Stats - Offense is Not the Issue

[Rifleman]

Thanks, Rifleman, interesting OP.

No problem. Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I agree that the O-Line is going to be a continuing concern and is a key weakness to date. Dobbs' mobility and pure will to win has been something to watch and he is likely papering over a lot of their deficiencies.

That the defense is struggling is more surprising but maybe it shouldn't be with AJ gone and the various injuries.

Against Georgia, I think we were improved on both sides of the ball (both coaches and players) so I think some of our growing pains of trying to figure out how to win with the personnel that we have now are paying off. We just aren't good enough to play conservative yet in the SEC. I think the whole coaching staff misjudged that point.

I have a feeling that we are going to like the last 6 games of 2015 a whole lot better than the first 6.

 

[VolFreakJosh]

There were bad coaching decisions without a doubt, but this has become a narrative with the fans and press that doesn't tell the whole story the way numbers always do.

The defense also had dozens of opportunities - literally dozens I've watched the replays until I had to order more barf bags - to end both of those games and they could not do it.

The offensive play-calling was flawed in part because I believe Butch thought the defense would be even better than last year's, but somehow they keep turning into a Sal Sunseri defense in the second half.

I think Debord and Butch realize now that they will have to remain aggressive wire to wire as they were (mostly) against Georgia.

Statistically we have one of the worst defenses in the country and one of the better offenses.

That is right there in the numbers.

You're right OP. Thank you for the info.

 

[JonGrudensAgent]

Tackling and effort on defense has been poor all season. The gang tackling and hustle we have seen the first two years is sorely lacking.

Is it a lack of leadership or focus? No clue but it needs to improve in this off week or there will be more bumps in the road before the season is over.

The end of the GA was flat out pathetic. Letting them off the half yard line to drive to a manageable TD attempt to tie the game almost turned into as much of a coaching gaffe as anything that happened in the other games.

I don't think the offense should get a pass because the defense has been bad though. It's been one dimensional and not explosive enough to go out and win games for the team to cover the defense for most of the season. Hopefully, the Georgia game is a sign of things to come.

 

[Rifleman]

Exactly! Generally stats can be twisted to fit any agenda.

Yet, it is not mathematics that causes dishonesty.

When someone is dishonest you can remove or disprove their stats and their agenda remains the same. This is called cognitive dissonance. No proof will change the mind of someone set in a false belief--they will just change their proof to another until that too is proven false.

I will be happy to consider any contrary arguments backed up by stats that prove that Tennessee's defense has been better than their offense so far in 2015.

 

[kamoshika]

The offense has been better but the defense is certainly not the lone culprit. Going into the Georgia game, we'd bogged down too often on offense in the 2nd half and squandered too many red-zone opportunities. The passing game has sometimes been nonexistent and the running game seemingly mired in the mud.

Other than the struggles we've seen in the passing game (especially pre-Georgia), we're still middle-of-the-pack or worse in some key areas offensively. National rankings:
* 56th in red-zone TD conversion % (62.5%)
* 59th in yards per rush (4.59), 84th in yards per rush in 2nd half (4.14)
* 72nd in yards per play (5.54)
* 116th in TFL yards allowed (175)

While last Saturday's offensive performance was very encouraging, I'm not hanging my hat on that being proof of similar performances to come.

 

[daj2576]

Yet, it is not mathematics that causes dishonesty.

When someone is dishonest you can remove or disprove their stats and their agenda remains the same. This is called cognitive dissonance. No proof will change the mind of someone set in a false belief--they will just change their proof to another until that too is proven false.

I will be happy to consider any contrary arguments backed up by stats that prove that Tennessee's defense has been better than their offense so far in 2015.

So true. Mathematics doesn't cause dishonesty, but a misunderstanding of the same math condones dishonesty. That is why it's so easy for outlets like ESPN to continue covering sports, as few can really see how bad they are at differentiating causation and correlation.

You're using two things that the average football fan who posts on a message board roundly rejects in a similar way as those accused of practicing witchcraft in Salem: reason and math.

I've given up.

There are 'cargo cults' isolated on some Pacific island who are more reasonable. The echo chamber of message board, sports talk radio, and back again, violently excludes foreign ideas, no matter how correct or refined.

 

[McDad]

So true. Mathematics doesn't cause dishonesty, but a misunderstanding of the same math condones dishonesty. That is why it's so easy for outlets like ESPN to continue covering sports, as few can really see how bad they are at differentiating causation and correlation.

You're using two things that the average football fan who posts on a message board roundly rejects in a similar way as those accused of practicing witchcraft in Salem: reason and math.

I've given up.

There are 'cargo cults' isolated on some Pacific island who are more reasonable. The echo chamber of message board, sports talk radio, and back again, violently excludes foreign ideas, no matter how correct or refined.

Don't give up on us Daj. Like Obi Wan Kenobi, you're our only hope.

