Stats - Offense is Not the Issue

[Rifleman]

Statistical Categories Where We've Improved over 2014:

Phase - Stat Categories - FBS 2013 Rank (Stat) - 2014 Rank (Stat) - 2015 Rank (Stat)

Offense - Interceptions Thrown - 107th (17) - 84th (14)-10th (2)
Offense - Rushing Offense - 44th (188.4 yards) - 89th (146.4 yards)-21st (222 yards)
Offense - Yards per Completed Pass - 115th (10.36 yards) - 116th (10.37 yards)-65th (12.04 yards)
Offense - Sacks Allowed - 21st (1.25 per game) - 117th (3.31 per game)-63rd (1.83 per game)
Offense - Total Offense - 102nd (353.3 yards) - 90th (370.5 yards)-44th (437.7 yards)
Offense - Scoring Offense - 94th (23.8 pts) - 62nd (28.9 pts)-23rd (37.2 pts)
Offense - Third Down Conversion % - 92nd (35.8%) - 78th (38.9%)-41st (42.9%)
Special Teams - Kickoff Returns - 35th (23.27 yards) - 30th (22.69 yards)-2nd (37.25 yards)
Offense - Tackles for Loss Allowed - 37th (5.25 per game) - 122nd (7.77 per game)-100th (6.83 per game)
Special Teams - Punt Returns - 51st (8.94 yards) - 37th (9.68 yards)-18th (16.25 yards)
Offense/Special Teams - Turnovers Lost - 87th (24) - 61st (22)-12th (5)
Defense - Third Down Conversion Defense - 91st (42.5% Allowed) - 33rd (34.4% Allowed)-19th (28.7% Allowed)
Special Teams - Punting Net Yards - 28th (38.48 yards) - 36th (38.59 yards)-23rd (40.41 yds)
Offense - Fourth Down Conversion % - 76th (45.5%) - 33rd (58.3%)-21st (71.4%)
ALL - Turnover Margin - 54th (+ 0.08 per game) - 53rd (+ 0.15 per game)-41st (+ 0.5 per game)
Offense - Passing Efficiency - 111th (105.48 rating) - 70th (126.64 rating)-63rd (133.80 rating)

Statistical Categories Where We're About the Same as 2014:

Phase - Stat Categories - FBS 2013 Rank (Stat) - 2014 Rank (Stat) - 2015 Rank (Stat)

ALL - Penalty Yards per Game - 21st (37.92 yards) - 6th (34.15 yards)-8th (35.67)
Special Teams - Kickoff Return Defense - 118th (25.43 yards) - 23rd (18.81 yards)-27th (18.36 yards)
Defense - Rushing Defense - 100th (207.3 ypg) - 65th (168.4 ypg)-74th (170.5 ypg)
Offense - Passing Offense - 109th (164.9 ypg) - 70th (224.2 ypg)-81st (212.7 ypg)
Defense - Scoring Defense - 78th (29.0 pts) - 35th (24.2 pts)-66th (25.7 pts)
Offense - Red Zone Offense - 100th (77.3%) - 5th (92.6%)-37th (87.5%)

Statistical Categories Where We Were Better in 2014:

Phase - Stat Categories - FBS 2013 Rank (Stat) - 2014 Rank (Stat) - 2015 Rank (Stat)

Defense/Special Teams - Turnovers Gained - 35th (25) - 34th (24)-69th (8 )
Defense - Passing Efficiency Defense - 58th (125.47 rating) - 24th (115.67 rating)-61st (121.81 rating)
Offense - Completion Percentage - 91st (55.5%) - 32nd (62.0%)-75th (58.6%)
Defense - Total Defense - 83rd (418.4 yards per game) - 36th (364.6 yards per game)-91st (419 yards per game)
Defense - Passes Intercepted - 40th (14) - 15th (16)-76th (4)
Defense - Sacks - 99th (1.5 per game) - 29th (2.69 per game)-95th (1.5 per game)
Defense - Passing Yards Allowed - 27th (211.1) - 23rd (196.2 )-92nd (248.5 yards)
Defense - Tackles for Loss - 90th (5.4 per game) - 21st (7.0 per game)-101st (4.8 per game)
Defense - Fourth Down Conversion Defense - 117th (75.00% Allowed) - 26th (40.0% Allowed)-124th (84.6% Allowed)
Special Teams - Punt Return Defense - 92nd (9.91 yards) - 11th (3.23 yards)-112th (14.58 yards)

