&M. A&Ms standing with the committee is a little tougher to gauge: After two weeks of listening to complaints that they were overrated in the playoff rankings, the Aggies plunged an incredible 17 spots last week, from No. 8 to 25, on the heels of their third consecutive conference loss. Even with a couple of cupcake wins mixed in to stave off a full-blown losing streak, the old November Swoon narrative is back in full force.
As quickly as it fell, though, a win on Thursday night against LSU could send A&Ms stock back in the right direction, and also force the committee to reassess a résumé that includes head-to-head wins over (hypothetically) LSU, Auburn, and Tennessee. That last one is crucial, because for reasons I dont understand the Vols leapt six spots ahead of A&M last week in spite of their loss in College Station. If both teams finish 9-3, that order will be much harder to justify.
4. Tennessee. Admittedly, I seem to be in the minority in that assumption: Based on most of the snap bowl projections this weekend (including our best guess here at SDS) the Vols have the inside lane on New Orleans, needing only to a) Beat Vanderbilt this weekend, b) Watch Bama take care of business against Auburn and Florida, and c) Maintain their edge over A&M in the final playoff poll. The first two items on that list are very likely; the third is trickier, unless the Aggies render the question irrelevant by losing to LSU.
So yes, as it stands, Tennessee looks like the safest Sugar Bowl bet. Whether that would be enough to absolve Butch Jones for failing (again) to win a ripe-for-the-picking East Division is an open question.
5. LSU. At 6-4 with losses to Auburn and Florida already on the books, its probably safe to rule out the Tigers from the New Years Six conversation altogether.