Hope your daughter is growing well. She's just over a year now, right?

 

[ORANGE PHOENIX]

Just an observation from the Florida series. Since 2009 (after Fulmer) we have averaged 52.3 yards rushing and scored an average of 16.5 points per game. Would the majority of us had a W for this years game, with 254 yards rushing and 27 points. I think if I was asked before the game would those numbers get us a win, I would have said yes.

 

[SemperFi UT]

i don't disagree.

but they also don't capture all the execution issues the team has had either. did the coaches make wrong calls? sure. but even so, had the players made some plays, we could have overcome. missed fg's, penalties bringing back punt returns, fumbles in the red zone, really bad tackling...dropped interceptions.....

i'll just keep saying it...3-3 has been a total team effort.

No matter how good or how bad the coaching calls are, at some point the players have to make the plays. Can't let teams be perfect on several 4th down plays and expect to win a close game. Offense has to have time consuming drives in the 4th quarter to rest the defense.

 

[daj2576]

Don't give up on us Daj. Like Obi Wan Kenobi, you're our only hope.

Hope your daughter is growing well. She's just over a year now, right?

Wow, thanks for asking about my baby girl. Yes, she just turned one about a week ago, and she is doing fantastic-walking and babbling like a brook. That's amazing that you remembered.

Other than that, I think you're in good hands with Rifleman. Now that I'm out of law school, passed the bar, and still crunching numbers for my job, I just don't have the energy or interest to argue with people on here.

That said, I enjoy lurking and reading some of the nonsense. By enjoy, I mean hate. And, while I do read through here occasionally, I don't have the time or interest to do it too often.

I hope all is well with you and yours!

 

[volmandu]

Statistical Categories Where We've Improved over 2014:

Phase - Stat Categories - FBS 2013 Rank (Stat) - 2014 Rank (Stat) - 2015 Rank (Stat)

Offense - Interceptions Thrown - 107th (17) - 84th (14)-10th (2)
Offense - Rushing Offense - 44th (188.4 yards) - 89th (146.4 yards)-21st (222 yards)
Offense - Yards per Completed Pass - 115th (10.36 yards) - 116th (10.37 yards)-65th (12.04 yards)
Offense - Sacks Allowed - 21st (1.25 per game) - 117th (3.31 per game)-63rd (1.83 per game)
Offense - Total Offense - 102nd (353.3 yards) - 90th (370.5 yards)-44th (437.7 yards)
Offense - Scoring Offense - 94th (23.8 pts) - 62nd (28.9 pts)-23rd (37.2 pts)
Offense - Third Down Conversion % - 92nd (35.8%) - 78th (38.9%)-41st (42.9%)
Special Teams - Kickoff Returns - 35th (23.27 yards) - 30th (22.69 yards)-2nd (37.25 yards)
Offense - Tackles for Loss Allowed - 37th (5.25 per game) - 122nd (7.77 per game)-100th (6.83 per game)
Special Teams - Punt Returns - 51st (8.94 yards) - 37th (9.68 yards)-18th (16.25 yards)
Offense/Special Teams - Turnovers Lost - 87th (24) - 61st (22)-12th (5)
Defense - Third Down Conversion Defense - 91st (42.5% Allowed) - 33rd (34.4% Allowed)-19th (28.7% Allowed)
Special Teams - Punting Net Yards - 28th (38.48 yards) - 36th (38.59 yards)-23rd (40.41 yds)
Offense - Fourth Down Conversion % - 76th (45.5%) - 33rd (58.3%)-21st (71.4%)
ALL - Turnover Margin - 54th (+ 0.08 per game) - 53rd (+ 0.15 per game)-41st (+ 0.5 per game)
Offense - Passing Efficiency - 111th (105.48 rating) - 70th (126.64 rating)-63rd (133.80 rating)

Statistical Categories Where We're About the Same as 2014:

Phase - Stat Categories - FBS 2013 Rank (Stat) - 2014 Rank (Stat) - 2015 Rank (Stat)

ALL - Penalty Yards per Game - 21st (37.92 yards) - 6th (34.15 yards)-8th (35.67)
Special Teams - Kickoff Return Defense - 118th (25.43 yards) - 23rd (18.81 yards)-27th (18.36 yards)
Defense - Rushing Defense - 100th (207.3 ypg) - 65th (168.4 ypg)-74th (170.5 ypg)
Offense - Passing Offense - 109th (164.9 ypg) - 70th (224.2 ypg)-81st (212.7 ypg)
Defense - Scoring Defense - 78th (29.0 pts) - 35th (24.2 pts)-66th (25.7 pts)
Offense - Red Zone Offense - 100th (77.3%) - 5th (92.6%)-37th (87.5%)

Statistical Categories Where We Were Better in 2014:

