Spreads against Florida since 1994 and results

#1
BanditVol

BanditVol

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#1
1994 + 5 Loss
1995 + 7 Loss
1996 - 3 Loss
1997 +4 Loss
1998 +3 Win
1999 +2 Loss
2000 +3 Loss
2001 + 17 Win
2002 - 5 Loss
2003 + 3 Win
2004 - 3 Win
2005 +6 Loss
2006 +3 Loss
2007 + 7 Loss
2008 + 7 Loss
2009 +30 Loss
2010 +13 Loss
2011 + 9 Loss
2012 - 3 Loss
2013 +16 Loss
2014 -2 Loss
2015 E Loss
2016 -4 Win
2017 + 4 Loss
2018 + 3 Loss
2019 + 14 Loss
2020 + 17 Loss
2021 + 19 Loss
2022 -10 Win
2023 - 5 Loss

Summary:

in 30 years they were favored 21 times us 8, and one Even

We won as a dog 3 times, so 3-19 as the dog

We won as a favorite 3 times, so 3-5 as favorite

They won the tossup so 0-1 when its even

Overall 6-24 (sigh)

Bottom line 6-24 when we were favored 8 times, and even once, is not as one-sided as I would have imagined. The game has typically gone as expected.

Only once in 30 years (2022) have we been a double digit favorite (-10), and we won.

Biggest win as a dog was 2001 (+17!)

This year's -15 (from a few hours ago, may have changed) is the highest in 30 years and likely since we began playing them annually in 1990.

Just FYA...this gives some insight into all the talk about how we should have beaten them more. We should have, but its not as bad as I thought it might have been using spreads as a metric.
 
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#2
#2
BanditVol said:
1994 + 5 Loss
1995 + 7 Loss
1996 - 3 Loss
1997 +4 Loss
1998 +3 Win
1999 +2 Loss
2000 +3 Loss
2001 + 17 Win
2002 - 5 Loss
2003 + 3 Win
2004 - 3 Win
2005 +6 Loss
2006 +3 Loss
2007 + 7 Loss
2008 + 7 Loss
2009 +30 Loss
2010 +13 Loss
2011 + 9 Loss
2012 - 3 Loss
2013 +16 Loss
2014 -2 Loss
2015 E Loss
2016 -4 Win
2017 + 4 Loss
2018 + 3 Loss
2019 + 14 Loss
2020 + 17 Loss
2021 + 19 Loss
2022 -10 Win
2023 - 5 Loss

Summary:

in 30 years they were favored 21 times us 8, and one Even

We won as a dog 3 times, so 3-19 as the dog

We won as a favorite 3 times, so 3-5 as favorite

They won the tossup so 0-1 when its even

Overall 6-24 (sigh)

Bottom line 6-24 when we were favored 8 times, and even once, is not as one-sided as I would have imagined. The game has typically gone as expected.

Only once in 30 years (2022) have we been a double digit favorite (-10), and we won.

Biggest win as a dog was 2001 (+17!)

This year's -15 (from a few hours ago, may have changed) is the highest in 30 years and likely since we began playing them annually in 1990.

Just FYA...this gives some insight into all the talk about how we should have beaten them more. We should have, but its not as bad as I thought it might have been using spreads as a metric.
Click to expand...
The “Florida curse” would more appropriately be called the Dooley-Jones-Pruitt curse.
 
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#3
#3
VAVol85 said:
The “Florida curse” would more appropriately be called the Dooley-Jones-Pruitt curse.
Click to expand...
Yep! in those years we were 1-2 as a favorite and also lost the year it was Even. Lost twice as a favorite under Fulmer, and once under Heupel
 
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#4
#4
VAVol85 said:
The “Florida curse” would more appropriately be called the Dooley-Jones-Pruitt curse.
Click to expand...

It's not even a curse for them. The favorite doesn't always win. 6 wins while being favored only 8 times is an expected result. A curse would be if we were favored 21 times in the last 30 years and only won 6 times.

These numbers prove what I've been saying all week. Florida hasnt beaten us repeatedly for the last 30 years because of a curse. Its because they've been the better program more often than not. And the few times we've been better we've beaten them. This year we're way better and thus should win.
 
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#5
#5
BanditVol said:
1994 + 5 Loss
1995 + 7 Loss
1996 - 3 Loss
1997 +4 Loss
1998 +3 Win
1999 +2 Loss
2000 +3 Loss
2001 + 17 Win
2002 - 5 Loss
2003 + 3 Win
2004 - 3 Win
2005 +6 Loss
2006 +3 Loss
2007 + 7 Loss
2008 + 7 Loss
2009 +30 Loss
2010 +13 Loss
2011 + 9 Loss
2012 - 3 Loss
2013 +16 Loss
2014 -2 Loss
2015 E Loss
2016 -4 Win
2017 + 4 Loss
2018 + 3 Loss
2019 + 14 Loss
2020 + 17 Loss
2021 + 19 Loss
2022 -10 Win
2023 - 5 Loss

Summary:

in 30 years they were favored 21 times us 8, and one Even

We won as a dog 3 times, so 3-19 as the dog

We won as a favorite 3 times, so 3-5 as favorite

They won the tossup so 0-1 when its even

Overall 6-24 (sigh)

Bottom line 6-24 when we were favored 8 times, and even once, is not as one-sided as I would have imagined. The game has typically gone as expected.