Notice Anything? As angry as many of us have been about the Offensive playcalling, we would be undefeated with last year's defense and no one would be talking about those calls. Not that they shouldn't be, but the defense has been glaringly inept.

The good news? After Bama our toughest remaining opponent is Kentucky.

We are still looking at and 9-4 season with a bowl win if we can find some answers on the defensive side of the ball that allow us to get off the field in the 4th quarter and stop giving up the long ball over the top.

Discuss.

 

[VolFreakJosh]

Bad coaching decisions is what cost us the Florida and the Oklahoma game.

 

[Rifleman]

Bad coaching decisions is what cost us the Florida and the Oklahoma game.

There were bad coaching decisions without a doubt, but this has become a narrative with the fans and press that doesn't tell the whole story the way numbers always do.

The defense also had dozens of opportunities - literally dozens I've watched the replays until I had to order more barf bags - to end both of those games and they could not do it.

The offensive play-calling was flawed in part because I believe Butch thought the defense would be even better than last year's, but somehow they keep turning into a Sal Sunseri defense in the second half.

I think Debord and Butch realize now that they will have to remain aggressive wire to wire as they were (mostly) against Georgia.

Statistically we have one of the worst defenses in the country and one of the better offenses.

That is right there in the numbers.

 

[BearcatVol]

Good comparison. Thanks

 

[jakez4ut]

stats are for losers.

 

[IndieB]

Yes the stats show that the offense has improved by a lot but, look at our scoring trend in the four important games this season. We scored a grand total of 13 points in the second half of games (not including GA). You wont win close games with defense on the field for all the time the offense is not doing its job (scoring points). The only game the offense played well in the 2nd half we won and beat an opponent with the similar talent level as us and a coaching staff that can scheme well and learn tendencies of a defense.

1st 2nd 3rd 4th OT T W/L
OU 10 7 0 0 7 24 L
FL 7 10 3 7 27 L
ARK 14 3 3 0 20 L
GA 3 14 14 7 38 W:dance2:

I do agree that the offense is better but they have not been good against good teams.

 

[TAF]

Stats can't demonstrate the poor coaching decisions that cost the Florida, Arkansas and Oklahoma games, now can they?

W-L record does though...3-3...

 

[Rifleman]

Stats can't demonstrate the poor coaching decisions that cost the Florida, Arkansas and Oklahoma games, now can they?

W-L record does though...3-3...

Actually, all that is captured within statistics. Sigh

The fact that you argue that stats are irrelevant, then post the W-L record . . . . WHICH IS A @@@@ING STAT!!! . . . . makes me realize that this is a lost cause.

I'm just not sure how much time I should waste posting numbers when most are only using their emotions when it comes to Tennessee Football. I get it. I'm pissed about the playcalling too, but the offense has been good enough to be 6-0. The defense has not.

 

[jakez4ut]

Stats can't demonstrate the poor coaching decisions that cost the Florida, Arkansas and Oklahoma games, now can they?

W-L record does though...3-3...

i don't disagree.

but they also don't capture all the execution issues the team has had either. did the coaches make wrong calls? sure. but even so, had the players made some plays, we could have overcome. missed fg's, penalties bringing back punt returns, fumbles in the red zone, really bad tackling...dropped interceptions.....

i'll just keep saying it...3-3 has been a total team effort.

 

[turdherder11]

There were bad coaching decisions without a doubt, but this has become a narrative with the fans and press that doesn't tell the whole story the way numbers always do.