Phase - Stat Categories - FBS 2013 Rank (Stat) - 2014 Rank (Stat) - 2015 Rank (Stat)

Defense/Special Teams - Turnovers Gained - 35th (25) - 34th (24)-69th (8 )
Defense - Passing Efficiency Defense - 58th (125.47 rating) - 24th (115.67 rating)-61st (121.81 rating)
Offense - Completion Percentage - 91st (55.5%) - 32nd (62.0%)-75th (58.6%)
Defense - Total Defense - 83rd (418.4 yards per game) - 36th (364.6 yards per game)-91st (419 yards per game)
Defense - Passes Intercepted - 40th (14) - 15th (16)-76th (4)
Defense - Sacks - 99th (1.5 per game) - 29th (2.69 per game)-95th (1.5 per game)
Defense - Passing Yards Allowed - 27th (211.1) - 23rd (196.2 )-92nd (248.5 yards)
Defense - Tackles for Loss - 90th (5.4 per game) - 21st (7.0 per game)-101st (4.8 per game)
Defense - Fourth Down Conversion Defense - 117th (75.00% Allowed) - 26th (40.0% Allowed)-124th (84.6% Allowed)
Special Teams - Punt Return Defense - 92nd (9.91 yards) - 11th (3.23 yards)-112th (14.58 yards)

Notice Anything? As angry as many of us have been about the Offensive playcalling, we would be undefeated with last year's defense and no one would be talking about those calls. Not that they shouldn't be, but the defense has been glaringly inept.

The good news? After Bama our toughest remaining opponent is Kentucky.

We are still looking at and 9-4 season with a bowl win if we can find some answers on the defensive side of the ball that allow us to get off the field in the 4th quarter and stop giving up the long ball over the top.

Discuss.

Good job with the numbers but number without context can be misleading. Those of us who watched the OU, FL and Arkansas game will tell you that these numbers do not tell the full story.
OU game for example, they only had 3 points till late in 4th quarter. That is one of the most explosive offenses we will face. Offense did not do a good job taking away the game from them. Finally they were able to settle down in clutch moments and steal the game.
Same story with Florida game. Defense did make mistakes in late 4th quarter but it was offensive play calling that did not take the game out of reach.
With 2 TDs up in both games, if we had one or two sustained long time killing drives in later 4th quarter, it would end it. OU never would have gotten the ball to do more than 3 points and FL would be stuck on 14.

So yes, numbers only tell half the story.

 

[McDad]

Wow, thanks for asking about my baby girl. Yes, she just turned one about a week ago, and she is doing fantastic-walking and babbling like a brook. That's amazing that you remembered.

Other than that, I think you're in good hands with Rifleman. Now that I'm out of law school, passed the bar, and still crunching numbers for my job, I just don't have the energy or interest to argue with people on here.

That said, I enjoy lurking and reading some of the nonsense. By enjoy, I mean hate. And, while I do read through here occasionally, I don't have the time or interest to do it too often.

I hope all is well with you and yours!

Great to hear she is growing up healthy. My baby girl is checking into colleges. 17 years goes by in a flash.

You bring great perspective. I understand your job is crunching numbers so doing it here doesn't constitute "down time". But reconsider posting good stuff. We can argue on your behalf, my friend.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

There were bad coaching decisions without a doubt, but this has become a narrative with the fans and press that doesn't tell the whole story the way numbers always do.

The defense also had dozens of opportunities - literally dozens I've watched the replays until I had to order more barf bags - to end both of those games and they could not do it.

The offensive play-calling was flawed in part because I believe Butch thought the defense would be even better than last year's, but somehow they keep turning into a Sal Sunseri defense in the second half.

I think Debord and Butch realize now that they will have to remain aggressive wire to wire as they were (mostly) against Georgia.

Statistically we have one of the worst defenses in the country and one of the better offenses.

That is right there in the numbers.

This argument can be countered with the offense had plenty of opportunities to put the game out of reach and not have to rely solely on the defense to win it. Frankly against OU, UF and Arky, if I was a defensive player on UT I would have been pissed off. Knowing that my guys went out and gave the offense chance after chance to score and they didnt? Sorry but thats bad offensive play calling.

Now, if the offensive production had been poor the entire game, then I think your argument holds a little more weight. But as it stands, I have to put the majority of the blame for the losses on the offensive side of the ball. Is our defense bad? Yes. However, I think the stats would not look quite as bad if the offense had been doing a better job. JMO.

 

[JonGrudensAgent]

No problem. Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I agree that the O-Line is going to be a continuing concern and is a key weakness to date. Dobbs' mobility and pure will to win has been something to watch and he is likely papering over a lot of their deficiencies.

That the defense is struggling is more surprising but maybe it shouldn't be with AJ gone and the various injuries.

