Strength of Schedule - #2 in the country

#2
#2
I would question any metric that doesn’t rank Alabama as having the toughest schedule in the nation. Ours has been very tough as well, although I’d say probably in the 5-10 range.
 
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#3
#3
berryvol said:
I would question any metric that doesn’t rank Alabama as having the toughest schedule in the nation. Ours has been very tough as well, although I’d say probably in the 5-10 range.
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Nova is about to go through a little soft spot in their schedule while we play UF, Texas and A&M

Real chance we end up on the #1 line soon
 
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#4
#4
berryvol said:
I would question any metric that doesn’t rank Alabama as having the toughest schedule in the nation. Ours has been very tough as well, although I’d say probably in the 5-10 range.
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Lmao....Bama played only played Gonzaga and Houston in notable non conference games. While we played Villanova, UNC, Texas Tech, and Arizona. Our schedule has definitely been tougher.
 
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#6
#6
SouthKnoxVOL said:
Lmao....Bama played only played Gonzaga and Houston in notable non conference games. While we played Villanova, UNC, Texas Tech, and Arizona. Our schedule has definitely been tougher.
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You need to take off the orange tinted glasses for this one. Outside of those 4 games (and you could say Colorado), we played nothing but cupcakes in OOC play. Miami, Iona, Davidson, Memphis, Drake, South Dakota State, Louisiana Tech are all top 100 KenPom teams and they played the toughest of those on neutral or away courts. Oakland is 104. Alabama has, by a wide margin, the toughest schedule in the country. They’ve basically had zero off nights all season.
 
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#7
#7
berryvol said:
I would question any metric that doesn’t rank Alabama as having the toughest schedule in the nation. Ours has been very tough as well, although I’d say probably in the 5-10 range.
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Tennessee has played 8 Top 50 opponents, 2 home and 6 road/neutral.

Alabama has played 7 Top 50 opponents, 4 home and 3 road/neutral.

Bama played more opponents 50-100 than Tennessee did, so if you put more stock into that then I can see where you’d come to that conclusion.
 
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#8
#8
bleedingTNorange said:
Tennessee has played 8 Top 50 opponents, 2 home and 6 road/neutral.

Alabama has played 7 Top 50 opponents, 4 home and 3 road/neutral.
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Yes, the top half of our schedules have both been very difficult. I’m not denying this. But as I stated above, move this down to top 75 or top 100. It’s not close.
 
#9
#9
berryvol said:
Yes, the top half of our schedules have both been very difficult. I’m not denying this. But as I stated above, move this down to top 75 or top 100. It’s not close.
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Yea I edited that into my post, if you put a lot of stock in playing teams 60-100 then I could see where you’d think Bama…I personally don’t find beating a 90th ranked team all that impressive from a SOS standpoint, what Alabama did is what Pearl used to be great at here, scheduling MM’s that were expected to be good but that you should beat.
 
#10
#10
bleedingTNorange said:
Yea I edited that into my post, if you put a lot of stock in playing teams 60-100 then I could see where you’d think Bama…I personally don’t find beating a 90th ranked team all that impressive from a SOS standpoint, what Alabama did is what Pearl used to be great at here, scheduling MM’s that were expected to be good but that you should beat.
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It’s not that I put a lot of stock into it, but South Dakota state, Drake, and Miami are objectively better wins than Tennessee tech, Presbyterian, and UT Martin. This is the reason Bama has several worse losses than us but is generally on the same seed line as us in everyone’s bracketology. I’m not arguing that our top 4-5 games have not been as tough as anyones, they certainly have.
 
#11
#11
berryvol said:
It’s not that I put a lot of stock into it, but South Dakota state, Drake, and Miami are objectively better wins than Tennessee tech, Presbyterian, and UT Martin. This is the reason Bama has several worse losses than us but is generally on the same seed line as us in everyone’s bracketology. I’m not arguing that our top 4-5 games have not been as tough as anyones, they certainly have.
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I guess that’s where the argument comes in, how much difference is there between 80 vs. 120, yes the 80 is stronger but how much? How does that weigh against 8 Top 50 vs. 7 Top 50? And then diving into that of those Top 50 how much credit for Tennessee playing 6/8 on the road and Bama only 3/7 on the road?

I think an argument can be made either way and it’s going to depend on the formula and how much weight is placed on different things, but I definitely think they’re comparable. I think it’s fair to say Tennessee’s is tougher at the top but Alabama’s is more balanced.
 