The defense also had dozens of opportunities - literally dozens I've watched the replays until I had to order more barf bags - to end both of those games and they could not do it.

The offensive play-calling was flawed in part because I believe Butch thought the defense would be even better than last year's, but somehow they keep turning into a Sal Sunseri defense in the second half.

I think Debord and Butch realize now that they will have to remain aggressive wire to wire as they were (mostly) against Georgia.

Statistically we have one of the worst defenses in the country and one of the better offenses.

That is right there in the numbers.

stop playing randolph and mcneil, missed tackles will go down immediately

 

[Aerie Vol]

Bad coaching decisions is what cost us the Florida and the Oklahoma game.

And this is an example of how to "see" the OP's doctoral dissertation and "raise" him copy of Goodnight Moon.

Thanks for the hard work, OP. Enlightening to those who will observe.

AV

 

[Rifleman]

Yes the stats show that the offense has improved by a lot but, look at our scoring trend in the four important games this season. We scored a grand total of 13 points in the second half of games (not including GA). You wont win close games with defense on the field for all the time the offense is not doing its job (scoring points). The only game the offense played well in the 2nd half we won and beat an opponent with the similar talent level as us and a coaching staff that can scheme well and learn tendencies of a defense.

1st 2nd 3rd 4th OT T W/L
OU 10 7 0 0 7 24 L
FL 7 10 3 7 27 L
ARK 14 3 3 0 20 L
GA 3 14 14 7 38 W:dance2:

I do agree that the offense is better but they have not been good against good teams.

The defense also helps the offense lose its rhythm when they can't get off the field and they let momentum swing to other team. We are 83rd in 4th quarter time of possession.

I'm not saying the offense has been perfect--they have shown terrible blocking and execution at times in the second half--but along with the stellar special teams play they have put up enough points to be 6-0 with an average defense.

It doesn't make a lot of sense to me that we are overlooking those shortcomings now. We were all pissed about the pass defense after the Bowling Green game, and it really has not improved at all.

 

[wheaton]

Thanks for gathering and reporting these stats, I like when people use actual numerical data to make their arguments.

However, it's hard to definitively point to defensive performance as the source of our woes when the most important defensive indicator (scoring defense) has not significantly changed. That leads me to one of two conclusions: a)the defensive stats that have gotten worse don't have a significant effect on scoring defense or b)the decreases in those stats from 2014 to 2015 are not as significant as they look. I would lean towards b.

 

[Rifleman]

i don't disagree.

but they also don't capture all the execution issues the team has had either. did the coaches make wrong calls? sure. but even so, had the players made some plays, we could have overcome. missed fg's, penalties bringing back punt returns, fumbles in the red zone, really bad tackling...dropped interceptions.....

i'll just keep saying it...3-3 has been a total team effort.

 

[WildTurkey]

The defense also helps the offense lose its rhythm when they can't get off the field and they let momentum swing to other team. We are 83rd in 4th quarter time of possession.

I'm not saying the offense has been perfect--they have shown terrible blocking and execution at times in the second half--but along with the stellar special teams play they have put up enough points to be 6-0 with an average defense.

It doesn't make a lot of sense to me that we are overlooking those shortcomings now. We were all pissed about the pass defense after the Bowling Green game, and it really has not improved at all.

Same could be said for poorly timed three-and-outs. Plenty of blame to go around.

 

[Shocker0]

I've been saying this for weeks yet people want to bash DeBord just because he wasn't a popular hire. I admit, I wasn't a fan of him either when hired, but you have to look at the stats! The offense is overall far and away the best it's been since Jones got here, and our O-Line even looks semi competent this year. DeBord has actually done a good job and our offense has put up more points through 6 games than it has since like 1930.

People are having rouble putting some of the blame on defense because we returned almost everybody to a unit that was pretty good last year, but stats don't lie. Our defense not making plays on 4th down or other critical times in the game have cost us more than one game this year.