Against Georgia, I think we were improved on both sides of the ball (both coaches and players) so I think some of our growing pains of trying to figure out how to win with the personnel that we have now are paying off. We just aren't good enough to play conservative yet in the SEC. I think the whole coaching staff misjudged that point.

I have a feeling that we are going to like the last 6 games of 2015 a whole lot better than the first 6.

The level of competition drops off the second half of the season every year.

It's the nature of the schedule for UT every single year I have followed them so the results should invariably be better.

 

[Rifleman]

This argument can be countered with the offense had plenty of opportunities to put the game out of reach and not have to rely solely on the defense to win it. Frankly against OU, UF and Arky, if I was a defensive player on UT I would have been pissed off. Knowing that my guys went out and gave the offense chance after chance to score and they didnt? Sorry but thats bad offensive play calling.

Now, if the offensive production had been poor the entire game, then I think your argument holds a little more weight. But as it stands, I have to put the majority of the blame for the losses on the offensive side of the ball. Is our defense bad? Yes. However, I think the stats would not look quite as bad if the offense had been doing a better job. JMO.

Here's how I see this:

1) Our offense is really good, but:
a) a lack of O-line experience and depth causes them to sputter late in games
b) if a team commits to blitzing we can't pick it up in the 4th quarter
c) any team which gets behind will blitz in the 4th quarter, exposing that weakness

2) Our defense is really bad, and especially against the pass, but:
a) our offense is great at running the ball and burning TOS early in the game
b) our special teams are controlling field position for most of the game
c) and the defense is not so bad against the run which helps early in the game
d) yet when a team gets behind and abandons the run they torch our secondary and storm back

We've had three games where the offense got a huge lead and we needed the defense to get stops to close out the game. We lost all those games.

We just had a game where we fell into a hole and need the offense to put up a lot of points to get back in it. We won that game.

At this point, I trust our offense a lot more than our defense.

 

[thebjd]

The problem has been knowing we can put a team away and not doing it. We have seen the offense move the ball but go dormant when it is time to close a team out. This team is much better than I thought we would be and has been handicapped by second half coaching and playing not to lose. The players play tight as well. The Georgia game was liberating from the offensive side of the ball.

 

[MyBloodRunnethOrange]

stop playing randolph and mcneil, missed tackles will go down immediately

Yeah, about that. If Randoph isn't in on that last play we might be looking at 2-4 right now.

 

[UTCVol]

Butch's philosophy is at fault for the Oklahoma game. Playing Colton Jumper was pretty stupid too.

The defense is primarily at fault for the Florida game. Butch made some individual bad decisions as well.

I blame defense and moronic playcalling (no Dobbs running game) for Arkansas.

 

[Other_Guy]

Yes the stats show that the offense has improved by a lot but, look at our scoring trend in the four important games this season. We scored a grand total of 13 points in the second half of games (not including GA). You wont win close games with defense on the field for all the time the offense is not doing its job (scoring points). The only game the offense played well in the 2nd half we won and beat an opponent with the similar talent level as us and a coaching staff that can scheme well and learn tendencies of a defense.

1st 2nd 3rd 4th OT T W/L
OU 10 7 0 0 7 24 L
FL 7 10 3 7 27 L
ARK 14 3 3 0 20 L
GA 3 14 14 7 38 W:dance2:

I do agree that the offense is better but they have not been good against good teams.

24 points against Oklahoma
27 Points against Floridas defense who stomped Ole Miss.
38 points against Georgia.
I can't remember if one of those had a special teams TD return, but with te exception of the offense underperforming against Arkansas, while they haven't been "great" calling them "not good" is a little ridiculous.

 

[Denton'sGhostGBO]

Bottom line must score 30 points...
Not sure of the exact number, but we have maybe lost a handful of games in my lifetime if we score 30 or more..

 

[ScreaminVolHawkins]

Yeah, about that. If Randoph isn't in on that last play we might be looking at 2-4 right now.

I mean some of these kids are saying bad coaching decisions have cost us games and then go on to say stuff like bench Randolph. Has it always been then much 2nd guessing or when ESPN turned into LIFETIME network all these people started thinking they were experts?

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Great to hear she is growing up healthy. My baby girl is checking into colleges. 17 years goes by in a flash.

You bring great perspective. I understand your job is crunching numbers so doing it here doesn't constitute "down time". But reconsider posting good stuff. We can argue on your behalf, my friend.

Seconded. We miss having you around, DAJ.

 

[daj2576]

Seconded. We miss having you around, DAJ.

That's nice of you to say.

But, I have to ask myself if there is any value to the time I spent writing here, or blogging.

The answer is a resounding negative.

I've already given out the keys to the castle, so to speak. The fact that after a few years, so few are really interested in coming inside, means that my efforts have little ROI. C'est la vie.

Honestly, after this summer of stress I'm just enjoying being a fan of this season. Its a relief to not feel obligated to write to calm the pitchfork wielding 'Legion of the Miserable."