State Recruiting Rankings

#1
Rifleman

Rifleman

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#1
What if we look at the states and rank their talent levels for football prospects numerically? Where would Tennessee rank, and what does that mean for us going forward?

I used the Rivals points system to rank the top 35 states 2011-2013. My method: I gave each state points for the top 50 recruits each year and averaged the annual scores. I think this gives a pretty good picture of the talent differentials state to state, and taking a 3-year period into account smoothes out any 1-year anomalies. Note, this includes JUCO players as well, and several states benefit from that addition.

(Rivals Rating = Points)

6.1 = 150 points
6.0 = 135 points
5.9 = 120 points
5.8 = 105 points
5.7 = 90 points
5.6 = 75 points
5.5 = 60 points
5.4 = 45 points
5.3 = 30 points
5.2 = 15 points

Here are the ranks:

Rank. State AVG (Top 50 Recruits per State Rated Each Year)
1. Florida 5765
2. California 5508
3. Texas 5463
4. Georgia 5075
5. Ohio 4700
6. Virginia 4295
7. Louisiana 4170
8. Alabama 4005
9. Mississippi 3995
10. North Carolina 3965
11. Arizona 3625
12. Pennsylvania 3605
13. Illinois 3585
14. New Jersey 3390
15. Michigan 3340
16. Kansas 3235
17. Maryland 3075
18. Tennessee 3015
19. South Carolina 2835
20. Oklahoma 2645
21. New York 2525
22. Indiana 2480
23. Washington 2265
24. Utah 2070
25. Missouri 1970
26. Arkansas 1615
27. Iowa 1480
28. Kentucky 1390
29. Colorado 1350
30. Oregon 1235
31. Massachusetts 1230
32. Wisconsin 1180
33. Nevada 870
34. Connecticut 820
35. Minnesota 795

SEC States
1. Florida 5765
3. Texas 5463
4. Georgia 5075
7. Louisiana 4170
8. Alabama 4005
9. Mississippi 3995
18. Tennessee 3015
19. South Carolina 2835
25. Missouri 1970
26. Arkansas 1615
28. Kentucky 1390

So what does it mean. Clearly, we have fewer local D1 prospects than many of our opponents, but the state talent is improving. When 2014 and 2015 are added to this rating, we will move up. Another thing to consider is the extent to which Coach Jones has been able to lock down the state. This gives us another edge. Our Vol commits from Tennessee for 2014 would be enough to rank 33rd on the above list.

How many of the top 10 in-state Rivals prospects has each SEC school signed, by state?

Alabama:
Bama - 3
Barn - 4
Two unsigned, and Butch stole one here, too! :)

Arkansas:
Hawgs - 4
Bama stole 1, Memphis 1, Tulsa 2. Arky State signed 2.

Florida:
Florida - 1
Miami got 3, Florida St. 1. Bama, Georgia and Clemson stole 1 each and 1 still mulling it over.

Georgia:
Georgia - 1
Clemson thieved 4, Auburn 1, Kentucky 1, and 2 are uncommitted.

Kentucky:
Kentucky - 2
Louisville took 1, Western Kentucky 2. Vandy and Ohio State each stole 1. 3 uncommitted.

Louisiana:
LSU - 3
Bama has poached 2 so far. The remaining 5 are up for grabs.

Mississippi:
Ole Miss - 4
Miss St. - 1
Auburn and Texas A&m both with 1 steal. 3 uncommitted.

Missouri:
Mizzou - 2
K-State poached 2. Arky, Nebraska and Iowa 1 each. Three still waiting.

South Carolina:
Gamecocks:3
Clemson kept 1. Georgia, Florida, Florida State, Bama and Kentucky all took 1.

Texas:
A&M: 2
Baylor kept 2. LSU and Ohio State stole 1 each. 3 uncommitted.

Tennessee:
Tennessee - 7
Vanderbilt - 2
One going to Notre Dame

Based on all this, I'd say the strategy of locking down the in-state top 10 every year and filling in with out-of-state recruits will definitely work. The key question is: Can we build a wall around the state like we did this year or will the rest of the SEC storm the gates?
 
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#4
#4
alwaysvol said:
nice stats, I'm kind of suprised we are higher than SC, with instate talent.
Click to expand...

Me too.

One way to look at it is by population. Tennessee is 17th in population, and about the same in recruiting. So we are really just finally at the point where in-state talent equals expectations.

South Carolina is 24th in population, so they are performing above expectations and have more talent per capita.
 
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#5
#5
According to this texas hasnt landed a single top 10 player from their own state yet. no wonder mack is on the way out:eek:lol:
 
#6
#6
Did you incluce Jucos in this? That is the only way I see Arizona and Kansas being that high.
 
#7
#7
Oh and dont forget weve poached two of the #13 states (illinois) top 5 players in hendrix and helm.....
 
#8
#8
I like your thoroughness. Nice report. I always thought Mississippi had the highest per capita talent and it looks like your report verifies that.
 
#10
#10
pricevol5 said:
Did you incluce Jucos in this? That is the only way I see Arizona and Kansas being that high.
Click to expand...

Yes, JUCOs are included. Mississippi, Arizona, Kansas, and Iowa benefit most from this.

Even if these players originally came from other states, these JUCO programs are boons for the in-state teams. See what Coach Snyder at K-State has done over the years mining Kansas JUCOs, for example.
 
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#13
#13
dude this is great and am very thankful...but you need to get out and do something fun.
 
#14
#14
Thanks for the work and analysis. If we could have more posts like this with good information instead of the petty arguing and sniping over who is lying, stupid or worse, VN would be much more enjoyable. For me, at least. JMO.
 