 

[Rifleman]

Also, Kudos to Josh Dobbs for this.

Offense - Interceptions Thrown - 107th (17) - 84th (14)-10th (2)

The pic he threw against Georgia was on a freak ricochet too! I hope he can keep that pace and only throw 2 more in the final 6.

 

[jakez4ut]

:hi: as this season has played out, and including the NFL...i look at my steelers.

the baltimore game they go for broke more times than not and lose. and i was pretty critical of Tomlin in that game. i think he lost it.

then look at monday night, he does it again, and Bell delivers a walk off touchdown to win the game.

the GA game saturday....we punt with 2 min to go, needing less than a yard to ice the game. i wasn't real happy about that. until i saw the punt...GREAT CALL COACH!!

anyway, do coaches make mistakes? yeah. do they cost teams games? yeah, they do.

but if players make plays, and execute in those moments where it does matter....it's amazing how smart the coaches are and how good the players are.

so....make good decisions, and when you get a chance...make a freaking play. Tomlin went for the win. Jones went for the safe play. Trevor Daniel made a play. LeVeon Bell made a play. Brian Randolph made a play. and that's what wins games.

 

[theFallGuy]

Statistical Categories Where We've Improved over 2014:

Phase - Stat Categories - FBS 2013 Rank (Stat) - 2014 Rank (Stat) - 2015 Rank (Stat)

Offense - Interceptions Thrown - 107th (17) - 84th (14)-10th (2)
Offense - Rushing Offense - 44th (188.4 yards) - 89th (146.4 yards)-21st (222 yards)
Offense - Yards per Completed Pass - 115th (10.36 yards) - 116th (10.37 yards)-65th (12.04 yards)
Offense - Sacks Allowed - 21st (1.25 per game) - 117th (3.31 per game)-63rd (1.83 per game)
Offense - Total Offense - 102nd (353.3 yards) - 90th (370.5 yards)-44th (437.7 yards)
Offense - Scoring Offense - 94th (23.8 pts) - 62nd (28.9 pts)-23rd (37.2 pts)
Offense - Third Down Conversion % - 92nd (35.8%) - 78th (38.9%)-41st (42.9%)
Special Teams - Kickoff Returns - 35th (23.27 yards) - 30th (22.69 yards)-2nd (37.25 yards)
Offense - Tackles for Loss Allowed - 37th (5.25 per game) - 122nd (7.77 per game)-100th (6.83 per game)
Special Teams - Punt Returns - 51st (8.94 yards) - 37th (9.68 yards)-18th (16.25 yards)
Offense/Special Teams - Turnovers Lost - 87th (24) - 61st (22)-12th (5)
Defense - Third Down Conversion Defense - 91st (42.5% Allowed) - 33rd (34.4% Allowed)-19th (28.7% Allowed)
Special Teams - Punting Net Yards - 28th (38.48 yards) - 36th (38.59 yards)-23rd (40.41 pts)
Offense - Fourth Down Conversion % - 76th (45.5%) - 33rd (58.3%)-21st (71.4%)
ALL - Turnover Margin - 54th (+ 0.08 per game) - 53rd (+ 0.15 per game)-41st (+ 0.5 per game)
Offense - Passing Efficiency - 111th (105.48 rating) - 70th (126.64 rating)-63rd (133.80 rating)

Statistical Categories Where We're About the Same as 2014:

Phase - Stat Categories - FBS 2013 Rank (Stat) - 2014 Rank (Stat) - 2015 Rank (Stat)

ALL - Penalty Yards per Game - 21st (37.92 yards) - 6th (34.15 yards)-8th (35.67)
Special Teams - Kickoff Return Defense - 118th (25.43 yards) - 23rd (18.81 yards)-27th (18.36 yards)
Defense - Rushing Defense - 100th (207.3 ypg) - 65th (168.4 ypg)-74th (170.5 ypg)
Offense - Passing Offense - 109th (164.9 ypg) - 70th (224.2 ypg)-81st (212.7 ypg)
Defense - Scoring Defense - 78th (29.0 pts) - 35th (24.2 pts)-66th (25.7 pts)
Offense - Red Zone Offense - 100th (77.3%) - 5th (92.6%)-37th (87.5%)

