Statistical chances of winning

#1
V

volinthenorth

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#1
If today's ESPN FPI predictions hold true, 5 wins for the Vols is the floor for this season. If we win half of the possible ones, we get to 7. I'm predicting we beat Pitt and Kentucky to reach 7. (Since I hate the thought of losing again to SEC interloper Missouri, I would love to beat them and make it 8.) Are these statistics reliable...or way off base?

According to this article, here is how it breaks down:

PROBABLE WINS (5):
Bowling Green: 97.6%
Tennessee Tech: 99.3%
South Carolina: 68.6%
South Alabama: 93.1%
Vandy: 87.4%

POSSIBLE WINS (4):
Pitt: 51.9%
Missouri: 40.9%
Ole Miss: 41.8%
Kentucky: 41.4%

LIKELY LOSSES (3):
Florida: 16.2%
Bama: 4.4%
Georgia: 18.2%
 
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#3
#3
I think the probability of beating Pitt should be a little higher and I think the probability of beating SC should be a lower.

Everything else seems reasonable.
 
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#10
#10
Jaws said:
I think the probability of beating Pitt should be a little higher and I think the probability of beating SC should be a lower.

Everything else seems reasonable.
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If the game was in Columbia, I could maybe see that, but we won @SC last year with a really bad team and they're in the same boat as us with a coaching change.
 
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#12
#12
GAVol said:
If the game was in Columbia, I could maybe see that, but we won @SC last year with a really bad team and they're in the same boat as us with a coaching change.
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Fair points, I definitely think UT should be favored, but 69% just seemed a little on the high side. I’d say somewhere around 60% would be better. I also think the probability of beating Pitt should be around 60% instead of 52%.
 
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#16
#16
volinthenorth said:
If today's ESPN FPI predictions hold true, 5 wins for the Vols is the floor for this season. If we win half of the possible ones, we get to 7. I'm predicting we beat Pitt and Kentucky to reach 7. (Since I hate the thought of losing again to SEC interloper Missouri, I would love to beat them and make it 8.) Are these statistics reliable...or way off base?

According to this article, here is how it breaks down:

PROBABLE WINS (5):
Bowling Green: 97.6%
Tennessee Tech: 99.3%
South Carolina: 68.6%
South Alabama: 93.1%
Vandy: 87.4%

POSSIBLE WINS (4):
Pitt: 51.9%
Missouri: 40.9%
Ole Miss: 41.8%
Kentucky: 41.4%

LIKELY LOSSES (3):
Florida: 16.2%
Bama: 4.4%
Georgia: 18.2%
Click to expand...
I've been saying 6-8 wins the whole time.... and that there were 9 potential wins on the schedule.

The only two surprises are that Ole Miss isn't a much less likely win than UK and MU. I would have thought those games closer to 50% and Ole Miss under 40%.
 
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#17
#17
Why still all the hate against JG? Fantastic kid and a gamer but fans have thrown this splendid kid under the bus the entire time he's been on campus and on the team. Does it make you feel better to tear someone down who did something you never could? Do you have to belittle someone to feel better about yourself? Hate to say it but people on this board have issues and they need to seek help. JMHO
 
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#18
#18
VolunteerNut said:
Why still all the hate against JG? Fantastic kid and a gamer but fans have thrown this splendid kid under the bus the entire time he's been on campus and on the team. Does it make you feel better to tear someone down who did something you never could? Do you have to belittle someone to feel better about yourself? Hate to say it but people on this board have issues and they need to seek help. JMHO
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I don’t hate JG at all but to say he was a gamer is like saying Jeremy Pruitt was a good coach. Gamers show up in big games. I was able to meet JG a few years back and he seemed like a very friendly person. He is just not a good QB.
 
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#19
#19
16.2% against UF is extremely low IMO. I can’t imagine them having more than 8 or 9 wins this season and the predictions are showing that we will be a 6 or 7 win team. If a lot of the reasoning is because we’ve played UF like doodoo over the past 20+ years than that’s fine but the talent gap isn’t that wide. The percentage should be somewhere in the 30-35% range.
 
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#22
#22
VolunteerNut said:
Why still all the hate against JG? Fantastic kid and a gamer but fans have thrown this splendid kid under the bus the entire time he's been on campus and on the team. Does it make you feel better to tear someone down who did something you never could? Do you have to belittle someone to feel better about yourself? Hate to say it but people on this board have issues and they need to seek help. JMHO
Click to expand...
You must be new here
 
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#23
#23
VolunteerNut said:
Why still all the hate against JG? Fantastic kid and a gamer but fans have thrown this splendid kid under the bus the entire time he's been on campus and on the team. Does it make you feel better to tear someone down who did something you never could? Do you have to belittle someone to feel better about yourself? Hate to say it but people on this board have issues and they need to seek help. JMHO
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Gamer? You mean like PS5?

Lets stop calling 18-22 year old's kids. They are adults making adult decisions. If someone was making a personal attack I would agree with you but there's no age that's old enough to justify hatred. But it's fair game to criticize JG for his play on the field.
 
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