#12
#12
berryvol said:
I would question any metric that doesn’t rank Alabama as having the toughest schedule in the nation. Ours has been very tough as well, although I’d say probably in the 5-10 range.
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Bama's schedule got weighed down by playing Memphis while Memphis lied/backed out of our game....
 
#14
#14
bleedingTNorange said:
I guess that’s where the argument comes in, how much difference is there between 80 vs. 120, yes the 80 is stronger but how much? How does that weigh against 8 Top 50 vs. 7 Top 50? And then diving into that of those Top 50 how much credit for Tennessee playing 6/8 on the road and Bama only 3/7 on the road?

I think an argument can be made either way and it’s going to depend on the formula and how much weight is placed on different things, but I definitely think they’re comparable. I think it’s fair to say Tennessee’s is tougher at the top but Alabama’s is more balanced.
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From a win probability standpoint, say you have 10 game schedule. One schedule has 5 of the best teams in the country and the team is given a 10% chance to win those games and they schedule 5 of the worst and have a 90% chance to win. The cumulative expected win total is 5 games. The other schedule has 10 middle of the road opponents and is given a 50% chance to win each game. Expected win total is 5 games. Who has the harder schedule?
 
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#15
#15
golfballs said:
From a win probability standpoint, say you have 10 game schedule. One schedule has 5 of the best teams in the country and the team is given a 10% chance to win those games and they schedule 5 of the worst and have a 90% chance to win. The cumulative expected win total is 5 games. The other schedule has 10 middle of the road opponents and is given a 50% chance to win each game. Expected win total is 5 games. Who has the harder schedule?
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Yes.
 
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#16
#16
golfballs said:
From a win probability standpoint, say you have 10 game schedule. One schedule has 5 of the best teams in the country and the team is given a 10% chance to win those games and they schedule 5 of the worst and have a 90% chance to win. The cumulative expected win total is 5 games. The other schedule has 10 middle of the road opponents and is given a 50% chance to win each game. Expected win total is 5 games. Who has the harder schedule?
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I understand the point you’re trying to make, but that example is not indicative of the Vols/bama schedule differences.
 
#17
#17
Kas232323 said:
I understand the point you’re trying to make, but that example is not indicative of the Vols/bama schedule differences.
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Not exactly but the general rational behind SOS ratings is what the cumulative win probability would be for an average team against that schedule. Bama played a lot of games where the win probabilities were comfortably to their favor but very few that were 99% like we had against UT Martin, USC Upstate, etc. It makes a difference in the cumulative ratings.
 
#18
#18
golfballs said:
From a win probability standpoint, say you have 10 game schedule. One schedule has 5 of the best teams in the country and the team is given a 10% chance to win those games and they schedule 5 of the worst and have a 90% chance to win. The cumulative expected win total is 5 games. The other schedule has 10 middle of the road opponents and is given a 50% chance to win each game. Expected win total is 5 games. Who has the harder schedule?
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Imo the team with the 5 best teams, but jmo.
 
#21
#21
golfballs said:
Not exactly but the general rational behind SOS ratings is what the cumulative win probability would be for an average team against that schedule. Bama played a lot of games where the win probabilities were comfortably to their favor but very few that were 99% like we had against UT Martin, USC Upstate, etc. It makes a difference in the cumulative ratings.
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True. But if ours were 98%, most of theirs would’ve been in the 80’s so not much of a difference. JMO
 
#23
#23
berryvol said:
Yes, the top half of our schedules have both been very difficult. I’m not denying this. But as I stated above, move this down to top 75 or top 100. It’s not close.
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top 75? top 100? At that point, while those aren't gimme games, they are games a good team is expected to win. I'm sure the sos rankings place more emphasis on higher ranked teams, which they should.
 
#24
#24
RockyTop140 said:
top 75? top 100? At that point, while those aren't gimme games, they are games a good team is expected to win. I'm sure the sos rankings place more emphasis on higher ranked teams, which they should.
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Not to keep this going all night, but the source that ranks these teams has Alabama as, far and away, the highest SOS in the nation and Tennessee with the eighth. I didn’t mean to cause an all day thing with my statements, the whole point was that Alabama has had zero “gimme” wins on their schedule and that’s something that most analytics rankings are going to heavily favor in SOS.
 
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