Statistical Categories Where We Were Better in 2014:

Phase - Stat Categories - FBS 2013 Rank (Stat) - 2014 Rank (Stat) - 2015 Rank (Stat)

Defense/Special Teams - Turnovers Gained - 35th (25) - 34th (24)-69th (8 )
Defense - Passing Efficiency Defense - 58th (125.47 rating) - 24th (115.67 rating)-61st (121.81 rating)
Offense - Completion Percentage - 91st (55.5%) - 32nd (62.0%)-75th (58.6%)
Defense - Total Defense - 83rd (418.4 yards per game) - 36th (364.6 yards per game)-91st (419 yards per game)
Defense - Passes Intercepted - 40th (14) - 15th (16)-76th (4)
Defense - Sacks - 99th (1.5 per game) - 29th (2.69 per game)-95th (1.5 per game)
Defense - Passing Yards Allowed - 27th (211.1) - 23rd (196.2 )-92nd (248.5 yards)
Defense - Tackles for Loss - 90th (5.4 per game) - 21st (7.0 per game)-101st (4.8 per game)
Defense - Fourth Down Conversion Defense - 117th (75.00% Allowed) - 26th (40.0% Allowed)-124th (84.6% Allowed)
Special Teams - Punt Return Defense - 92nd (9.91 yards) - 11th (3.23 yards)-112th (14.58 yards)

Notice Anything? As angry as many of us have been about the Offensive playcalling, we would be undefeated with last year's defense and no one would be talking about those calls. Not that they shouldn't be, but the defense has been glaringly inept.

The good news? After Bama our toughest remaining opponent is Kentucky.

We are still looking at and 9-4 season with a bowl win if we can find some answers on the defensive side of the ball that allow us to get off the field in the 4th quarter and stop giving up the long ball over the top.

Discuss.

In other words, don't fire Debord, Fire Jancek!!!

 

[Rifleman]

In other words, don't fire Debord, Fire Jancek!!!

If you are forced to fire one based on this year's productivity alone, then it would be Jancek. Jancek seemed great last year. However, our DBs were rarely tested last year because our DL personnel was unblockable. Jancek did start bringing the blitzes against Georgia, so that was a bit of a return to form.

On Debord's side of the scale is that fact that we are on pace to have the most rushing yards of any Tennessee team since 1989. That is the team with Chuck Webb and Reggie Cobb! Of course Dobbs + Hurd is not a bad set of weapons either.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Thanks, Rifleman, interesting OP.

Here are the stats that jumped out at me...not focusing on delta from 2014 to 2015, just the 2015 stats on their own:

Offense - Tackles for Loss Allowed - 100th in 2015 to date (6.83 per game)
Offense - Sacks Allowed - 63d in 2015 to date (1.83 per game)

Conclusion: our OLine is holding us back from being a Top 25 team. These two stats are "root" stats...they can be at the root of the problem with other stats, like passing and running results.

Can it get better with Jones and Hall on the right side? Hope so.

Offense - Completion Percentage - 75th in 2015 to date (58.6%)
Offense - Passing Offense - 81st in 2015 to date (212.7 ypg)
Offense - Passing Efficiency - 63d in 2015 to date (133.80 rating)
Offense - Yards per Completed Pass - 65th in 2015 to date (12.04 yards)

Conclusion: passing game is anemic. Would a stable pocket (see "root" stats above) improve that significantly? Yes, probably. But the OLine isn't alone at fault. Josh has to improve his consistency too, and the receivers have got to catch balls that hit them in the hands. I know you're focused on how the Defense is our biggest shortfall in 2015 so far, and you're probably right, but our passing game bears its share of the burden, too.