Only once in 30 years (2022) have we been a double digit favorite (-10), and we won.

Biggest win as a dog was 2001 (+17!)

This year's -15 (from a few hours ago, may have changed) is the highest in 30 years and likely since we began playing them annually in 1990.

Just FYA...this gives some insight into all the talk about how we should have beaten them more. We should have, but its not as bad as I thought it might have been using spreads as a metric.
Click to expand...

Great post. I think you've conclusively proven this series is not about a curse or Florida having a mental edge. Tennessee has just been the lesser program for most of the last 30 years and the sportsbooks have stated as much. Being only favored in 8 out of 30 matches and winning 6 is an expected result. Not a curse. And not a mental edge.
 
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#7
#7
Should have won in 2006, 2014, 2015.

There were a few other years we should have been more competitive than we were (last year as an example) and then some of them, went about as expected.

I dont think any sane Vols fan thinks we should have an even series with them based on what each side has trotted out there over the years, but people are crazy if they don't think we never seem to play well against them, because we rarely do. And it's fair to expect more. Outside of Spurrier and Meyer, they have not exactly been world beaters. They were decent under Mullen.
 
#8
#8
I don’t understand this spread. If we were playing at the level most of thought we would be, I could understand it. After 2 games in which we have scored a total of 39 points, I have a hard time expecting us to win by 15. I expected it to be bet down. It may happen, something like 29-14, but I think the bookies are seeing something I don’t. I get that it’s in Neyland, but Florida has a winning record there over the past few years. I hope the Vols find their mojo and blow the Gators out by 40, but I’ll settle for a win.
 
#10
#10
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
It's not even a curse for them. The favorite doesn't always win. 6 wins while being favored only 8 times is an expected result. A curse would be if we were favored 21 times in the last 30 years and only won 6 times.

These numbers prove what I've been saying all week. Florida hasnt beaten us repeatedly for the last 30 years because of a curse. Its because they've been the better program more often than not. And the few times we've been better we've beaten them. This year we're way better and thus should win.
Click to expand...
One way to think about it though is that they managed to win 5 out of 8 when we were favored, but we could only win 3 of 22. That is quite a contrast when you put it that way.

Still...though we probably should have won about a half dozen more in the 30 year stretch, they were favored way more than us.
 
#11
#11
When we were basically even (+/-3) or favored, we were only 5-9. Agree that overall we should have 5-6 more wins.
 
#12
#12
BanditVol said:
One way to think about it though is that they managed to win 5 out of 8 when we were favored, but we could only win 3 of 22. That is quite a contrast when you put it that way.

Still...though we probably should have won about a half dozen more in the 30 year stretch, they were favored way more than us.
Click to expand...

Also the size of spreads matter. It's easier to win as a 3 point underdog than a 7+ point underdog.
 
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#13
#13
Volizona said:
When we were basically even (+/-3) or favored, we were only 5-9. Agree that overall we should have 5-6 more wins.
Click to expand...

Should? Yes. But not out of ordinary. If we were 0-14 in those games then it would be unusual. But variance around the average is normal. 7-7 is the expected result. But 5-9 is normal.
 
#14
#14
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Great post. I think you've conclusively proven this series is not about a curse or Florida having a mental edge. Tennessee has just been the lesser program for most of the last 30 years and the sportsbooks have stated as much. Being only favored in 8 out of 30 matches and winning 6 is an expected result. Not a curse. And not a mental edge.
Click to expand...
Boy this hurts to agree w your post but how can one ignore the truth about the Gators dominance over us? And dominance from the sideline and players on the field.

Kill the Curse Vols!!
 
#15
#15
I saw a special on Steve Spurrier ( on ESPN or Youtube ?) that highlighted his career and playing the Vols got a lot of mention. In spite of Florida beating the Vols overall when he was coach, we did knock them out of a almost certain NC one year--forgot the year..but Fulmer was Coach,. That was sweet
 
#16
#16
volfeeva said:
I saw a special on Steve Spurrier ( on ESPN or Youtube ?) that highlighted his career and playing the Vols got a lot of mention. In spite of Florida beating the Vols overall when he was coach, we did knock them out of a almost certain NC one year--forgot the year..but Fulmer was Coach,. That was sweet
Click to expand...

2001, I was lucky enough to be there.
 
#21
#21
volfeeva said:
Nah, I think it was 1998 the year we won the NC ,, Florida was ranked #2, vols #4 and we beat them of course . Was Spurrier still there in 2001`?
Click to expand...
It had to be 2001 as the winner was going to the SEC Championship game. It was a makeup game as the game was canceled after 9/11. The scheduling of the game early every year hurt us as they were the best passing team during the Spurrier years that we would see all year. Later in the year our secondary was more experienced and could have handled them. I never understood why the 2 best teams in the SEC most of the 90's didn't play each other at the end of the year. I guess the UGA game in Jacksonville threw a wrench in ever changing it.
 
#22
#22
volfeeva said:
Nah, I think it was 1998 the year we won the NC ,, Florida was ranked #2, vols #4 and we beat them of course . Was Spurrier still there in 2001`?
Click to expand...
They were also number 2 in 2001 and yes Spurrier was there. It was his last year.
 
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