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#18
#18
volroadwarrior said:
Thanks for the work and analysis. If we could have more posts like this with good information instead of the petty arguing and sniping over who is lying, stupid or worse, VN would be much more enjoyable. For me, at least. JMO.
Click to expand...

I agree. Too much in-fighting here. Remember, its Bama girls that shoot & kill Bama fans for not caring enough, not Tennesseans!
 
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#19
#19
Rifleman said:
What if we look at the states and rank their talent levels for football prospects numerically? Where would Tennessee rank, and what does that mean for us going forward?

I used the Rivals points system to rank the top 35 states 2011-2013. My method: I gave each state points for the top 50 recruits each year and averaged the annual scores. I think this gives a pretty good picture of the talent differentials state to state, and taking a 3-year period into account smoothes out any 1-year anomalies. Note, this includes JUCO players as well, and several states benefit from that addition.

(Rivals Rating = Points)

6.1 = 150 points
6.0 = 135 points
5.9 = 120 points
5.8 = 105 points
5.7 = 90 points
5.6 = 75 points
5.5 = 60 points
5.4 = 45 points
5.3 = 30 points
5.2 = 15 points

Here are the ranks:

Rank. State AVG (Top 50 Recruits per State Rated Each Year)
1. Florida 5765
2. California 5508
3. Texas 5463
4. Georgia 5075
5. Ohio 4700
6. Virginia 4295
7. Louisiana 4170
8. Alabama 4005
9. Mississippi 3995
10. North Carolina 3965
11. Arizona 3625
12. Pennsylvania 3605
13. Illinois 3585
14. New Jersey 3390
15. Michigan 3340
16. Kansas 3235
17. Maryland 3075
18. Tennessee 3015
19. South Carolina 2835
20. Oklahoma 2645
21. New York 2525
22. Indiana 2480
23. Washington 2265
24. Utah 2070
25. Missouri 1970
26. Arkansas 1615
27. Iowa 1480
28. Kentucky 1390
29. Colorado 1350
30. Oregon 1235
31. Massachusetts 1230
32. Wisconsin 1180
33. Nevada 870
34. Connecticut 820
35. Minnesota 795

SEC States
1. Florida 5765
3. Texas 5463
4. Georgia 5075
7. Louisiana 4170
8. Alabama 4005
9. Mississippi 3995
18. Tennessee 3015
19. South Carolina 2835
25. Missouri 1970
26. Arkansas 1615
28. Kentucky 1390

So what does it mean. Clearly, we have fewer local D1 prospects than many of our opponents, but the state talent is improving. When 2014 and 2015 are added to this rating, we will move up. Another thing to consider is the extent to which Coach Jones has been able to lock down the state. This gives us another edge. Our Vol commits from Tennessee for 2014 would be enough to rank 33rd on the above list.

How many of the top 10 in-state Rivals prospects has each SEC school signed, by state?

Alabama:
Bama - 3
Barn - 4
Two unsigned, and Butch stole one here, too! :)

Arkansas:
Hawgs - 4
Bama stole 1, Memphis 1, Tulsa 2. Arky State signed 2.

Florida:
Florida - 1
Miami got 3, Florida St. 1. Bama, Georgia and Clemson stole 1 each and 1 still mulling it over.

Georgia:
Georgia - 1
Clemson thieved 4, Auburn 1, Kentucky 1, and 2 are uncommitted.

Kentucky:
Kentucky - 2
Louisville took 1, Western Kentucky 2. Vandy and Ohio State each stole 1. 3 uncommitted.

Louisiana:
LSU - 3
Bama has poached 2 so far. The remaining 5 are up for grabs.

Mississippi:
Ole Miss - 4
Miss St. - 1
Auburn and Texas A&m both with 1 steal. 3 uncommitted.

Missouri:
Mizzou - 2
K-State poached 2. Arky, Nebraska and Iowa 1 each. Three still waiting.

South Carolina:
Gamecocks:3
Clemson kept 1. Georgia, Florida, Florida State, Bama and Kentucky all took 1.

Texas:
A&M: 2
Baylor kept 2. LSU and Ohio State stole 1 each. 3 uncommitted.

Tennessee:
Tennessee - 7
Vanderbilt - 2
One going to Notre Dame

Based on all this, I'd say the strategy of locking down the in-state top 10 every year and filling in with out-of-state recruits will definitely work. The key question is: Can we build a wall around the state like we did this year or will the rest of the SEC storm the gates?
Click to expand...

Nice stats, wish I had this much time on my hands to do something like this.... :rock:
 
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#22
#22
HuntlandVolinColo said:
The thing that is missing is that FL, GA, CA and TX have so many great recruits beyond the top 50 in state.
Click to expand...

True. I argued with myself whether I should go to all ranked recruits, but decided I wanted to compare the top levels of each state instead of how many D1 prospects a state has.

You can find good 3 stars in most of these states, but you can only find 4-stars 50 deep in Florida, California, Texas, and Georgia. That, in my opinion is what make these state's special. Any of the top 50 from those state's have the potential to be game changers.
 
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#24
#24
This puts this change of in-state talent in stark relief:

Rivals 250 Prospects from Tennessee by Year

2002 = 1
2003 = 2
2004 = 1
2005 = 2
2006 = 3
2007 = 6
2008 = 2
2009 = 2
2010 = 3
2011 = 2
2012 = 4
2013 = 7
2014 = 7
2015 = 11

Butch arrives in a 3 year period when we have about as much top 250 talent as in the prior 10 years. When he stood at the podium and talked about building a fence around Tennessee I thought he was uninformed as to the quality of recruits available in-state. Clearly, that has changed.
 
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