Defense - Total Defense - 91st in 2015 to date (419 yards per game)
Defense - Scoring Defense - 66th in 2015 to date (25.7 pts)
Defense - Rushing Defense - 74th in 2015 to date (170.5 ypg)
Defense - Passing Efficiency Defense - 61st in 2015 to date (121.81 rating)
Defense - Sacks - 95th in 2015 to date (1.5 per game)
Defense - Turnovers Gained - 69th in 2015 to date (8)
Defense - Passes Intercepted - 76th in 2015 to date (4)

These stats scream, "where are the playmakers?" Where are the sack masters and turnover generators? Where is the intense pressure that causes the other team to make mistakes? That Moseley, Abernathy and Foreman are still works in progress should not be so surprising; they're all still young, in a job that takes canny experience. But where's the DLine's relentless pressure? That is indeed a letdown, looking from 2014 to 2015. Agreed.

I'm not sure why we as a fan base love to blame the coaches, when shoddy execution is a repeated theme for Team 119. Yes, the coaches make mistakes, including a few key ones. But some of our key players are making even more, person for person and game for game. Particularly players in the OLine, DLine, CBs, receivers, and sometimes Josh when throwing (its consistency that's needed, so sometimes he's fine).

 

[Rifleman]

Thanks for gathering and reporting these stats, I like when people use actual numerical data to make their arguments.

However, it's hard to definitively point to defensive performance as the source of our woes when the most important defensive indicator (scoring defense) has not significantly changed. That leads me to one of two conclusions: a)the defensive stats that have gotten worse don't have a significant effect on scoring defense or b)the decreases in those stats from 2014 to 2015 are not as significant as they look. I would lean towards b.

When you are:

2nd in the nation in Kickoff Returns
12th in Turnovers Lost
18th in Punt Returns
21st in Rushing Offense AND
23rd in Net Punting

you are going to help your defense avoid some points on the board that they would otherwise have given up.

Also, Georgia WR dropped a wide open game-tying touchdown and still we barely held them to win the game. This AFTER Daniel dropped one of the greatest punts in the history of UT Football.

 

[GLDunlap]

stats are for losers.

Exactly! Generally stats can be twisted to fit any agenda.

 

[McDad]

Rifleman,
Thank you for posting this breakdown. I, too, have been puzzled by the rancor against our offense over the first half of the season. Everytime offensive stats were brought up, the folks with a pre conceived narrative shouted it down. Our offense, as a whole, has been doing enough to win. With that said, I fully acknowledge:
- the problems in the passing game,
- the inability to convert a first down in the waning minutes,
- the inopportune turnovers at critical moments.
The myth of going conservative or coaching not to lose has been established and magnified through constant repetitions. Whether it is true or not, no longer matters. After the OU game, a poster (JP-82), went through the replay play by play and documented the adjustments to the offense in the second half. He found higher number of pass plays, new wrinkles to previous formations, etc. All to no avail. Others were set that we made no adjustments, coached not to lose, and went with a run, run, run and punt approach. All that mattered was the offense couldn't convert a critical down at a critical time. I hope your post will bring insight and understanding to others regarding our scheme, our offensive identity, our offensive strengths and our coaches.

 

[MaTaLa]

There were bad coaching decisions without a doubt, but this has become a narrative with the fans and press that doesn't tell the whole story the way numbers always do.

The defense also had dozens of opportunities - literally dozens I've watched the replays until I had to order more barf bags - to end both of those games and they could not do it.

The offensive play-calling was flawed in part because I believe Butch thought the defense would be even better than last year's, but somehow they keep turning into a Sal Sunseri defense in the second half.

I think Debord and Butch realize now that they will have to remain aggressive wire to wire as they were (mostly) against Georgia.

Statistically we have one of the worst defenses in the country and one of the better offenses.

That is right there in the numbers.

Good points. :good!: